Will Canadian Natural Resources Ltd (CNQ) Beat Estimates Again in Its Next Earnings Report?

Canadian Natural Resources has beaten estimates in each of its last four comparable quarters. Ahead of its Nov. 5 report, however, the consensus estimate has recently come down.

Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. (CNQ.TO) is scheduled to report third-quarter 2026 earnings before the market opens on Nov. 5. The quarter ended Sept. 30. One earnings calendar puts consensus EPS at C$1.40, based on eight analysts, and revenue at C$10.77 billion, based on three analysts. Those estimates imply year-over-year growth of 62.3% in EPS and 13.2% in revenue.

Recent earnings trend

Analyst coverage: 8 analyst(s) cover this name; upcoming EPS consensus is available.

Beat estimates in 4 of the last 4 comparable quarter(s).

Estimates vary by source. A recent news report cites a Zacks consensus of $1.05 per share and revenue of about $8.3 billion. These figures are not directly interchangeable, so check the source and currency conventions when comparing them.

CNQ has beaten estimates in its last four comparable quarters. But the calendar consensus has fallen from C$1.53 to C$1.40 over the past 30 days, with four downward revisions and none upward. The report will show whether production and operating performance can offset softer pricing, maintenance and uncertainty in commodity markets. For company background and results, see the CNQ stock page.

Investor takeaway: CNQ’s four-quarter beat streak and expected year-over-year growth offer a constructive backdrop, but the lower consensus and recent estimate cuts temper the outlook. Watch production, realized prices, maintenance, cash flow and capital spending—not just the EPS headline.

Four straight comparable-quarter EPS beats

CNQ beat estimates in each of its last four comparable quarters. The current calendar consensus is C$1.40 per share, down from C$1.53 over the past 30 days. Treat that estimate as a benchmark, not a promise. Published consensus figures also differ, so check the source and currency before comparing forecasts.

Analysis

CNQ reports third-quarter earnings before the market opens on Nov. 5, covering the three months ended Sept. 30. The earnings calendar lists consensus EPS of C$1.40, with a range of C$0.83 to C$1.74 from eight analysts. Revenue consensus is C$10.77 billion, based on three analysts. Compared with year-ago EPS of C$0.86, and with revenue growth estimated at 13.2%, the calendar points to expected year-over-year growth.

Recent news coverage cites a different Zacks consensus: $1.05 per share and about $8.3 billion in revenue. The available information does not explain the difference, so don’t treat the figures as the same forecast set. The calendar’s estimate history shows EPS consensus falling from C$1.53 to C$1.40 over 30 days, with four cuts and no increases. Those revisions temper the company’s recent results.

The key operating question is whether production and efficiency can support earnings if realized prices soften or maintenance limits volumes. Analysts expect total daily production before royalties of about 1.63 million barrels of oil equivalent, compared with roughly 1.62 million a year earlier. Forecasts vary by asset: analysts expect growth in thermal in situ and primary heavy output, but lower oil-sands mining and upgrading volumes. The results and management’s comments should clarify how these factors affected the quarter.

Analysis

CNQ’s recent results give the bullish case a clear reference point: the company beat estimates in each of its last four comparable quarters. The supplied history lists actual EPS of C$2.19 versus C$2.04 expected for June 2026, C$1.17 versus C$1.06 for March, C$0.82 versus C$0.70 for December 2025, and C$0.86 versus C$0.81 for September 2025. Company-news coverage credits operational performance and higher realized oil and NGL prices for supporting the previous quarter.

Ahead of this report, coverage points to higher 2026 production guidance, strong output at Jackfish and increased volumes from acquired assets. Continued operating efficiencies and potential cost savings at Peace River could also help. But synthetic crude prices may ease from their second-quarter premium over WTI, while maintenance through the third quarter and into early Q4 could limit production or raise expenses. Commodity-price swings could pressure cash flow, especially alongside the roughly C$6 billion 2026 capital program.

For Canadian investors, the report will matter for more than whether EPS beats one estimate. Production, realized prices, operating costs, maintenance progress and capital-spending discipline will show whether earnings strength is translating into durable cash flow. CNQ’s earnings and company details offer a starting point for tracking the results.

Analysis

At the supplied last close of C$74.97, CNQ shares were above their 50-day moving average of C$71.27 and 200-day moving average of C$63.86, and below their 52-week high of C$78.60. The stock gained 8.49% over one month and fell 1.29% over one week. These figures provide context, but they don’t predict how the shares will react to earnings. The supplied fundamentals snapshot lists a P/E of 13.3, trailing EPS of C$5.63 and a 3.23% dividend yield.

Analyst price targets: The average analyst target is C$75.38, about 0.5% above the last close of C$74.97. The supplied label is Neutral, based on the average target relative to the last close. A formal rating is unavailable for Canadian listings. See the CNQ analyst ratings section for more context.

Wealth Awesome price forecast: The statistical 90-day model gives a mean forecast of C$89.63. Its 68% range is C$76.53 to C$104.97, and its 95% range is C$65.34 to C$122.94. The model’s 30-, 60- and 90-day mean forecasts are C$79.57, C$84.45 and C$89.63. This is a statistical model, not financial advice or a guaranteed outcome. Its wide ranges reflect the uncertainty. See the CNQ price-prediction section.