Algoma Steel reports after the market closes on October 28. Its shipment and EBITDA guidance already points to a challenging quarter.
Algoma Steel Group Inc. (TSX: ASTL) is scheduled to report results for the quarter ended September 30, 2026, after the market closes on October 28. The earnings calendar lists consensus EPS of -C$0.31 and revenue of C$320.4 million, based on one analyst. The estimated loss is narrower than the year-ago loss of C$1.14 per share, while revenue is expected to fall 38.8% year over year. In guidance issued October 1, Algoma forecast shipments of about 145,000 tons and adjusted EBITDA between negative C$10 million and C$20 million.
Recent earnings trend
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Algoma Steel Group Inc
ASTL.TO
ASTL.TO
Algoma Steel Group Inc
WealthAwesomeMarket cap
$700.54M
52W high
$8.16
52W low
$4.46
1W change
+10.69%
Beta
1.65
Analyst Price Targets
Based on analyst covering ASTL · as of Sep 30, 2026
Wall Street analysts forecast ASTL stock price to rise 66.1% over the next 12 months.
Consensus
BullishBased on avg. target vs last close (formal rating unavailable for Canadian listings)
Avg. Target
C$7.63
+66.1% Upside
Previously C$7.38 on Sep 17, 2026
Current Price
C$4.59
Last close
Targets are snapshotted when they change. Unchanged figures keep their original date. Not financial advice.
Wealth Awesome Price Forecast
WA ModelStatistical 90-day price range based on ASTL's historical volatility
30-Day Vol
48.1%
Annualized
90-Day Vol
69.7%
Annualized
Trend (90d)
+29.5%
Annualized drift
90d Mean
C$7.37
Expected price
| Horizon | Expected | 68% Range (1σ) |
|---|---|---|
| 30 trading days | C$6.87 | C$5.82 – C$8.11 |
| 60 trading days | C$7.11 | C$5.62 – C$8.99 |
| 90 trading days | C$7.37 | C$5.53 – C$9.82 |
Methodology: Range is calculated using 30-day realized volatility via geometric Brownian motion (log-normal model). 68% band = ±1σ, 95% band = ±2σ. This is a statistical model, not a prediction. Past volatility does not guarantee future results. Not financial advice.
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Analyst coverage: 1 analyst(s) cover this name; upcoming EPS consensus is available.
Beat estimates in 1 of the last 4 comparable quarter(s).
| Fiscal period | Report date | Actual EPS | Estimate | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 | 2026-10-28 | — | -0.7300 | — |
| 2026-06-30 | 2026-07-29 | -0.3600 | -0.8000 | +55.0% |
| 2026-03-31 | 2026-05-12 | -1.5000 | -1.1500 | -30.4% |
| 2025-12-31 | 2026-03-11 | -2.5400 | -1.0800 | -135.2% |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-10-29 | -1.1400 | -0.9800 | -16.3% |
| 2025-06-30 | 2025-07-29 | -0.9100 | -0.5500 | -65.5% |
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Investor takeaway: The report will show whether Algoma’s shipments and operating results matched its guidance after a turbine outage disrupted electric arc furnace production. The company said its power plant had returned to full power and EAF Unit Two was nearing production. But the forecast for negative adjusted EBITDA means investors shouldn’t assume the recovery is complete. The one-analyst EPS estimate has improved over the past month, from -C$0.44 to -C$0.31, but that’s a limited sample. Algoma beat estimates in one of its last four comparable quarters, so its track record doesn’t make a beat the likely outcome. Canadian investors should watch the reported results and management’s update on production, shipments and the EAF ramp-up.
C$320.4 million
That’s the one-analyst revenue estimate for the September quarter, down 38.8% from a year earlier. The EPS estimate is -C$0.31, compared with -C$1.14 a year ago. These are estimates, not reported results. Algoma’s shipment and adjusted EBITDA guidance offers more context for assessing the quarter.
Bull case
Algoma’s latest reported quarter showed some improvement. Q2 adjusted EBITDA was C$13.8 million, and the company posted a second straight quarter of record plate sales. By the time it issued Q3 guidance, the power plant was back at full power and EAF Unit Two was nearing production. If shipments come in close to the guided 145,000 tons and management lays out a credible path through the expected EBITDA loss, investors may see progress toward more stable operations. The EPS estimate has also become less negative over the past 30 days, though the one-analyst sample limits what that change tells us.
Bear case
Algoma’s Q3 guidance points to continued pressure. The company expects adjusted EBITDA of negative C$10 million to C$20 million, and consensus revenue implies a sharp year-over-year decline. The turbine outage and temporary power arrangements disrupted EAF production, making execution and the pace of recovery key uncertainties. Algoma’s trailing-twelve-month EPS is -C$10.15, and its profit margin is -71.61%. Its recent estimate record is mixed: it beat estimates in one of the last four comparable quarters. A smaller-than-expected loss alone wouldn’t show that the company’s operating challenges have eased.
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