Athabasca Oil Corp's recent earnings report shows a significant miss against analyst expectations, raising concerns about its growth trajectory.
Recent earnings trend
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Athabasca Oil Corp
ATH.TO
ATH.TO
Athabasca Oil Corp
WealthAwesomeMarket cap
$5.04B
P/E
23.1x
52W high
$12.86
52W low
$5.57
1W change
-7.71%
Beta
0.36
Analyst Price Targets
Based on analyst covering ATH
Wall Street analysts forecast ATH stock price to rise 21.0% over the next 12 months.
Consensus
BullishBased on avg. target vs last close (formal rating unavailable for Canadian listings)
Avg. Target
C$12.59
+21.0% Upside
Current Price
C$10.41
Last close
Analyst ratings and price targets are updated periodically. Not financial advice.
Wealth Awesome Price Forecast
WA ModelStatistical 90-day price range based on ATH's historical volatility
30-Day Vol
41.9%
Annualized
90-Day Vol
47.7%
Annualized
Trend (90d)
-50.0%
Annualized drift
90d Mean
C$8.71
Expected price
| Horizon | Expected | 68% Range (1σ) |
|---|---|---|
| 30 trading days | C$9.81 | C$8.49 – C$11.33 |
| 60 trading days | C$9.24 | C$7.53 – C$11.34 |
| 90 trading days | C$8.71 | C$6.78 – C$11.18 |
Methodology: Range is calculated using 30-day realized volatility via geometric Brownian motion (log-normal model). 68% band = ±1σ, 95% band = ±2σ. This is a statistical model, not a prediction. Past volatility does not guarantee future results. Not financial advice.
Analyst coverage: 1 analyst(s) cover this name; upcoming EPS consensus is available.
| Fiscal period | Report date | Actual EPS | Estimate | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-30 | 2026-07-29 | 0.1300 | 0.1700 | -23.5% |
| 2026-03-31 | 2026-05-05 | 0.1000 | 0.1200 | -16.7% |
| 2025-12-31 | 2026-03-04 | 0.1000 | 0.1400 | -28.6% |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-10-29 | 0.1400 | 0.1400 | +0.0% |
| 2025-06-30 | 2025-07-24 | 0.1100 | 0.1400 | -21.4% |
| 2025-03-31 | 2025-05-07 | 0.1400 | 0.1400 | +0.0% |
On July 29, 2026, Athabasca Oil Corporation (TSX: ATH) reported its second-quarter earnings, which fell short of expectations by 23.5%. The company's earnings per share (EPS) came in at CA$0.13, compared to the consensus estimate of CA$0.17. This continues a trend of disappointing earnings, as Athabasca has not met EPS estimates in any of its last four quarters.
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Investor takeaway: The earnings miss highlights ongoing challenges for Athabasca Oil Corp, especially in managing production levels and capital expenditures. While the company is working on its growth projects, investors should be cautious given the recent performance and potential volatility in the oil market.
EPS Miss of 23.5%: Actual CA$0.13 vs. Estimated CA$0.17
The company has not beaten EPS estimates in any of the last four quarters, raising concerns about its operational efficiency and market conditions.
Bull case
Athabasca's ongoing expansions, particularly at the Leismer and Corner projects, could lead to significant long-term growth. The company is committed to maintaining a strong balance sheet and investing in its growth strategy, which may pay off as oil prices stabilize and production increases.
Bear case
Continued misses on earnings estimates could erode investor confidence and prompt a reevaluation of growth strategies. Additionally, external factors like oil price fluctuations and regulatory changes in Alberta could impact profitability and project timelines.
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