Tourmaline’s reported earnings per share came in well below the calendar estimate, even as the company reported strong quarterly earnings and cash flow and raised its 2027 free-cash-flow outlook.
Tourmaline Oil Corp. (TSX: TOU) reported third-quarter 2026 results after markets closed on November 4. Calendar data showed earnings of C$0.52 per share, compared with an estimate of C$1.05—a 50.5% miss. The company reported net earnings of C$641.5 million, or C$1.64 per diluted share, and cash flow of C$788.3 million. These figures use different earnings measures, so the calendar surprise isn’t directly comparable with Tourmaline’s reported net earnings per share. The company also reported rising production, completed processing infrastructure and a higher 2027 free-cash-flow forecast.
Recent earnings trend
Tourmaline Oil Corp.
TOU.TO
TOU.TO
Tourmaline Oil Corp.
WealthAwesomeMarket cap
$24.43B
P/E
30.2x
Div. yield
3.21%
Div. / share
$2.00
52W high
$69.45
52W low
$56.61
1W change
-8.17%
Beta
0.39
Analyst Price Targets
Based on analyst covering TOU · as of Nov 9, 2026
Wall Street analysts forecast TOU stock price to rise 12.9% over the next 12 months.
Consensus
Moderately BullishBased on avg. target vs last close (formal rating unavailable for Canadian listings)
Avg. Target
C$71.16
+12.9% Upside
Previously C$71.25 on Oct 29, 2026
Current Price
C$63.03
Last close
Targets are snapshotted when they change. Unchanged figures keep their original date. Not financial advice.
Wealth Awesome Price Forecast
WA ModelStatistical 90-day price range based on TOU's historical volatility
30-Day Vol
24.1%
Annualized
90-Day Vol
24.6%
Annualized
Trend (90d)
+27.6%
Annualized drift
90d Mean
C$69.56
Expected price
| Horizon | Expected | 68% Range (1σ) |
|---|---|---|
| 30 trading days | C$65.13 | C$59.94 – C$70.78 |
| 60 trading days | C$67.31 | C$59.85 – C$75.70 |
| 90 trading days | C$69.56 | C$60.23 – C$80.32 |
Methodology: Range is calculated using 30-day realized volatility via geometric Brownian motion (log-normal model). 68% band = ±1σ, 95% band = ±2σ. This is a statistical model, not a prediction. Past volatility does not guarantee future results. Not financial advice.
Analyst coverage: 2 analyst(s) cover this name; upcoming EPS consensus is available.
| Fiscal period | Report date | Actual EPS | Estimate | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-12-31 | 2027-03-03 | — | 1.4400 | — |
| 2026-09-30 | 2026-11-04 | 0.5200 | 1.0500 | -50.5% |
| 2026-06-30 | 2026-07-28 | 0.5800 | 0.8800 | -34.1% |
| 2026-03-31 | 2026-05-06 | 0.7800 | 1.0200 | -23.5% |
| 2025-12-31 | 2026-03-04 | -1.4100 | 0.6900 | -304.3% |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-11-05 | 0.2700 | 0.6600 | -59.1% |
Investor takeaway: The EPS miss was substantial, marking four consecutive comparable quarters below estimates. But Tourmaline also generated C$788.3 million in Q3 cash flow, kept net debt below its long-term target and forecast C$1.8 billion in 2027 free cash flow at current strip pricing. For Canadian investors, the question is whether production growth and stronger gas prices can support lasting cash generation despite commodity-price swings and the quarter’s production shortfall.
C$1.8 billion
Tourmaline says its planned C$2.6-billion exploration and production program for 2027 could generate C$1.8 billion in free cash flow at current strip pricing. That’s 71% above the company’s July estimate. It’s a forecast, not a guarantee: actual cash flow will depend on operating performance and commodity prices.
Bull case
Tourmaline expects Q4 production to average 635,000–645,000 boe/d and 2026 exit production to reach at least 670,000 boe/d, including storage withdrawals. Its new Aitken deep-cut processing facility is starting up, and Q3 operating costs fell 7% year over year to C$4.48/boe. Management’s C$1.8-billion 2027 free-cash-flow forecast is 71% higher than its July estimate. The company also has room to return capital: September net debt was C$1.54 billion, below its C$1.75-billion long-term target.
Bear case
The calendar EPS figure missed estimates by 50.5%, and Tourmaline has missed estimates in each of the last four comparable quarters. Q3 production of 593,730 boe/d was slightly below guidance. The cash-flow outlook also depends on commodity prices, including international gas benchmarks. Tourmaline has flagged its exposure to volatile local gas prices and may defer or curtail production when prices are weak. Its 2027 free-cash-flow forecast assumes current strip pricing and isn’t guaranteed.
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