Fastenal's stock is on the rise following a positive earnings outlook and a recent upgrade from Zacks.
Fastenal Company (NASDAQ:FAST) is gaining today, with shares up 1.25% to close at CA$50.70. This uptick comes on the heels of a Zacks upgrade, reflecting a more favorable earnings outlook for the company.
Investor takeaway: Investors are encouraged by Fastenal's robust year-to-date performance and the positive sentiment surrounding its earnings potential, even as concerns about valuation linger.
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Fastenal Company
FAST.US
FAST.US
Fastenal Company
WealthAwesomeMarket cap
$57.47B
P/E
42.8x
Div. yield
1.85%
Div. / share
$0.92
52W high
$52.92
52W low
$38.34
1W change
+1.36%
Beta
0.71
Analyst Price Targets
Based on 16 analysts covering FAST · as of Sep 17, 2026
Wall Street analysts forecast FAST stock price to fall 2.5% over the next 12 months.
Consensus
Hold3.19 / 5.00
Avg. Target
C$48.84
-2.5% Upside
Current Price
C$50.08
Last close
Analyst Breakdown (16 analysts)
Targets are snapshotted when they change. Unchanged figures keep their original date. Not financial advice.
Wealth Awesome Price Forecast
WA ModelStatistical 90-day price range based on FAST's historical volatility
30-Day Vol
18.4%
Annualized
90-Day Vol
22.5%
Annualized
Trend (90d)
+28.1%
Annualized drift
90d Mean
C$55.36
Expected price
| Horizon | Expected | 68% Range (1σ) |
|---|---|---|
| 30 trading days | C$51.78 | C$48.59 – C$55.18 |
| 60 trading days | C$53.54 | C$48.94 – C$58.57 |
| 90 trading days | C$55.36 | C$49.59 – C$61.80 |
Methodology: Range is calculated using 30-day realized volatility via geometric Brownian motion (log-normal model). 68% band = ±1σ, 95% band = ±2σ. This is a statistical model, not a prediction. Past volatility does not guarantee future results. Not financial advice.
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Fastenal's Year-to-Date Return Surges 22.8%
The company's share price has shown a solid upward trend, with a 90-day return of 8.9%. However, it has experienced a slight decline of 3.1% over the past month as investors reassess risk.
Bull case
Fastenal's stock has grown impressively this year, with a 22.8% increase, outperforming the broader Industrial Products sector, which has returned an average of 13.5%. The company's expansion of its Fastenal Managed Inventory technology is expected to boost revenue growth and improve operational efficiency.
Bear case
Despite the positive outlook, some analysts think Fastenal might be overvalued, estimating a fair value of $48.84. This suggests limited upside from current levels. Additionally, there are concerns about potential pressure from higher tariff-related costs and weaker pricing power, which could impact margins.
Positive Earnings Outlook
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Fastenal's recent upgrade from Zacks to a Rank #2 indicates a stronger earnings outlook for the company. Analysts have noted a 2.1% increase in the consensus estimate for FAST's full-year earnings, showcasing improving sentiment among investors.
Strong Year-to-Date Performance
With a year-to-date return of 22.8%, Fastenal has outperformed its peers in the Industrial Products sector. The company's strategic focus on enhancing its Fastenal Managed Inventory technology is expected to drive further revenue growth and operational efficiency.
Valuation Concerns
Despite the positive developments, some analysts are cautious about Fastenal's valuation, suggesting it may be overvalued at current levels. With a fair value estimate set at $48.84, investors are urged to consider potential risks, including higher tariffs and margin pressures.
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