Tourmaline Oil Corp. TOU Earnings Miss Estimates by 50.5%

Tourmaline reported quarterly EPS of C$0.52, about half the C$1.05 estimate. But its release reported strong net earnings, higher production and a much larger 2027 free-cash-flow outlook.

Tourmaline Oil Corp. (TSX: TOU) released its third-quarter 2026 results after markets closed on November 4. Calendar data shows earnings of C$0.52 per share, compared with an estimate of C$1.05—a 50.5% miss. The company’s release, however, reported net earnings of C$641.5 million, or C$1.64 per diluted share, and cash flow of C$788.3 million, or C$2.02 per fully diluted share. These figures use different measures from the calendar EPS figure, and the available information doesn’t explain how they differ. Investors shouldn’t treat them as a direct reconciliation. The quarter also included production deferrals and storage injections, as Tourmaline aimed to sell more gas when winter prices are expected to be stronger.

Recent earnings trend

Analyst coverage: 2 analyst(s) cover this name; upcoming EPS consensus is available.

Investor takeaway: The EPS miss marks four straight quarters below estimates, but Tourmaline’s operating update and 2027 free-cash-flow outlook were positive. Canadian investors will want to watch how much the forecast relies on commodity prices and LNG-linked markets, and whether the company delivers on shareholder returns while keeping spending in check.

C$1.8 billion

Tourmaline’s 2027 free-cash-flow forecast at current strip pricing, up 71% from its July estimate. That’s a major positive, but the forecast depends on commodity-price assumptions and should be considered alongside the EPS miss.

Analysis

Tourmaline’s calendar EPS for the September quarter was C$0.52, compared with the C$1.05 estimate, a 50.5% miss. It follows three earlier quarters below estimates: C$0.58 versus C$0.88 in June, C$0.78 versus C$1.02 in March, and a loss of C$1.41 versus estimated EPS of C$0.69 in December 2025. The supplied history shows no estimate beats in the past four comparable quarters.

In its November 4 release, Tourmaline reported Q3 net earnings of C$641.5 million, or C$1.64 per diluted share, and cash flow of C$788.3 million, or C$2.02 per fully diluted share. These figures differ from the calendar EPS result, and the available information doesn’t explain why. Investors should keep the measures separate when assessing the miss.

Tourmaline generated C$60.2 million in free cash flow during the quarter. Net debt was C$1.54 billion on September 30, below the company’s long-term target of C$1.75 billion. Operating costs were C$4.48 per boe, down 7% from a year earlier and 2% from the previous quarter. For more company details, see the Tourmaline Oil stock page.

Analysis

Average Q3 production was 593,730 boe/d, just below Tourmaline’s guidance range of 595,000 to 605,000 boe/d. The company said production deferrals and storage injections reduced output, allowing it to shift sales toward stronger prices expected in Q4 and Q1. Storage injections lowered Q3 sales production by an average of 4,564 boe/d. This winter, Tourmaline plans to withdraw about 15,000 boe/d from storage when prices are expected to be higher.

As the Q4 ramp began, production averaged 630,000 to 635,000 boe/d, the company said. It expects average Q4 production of 635,000 to 645,000 boe/d and a 2026 exit rate of at least 670,000 boe/d, including storage withdrawals. An extended outage at a third-party gas processing facility is expected to cut Q4 volumes by about 3,000 boe/d on average.

Tourmaline plans to spend C$2.6 billion on exploration and production in 2027. At current strip pricing, it forecasts C$1.8 billion in free cash flow that year, 71% above its July estimate, and production growth of 4% to 6% over 2026. The company says this cash could fund dividend increases, continued buybacks and possible special dividends. Its outlook also includes exposure to international JKM and TTF prices through LNG exports. That exposure can add upside, but it also brings price volatility.

Analysis

The supplied analyst data puts Tourmaline’s average price target at C$71.11, compared with the last close of C$62.33, suggesting 14.1% upside. The rating is described as moderately bullish based on the average target and last close. A formal rating isn’t available for Canadian listings. See the analyst ratings section for details.

The Wealth Awesome statistical 90-day price model gives a mean forecast of C$67.69, based on a reference price of C$62.33 on November 9, 2026. Its 68% range is C$58.53 to C$78.29, and its 95% range is C$50.61 to C$90.54. These are model estimates, not advice or guaranteed outcomes. See the price prediction section for details. With the last close below both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, investors should weigh the cash-flow outlook against recent estimate misses, price swings and the forecast’s reliance on commodity prices.