Trisura Group’s third-quarter operating EPS matched the C$0.73 estimate. But reported profit fell, and the share price dropped sharply.
Trisura Group Ltd (TSU.TO) reported results after market close on November 5, 2026, for the quarter ended September 30. EPS came in at C$0.73, exactly matching the estimate. Supplemental coverage reported operating net income of C$35.0 million, up 1.7% from a year earlier, while net income fell 32.1% to C$26.2 million. Primary-line insurance revenue grew 12.5%, but weaker Canadian Fronting revenue and claims experience in U.S. Programs weighed on results. Shares fell 29.92% on November 6, closing at C$29.58. For more company details, see the Trisura stock page.
Recent earnings trend
Trisura Group Ltd
TSU.TO
TSU.TO
Trisura Group Ltd
WealthAwesomeMarket cap
$1.40B
P/E
9.9x
52W high
$51.00
52W low
$29.00
1W change
-27.61%
Beta
0.61
Analyst Price Targets
Based on analyst covering TSU · as of Nov 4, 2026
Wall Street analysts forecast TSU stock price to rise 86.9% over the next 12 months.
Consensus
BullishBased on avg. target vs last close (formal rating unavailable for Canadian listings)
Avg. Target
C$55.28
+86.9% Upside
Previously C$55.72 on Oct 28, 2026
Current Price
C$29.58
Last close
Targets are snapshotted when they change. Unchanged figures keep their original date. Not financial advice.
Wealth Awesome Price Forecast
WA ModelStatistical 90-day price range based on TSU's historical volatility
30-Day Vol
105.4%
Annualized
90-Day Vol
64.6%
Annualized
Trend (90d)
-50.0%
Annualized drift
90d Mean
C$24.74
Expected price
| Horizon | Expected | 68% Range (1σ) |
|---|---|---|
| 30 trading days | C$27.87 | C$19.38 – C$40.09 |
| 60 trading days | C$26.26 | C$15.70 – C$43.91 |
| 90 trading days | C$24.74 | C$13.18 – C$46.44 |
Methodology: Range is calculated using 30-day realized volatility via geometric Brownian motion (log-normal model). 68% band = ±1σ, 95% band = ±2σ. This is a statistical model, not a prediction. Past volatility does not guarantee future results. Not financial advice.
Analyst coverage: 6 analyst(s) cover this name; upcoming EPS consensus is available.
Beat estimates in 3 of the last 4 comparable quarter(s).
| Fiscal period | Report date | Actual EPS | Estimate | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-12-31 | 2027-02-11 | — | 0.7500 | — |
| 2026-09-30 | 2026-11-05 | 0.7300 | 0.7300 | +0.0% |
| 2026-06-30 | 2026-08-06 | 0.7600 | 0.7500 | +1.3% |
| 2026-03-31 | 2026-05-07 | 0.7800 | 0.7600 | +2.6% |
| 2025-12-31 | 2026-02-12 | 0.7700 | 0.7000 | +10.0% |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-11-06 | 0.7100 | 0.7200 | -1.4% |
Investor takeaway: EPS matched expectations, but that’s only part of the picture. Operating earnings edged higher as reported net income fell sharply. The share-price drop suggests investors are concerned about the strength and durability of growth, including weakness in Canadian Fronting and claims experience in U.S. Programs. Trisura beat estimates in three of its last four comparable quarters. This time, the exact match and sharp share-price decline put the focus on the business drivers behind the results. The recent-earnings trend table shows the quarter-by-quarter EPS record.
C$0.73 EPS, exactly in line
Calendar data shows actual EPS of C$0.73 against an estimate of C$0.73, a 0.00% surprise. The result follows two modest beats and one larger beat in the previous three reported quarters. But reported net income fell 32.1% year over year, according to supplemental coverage. Investors will be watching whether growth in primary-line insurance can offset pressure in Canadian Fronting and U.S. Programs.
Bull case
The operating business showed some resilience. Operating net income rose 1.7% year over year, and primary-line insurance revenue grew 12.5%, according to supplemental coverage. Trisura also beat estimates in three of its last four reported quarters. At C$29.58, the shares are below their 52-week high of C$51.00. Analysts’ average target is C$55.28, but that figure isn’t a guarantee and may not account for the latest risks. You can review analyst ratings and targets alongside the company’s results.
Bear case
Reported net income fell 32.1% to C$26.2 million. The company also faced pressure from Canadian Fronting revenue and claims experience in U.S. Programs. Trade coverage flagged a charge on exited lines and possible exposure related to DryStone Capital’s bankruptcy. These are reported concerns, not confirmed or quantified losses in the supplied earnings data. Shares closed at C$29.58, down 29.92% for the day and below their 50-day and 200-day moving averages. Treat the gap between analyst targets and the market price with caution, especially given the limited recent coverage of company-specific risks.
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