Boston Pizza Royalties Income Fund is set to report before the market opens on November 9. One analyst expects earnings per share (EPS) of C$0.39. The Fund beat estimates in three of its last four reported quarters, but its most recent result fell well short.
Boston Pizza Royalties Income Fund (TSX: BPF.UN) will report third-quarter 2026 results for the period ended September 30. The one-analyst consensus expects EPS of C$0.39 and revenue of C$13.50 million. With only one analyst contributing, even a small difference from these estimates could stand out. Expected EPS is 20.4% below the year-ago figure of C$0.49, while revenue is forecast to grow 2.0%. See the BPF.UN stock page for company and market information.
Recent earnings trend
Boston Pizza Royalties Income Fund
BPF-UN.TO
BPF-UN.TO
Boston Pizza Royalties Income Fund
WealthAwesomeMarket cap
$445.15M
P/E
11.2x
Div. yield
7.14%
Div. / share
$1.46
52W high
$24.70
52W low
$18.32
1W change
+5.13%
Beta
0.68
Analyst Price Targets
Based on analyst covering BPF-UN · as of Sep 17, 2026
Wall Street analysts forecast BPF-UN stock price to rise 28.1% over the next 12 months.
Consensus
BullishBased on avg. target vs last close (formal rating unavailable for Canadian listings)
Avg. Target
C$26.50
+28.1% Upside
Current Price
C$20.69
Last close
Targets are snapshotted when they change. Unchanged figures keep their original date. Not financial advice.
Wealth Awesome Price Forecast
WA ModelStatistical 90-day price range based on BPF-UN's historical volatility
30-Day Vol
15.3%
Annualized
90-Day Vol
16.7%
Annualized
Trend (90d)
-25.8%
Annualized drift
90d Mean
C$18.87
Expected price
| Horizon | Expected | 68% Range (1σ) |
|---|---|---|
| 30 trading days | C$20.06 | C$19.03 – C$21.15 |
| 60 trading days | C$19.46 | C$18.06 – C$20.97 |
| 90 trading days | C$18.87 | C$17.22 – C$20.68 |
Methodology: Range is calculated using 30-day realized volatility via geometric Brownian motion (log-normal model). 68% band = ±1σ, 95% band = ±2σ. This is a statistical model, not a prediction. Past volatility does not guarantee future results. Not financial advice.
Analyst coverage: 1 analyst(s) cover this name; upcoming EPS consensus is available.
Beat estimates in 3 of the last 4 comparable quarter(s).
| Fiscal period | Report date | Actual EPS | Estimate | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 | 2026-11-09 | — | 0.3900 | — |
| 2026-06-30 | 2026-08-13 | 0.1500 | 0.4100 | -63.4% |
| 2026-03-31 | 2026-05-13 | 0.5700 | 0.4000 | +42.5% |
| 2025-12-31 | 2026-02-13 | 0.5200 | 0.3600 | +44.4% |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-11-10 | 0.4900 | 0.3300 | +48.5% |
| 2025-06-30 | 2025-08-14 | 0.6700 | 0.3700 | +81.1% |
Investor takeaway: The key question is whether BPF.UN can recover from its latest earnings miss. The Fund beat estimates in three of its last four reported quarters, but most recently posted EPS of C$0.15 against an estimate of C$0.41. The November report will show whether that miss was an exception and whether modest revenue growth can support earnings. The Fund’s C$0.124 monthly distribution also matters to Canadian income investors, but one quarter’s EPS does not guarantee future distributions.
C$0.39
That’s the one-analyst EPS estimate for the quarter ended September 30, 2026, and it’s 20.4% below the year-ago result of C$0.49. BPF.UN beat estimates in three of its last four reported quarters, but its latest EPS of C$0.15 missed the C$0.41 estimate.
Bull case
The Fund has a record of comparable EPS results and beat estimates in three of its last four quarters. In the latest reported quarter, franchise sales reached C$256.5 million, up 1.9% from a year earlier, and same-restaurant sales grew 2.3%. If September-quarter results show continued sales growth and EPS tops the C$0.39 estimate, investors may see the previous miss as an exception. The average analyst price target is C$26.50, compared with the supplied last close of C$20.69. See the analyst ratings section for more context.
Bear case
The latest EPS was C$0.15, far below the C$0.41 estimate—a 63.4% miss. The upcoming EPS estimate is also below last year’s result and comes from just one analyst. Franchise and same-restaurant sales growth provide useful context, but they don’t show how those trends affected reported earnings. The supplied last close is below the 200-day moving average of C$22.94, while the 50-day average is C$20.16. Investors should assess the earnings release on its own merits rather than put too much weight on a consensus based on one analyst.
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