Algoma Steel Group Inc (ASTL.TO) experienced a slight decline in its stock price this week, reflecting broader trends in the materials sector.
This week, Algoma Steel's stock closed at C$5.92, marking a 2.10% drop on Thursday but a 1.68% increase over the past week. The company has been in the spotlight recently due to its financial guidance and ongoing operational updates, particularly regarding its transition to Electric Arc Furnace (EAF) steelmaking.
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Algoma Steel Group Inc
ASTL.TO
ASTL.TO
Algoma Steel Group Inc
WealthAwesomeMarket cap
$652.99M
52W high
$8.16
52W low
$4.46
1W change
+1.68%
Beta
1.65
Analyst Price Targets
Based on analyst covering ASTL · as of Sep 30, 2026
Wall Street analysts forecast ASTL stock price to rise 80.3% over the next 12 months.
Consensus
BullishBased on avg. target vs last close (formal rating unavailable for Canadian listings)
Avg. Target
C$7.63
+80.3% Upside
Previously C$7.38 on Sep 17, 2026
Current Price
C$4.23
Last close
Targets are snapshotted when they change. Unchanged figures keep their original date. Not financial advice.
Wealth Awesome Price Forecast
WA ModelStatistical 90-day price range based on ASTL's historical volatility
30-Day Vol
49.5%
Annualized
90-Day Vol
70.6%
Annualized
Trend (90d)
+50.0%
Annualized drift
90d Mean
C$7.23
Expected price
| Horizon | Expected | 68% Range (1σ) |
|---|---|---|
| 30 trading days | C$6.42 | C$5.41 – C$7.62 |
| 60 trading days | C$6.81 | C$5.35 – C$8.68 |
| 90 trading days | C$7.23 | C$5.38 – C$9.72 |
Methodology: Range is calculated using 30-day realized volatility via geometric Brownian motion (log-normal model). 68% band = ±1σ, 95% band = ±2σ. This is a statistical model, not a prediction. Past volatility does not guarantee future results. Not financial advice.
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Investor takeaway: Investors should monitor Algoma's upcoming financial results and the implications of its operational transition, as the company continues to adapt to the evolving steel market.
C$5.92
Algoma Steel's stock is currently 39% of its 52-week range, indicating potential volatility in its price movement.
Bull case
Analysts have set an average target of C$7.63 for Algoma Steel, suggesting a possible upside of 28.8%. The company's shift to EAF steelmaking is expected to boost operational efficiency and profitability in the long run.
Bear case
Despite the optimistic outlook from analysts, Algoma Steel is facing significant financial challenges. Currently, its profit margin is at a concerning -71.6%, and it has a negative return on equity of -139.1%. These issues may pose risks for potential investors.
Recent Price Action
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Algoma Steel's stock closed at C$5.92 on Thursday, down 2.10% for the day. However, over the past week, the stock has shown a modest increase of 1.68%. Year-to-date, the stock has appreciated by 12.24%, reflecting a positive trend despite some recent volatility.
Company News and Updates
This week, Algoma Steel has been in the news regarding its financial guidance for Q2 2026, projecting steel shipments between 175,000 to 180,000 tons and an Adjusted EBITDA of C$5 million to C$15 million. Additionally, the company reported its financial results for Q1 2026, highlighting the completion of its transition to Electric Arc Furnace steelmaking, which is expected to improve its operational metrics moving forward.
Technical Picture
From a technical perspective, Algoma Steel's current price is slightly below its 50-day moving average of C$5.99 and its 200-day moving average of C$6.12. The stock has a beta of 1.65, indicating higher volatility compared to the market. With a 52-week range of C$4.46 to C$8.16, the stock is currently trading at 39% of its range. The latest trading volume of 373,742 shares is slightly below the 20-day average of 386,352 shares, suggesting a decrease in trading activity.
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