Aris Mining reported calendar EPS of C$0.35 for the quarter ended September 30, below the C$0.39 estimate. The miss breaks a run of three estimate beats in the past four reported quarters. Production growth and the commissioning of a new plant remain key parts of the story.
Aris Mining Corporation (TSX: ARIS) released its third-quarter 2026 results after the market closed on November 4. EPS was C$0.35, 10.3% below the C$0.39 estimate. The company also reported US$144 million in adjusted EBITDA and US$419 million in cash. For investors, the earnings miss comes alongside year-to-date production growth and progress at the Marmato project.
Recent earnings trend
Aris Mining Corporation
ARIS.TO
ARIS.TO
Aris Mining Corporation
WealthAwesomeMarket cap
$4.86B
P/E
12.1x
52W high
$31.47
52W low
$14.98
1W change
+0.45%
Beta
2.11
Analyst Price Targets
Based on analyst covering ARIS · as of Nov 11, 2026
Wall Street analysts forecast ARIS stock price to rise 86.3% over the next 12 months.
Consensus
BullishBased on avg. target vs last close (formal rating unavailable for Canadian listings)
Avg. Target
C$41.22
+86.3% Upside
Previously C$41.39 on Nov 9, 2026
Current Price
C$22.13
Last close
Targets are snapshotted when they change. Unchanged figures keep their original date. Not financial advice.
Wealth Awesome Price Forecast
WA ModelStatistical 90-day price range based on ARIS's historical volatility
30-Day Vol
63.6%
Annualized
90-Day Vol
63.7%
Annualized
Trend (90d)
-50.0%
Annualized drift
90d Mean
C$18.51
Expected price
| Horizon | Expected | 68% Range (1σ) |
|---|---|---|
| 30 trading days | C$20.85 | C$16.74 – C$25.97 |
| 60 trading days | C$19.65 | C$14.40 – C$26.80 |
| 90 trading days | C$18.51 | C$12.65 – C$27.08 |
Methodology: Range is calculated using 30-day realized volatility via geometric Brownian motion (log-normal model). 68% band = ±1σ, 95% band = ±2σ. This is a statistical model, not a prediction. Past volatility does not guarantee future results. Not financial advice.
Analyst coverage: 2 analyst(s) cover this name; upcoming EPS consensus is available.
Beat estimates in 3 of the last 4 comparable quarter(s).
| Fiscal period | Report date | Actual EPS | Estimate | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-12-31 | 2027-03-10 | — | 0.6000 | — |
| 2026-09-30 | 2026-11-04 | 0.3500 | 0.3900 | -10.3% |
| 2026-06-30 | 2026-07-29 | 0.4700 | 0.4300 | +9.3% |
| 2026-03-31 | 2026-05-06 | 0.6000 | 0.5900 | +1.7% |
| 2025-12-31 | 2026-03-11 | 0.4600 | 0.4300 | +7.0% |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-10-30 | 0.3600 | 0.3600 | +0.0% |
Investor takeaway: The EPS miss fell short of expectations, but Aris had beaten estimates in three of its last four reported quarters. Investors will want to see whether production growth and Marmato’s commissioning lead to sustained earnings and cash generation. The supplied calendar data has no revenue consensus, so it cannot show whether revenue beat or missed expectations.
C$0.35 EPS, versus C$0.39 expected
EPS missed the estimate by 10.3%. Aris had beaten estimates in three of its previous four reported quarters. Comparable actual and estimated EPS figures are available for 35 quarters.
Bull case
Year-to-date production reached 217,300 ounces, up 16% from the same period last year, according to the company’s Q3 release. Adjusted EBITDA of US$144 million and cash of US$419 million provide context on operations and the balance sheet. Management said the new Marmato CIP plant was being commissioned, with first gold expected in December. On November 10, the company also reported a 28% increase in Segovia proven and probable reserves, to 1.92 million ounces.
Bear case
EPS came in below the C$0.39 estimate. The next-quarter EPS consensus has also slipped from 0.61 to 0.59 over the past 30 days. The share price is below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, and the supplied 30-day performance is down 10.62%. Mining results depend on execution, and commissioning, production guidance and project development all carry uncertainty. The supplied figures also include no revenue estimate for comparing top-line results.
Analysis
Aris reported calendar EPS of C$0.35 for the quarter ended September 30, 10.3% below the C$0.39 estimate. Before this quarter, the company had beaten estimates in three of its previous four reported quarters: EPS was 0.47 versus 0.43 in June, 0.60 versus 0.59 in March, and 0.46 versus 0.43 in December 2025. The automatically inserted earnings trend table and chart show the quarter-by-quarter record.
The supplied earnings calendar has no analyst revenue consensus, so it does not support a revenue beat-or-miss comparison. Aris reported US$144 million in adjusted EBITDA and US$419 million in cash in its Q3 release. These figures add context, but they do not change the EPS comparison.
Analysis
Aris said year-to-date production reached 217,300 ounces, up 16%. In an October production update, the company said it remained on track to reach the lower end of its 2026 guidance range of 300,000 to 350,000 ounces. Investors will want to follow production and the remaining schedule as the year progresses.
Management said the new Marmato CIP plant was being commissioned, with first gold expected in December. Commissioning is a milestone, not proof that the plant has reached steady production. Future updates will show how the ramp-up is going and what it contributes. Aris also reported a 28% increase in Segovia proven and probable reserves, to 1.92 million ounces, on November 10. More reserves may support the longer-term mine plan, but they do not determine near-term earnings on their own.
Analysis
The supplied analyst data shows an average target of C$41.22, compared with the last close of C$22.13. That implies 86.3% upside to the average target. The consensus label is bullish based on this comparison, but the supplied data does not include a formal rating for the Canadian listing. Analyst targets are estimates, not promised returns. See the analyst ratings section for details on the stock page.
Wealth Awesome’s statistical 90-day price model—not financial advice—has a mean forecast of C$18.51, below the C$22.13 reference price. The model’s 68% range is C$12.65 to C$27.08, and its 95% range is C$8.65 to C$39.61. It reports high 30-day volatility of 63.6% and annualized drift of -50.0%. These are model outputs, not estimates of the company’s fundamental value. You can review the price prediction section and the Aris Mining stock page.
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