Athabasca Oil Corp falls short of earnings expectations, reflecting ongoing challenges in the energy sector.
Recent earnings trend
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Athabasca Oil Corp
ATH.TO
ATH.TO
Athabasca Oil Corp
WealthAwesomeMarket cap
$5.34B
P/E
23.6x
52W high
$12.86
52W low
$5.98
1W change
+5.02%
Beta
0.35
Analyst Price Targets
Based on analyst covering ATH
Wall Street analysts forecast ATH stock price to rise 13.5% over the next 12 months.
Consensus
Moderately BullishBased on avg. target vs last close (formal rating unavailable for Canadian listings)
Avg. Target
C$12.59
+13.5% Upside
Current Price
C$11.09
Last close
Analyst ratings and price targets are updated periodically. Not financial advice.
Wealth Awesome Price Forecast
WA ModelStatistical 90-day price range based on ATH's historical volatility
30-Day Vol
39.8%
Annualized
90-Day Vol
42.6%
Annualized
Trend (90d)
+0.8%
Annualized drift
90d Mean
C$11.12
Expected price
| Horizon | Expected | 68% Range (1ฯ) |
|---|---|---|
| 30 trading days | C$11.10 | C$9.68 โ C$12.73 |
| 60 trading days | C$11.11 | C$9.15 โ C$13.49 |
| 90 trading days | C$11.12 | C$8.77 โ C$14.10 |
Methodology: Range is calculated using 30-day realized volatility via geometric Brownian motion (log-normal model). 68% band = ยฑ1ฯ, 95% band = ยฑ2ฯ. This is a statistical model, not a prediction. Past volatility does not guarantee future results. Not financial advice.
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Analyst coverage: 1 analyst(s) cover this name; upcoming EPS consensus is available.
| Fiscal period | Report date | Actual EPS | Estimate | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 | 2026-10-28 | โ | 0.2300 | โ |
| 2026-06-30 | 2026-07-29 | 0.1300 | 0.1700 | -23.5% |
| 2026-03-31 | 2026-05-05 | 0.1000 | 0.1200 | -16.7% |
| 2025-12-31 | 2026-03-04 | 0.1000 | 0.1400 | -28.6% |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-10-29 | 0.1400 | 0.1400 | +0.0% |
| 2025-06-30 | 2025-07-24 | 0.1100 | 0.1400 | -21.4% |
In its recent earnings report, Athabasca Oil Corporation (TSX: ATH) announced an earnings per share (EPS) of $0.13 for Q2 2026, which was notably below the consensus estimate of $0.17. This 23.5% miss highlights the ongoing struggles the company faces amidst fluctuating production levels and operational challenges.
Investor takeaway: Investors should closely monitor Athabasca's strategic initiatives and production metrics, particularly as the company navigates its expansion projects and adjusts to market dynamics. The recent earnings miss may raise concerns about the company's near-term performance, but its long-term growth initiatives could provide potential upside.
EPS Miss of 23.5% Reflects Ongoing Operational Challenges
Athabasca's reported EPS of $0.13 fell short of the estimated $0.17, marking the fourth consecutive quarter where the company has not met earnings expectations.
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Bull case
Athabasca's expansion projects, like the Leismer and Corner developments, could significantly boost production capacity and profitability in the coming years. With a solid balance sheet and good liquidity, the company is in a strong position to take advantage of future opportunities in the oil and gas sector.
Bear case
The ongoing earnings misses raise concerns about Athabasca's operational efficiency and its ability to meet production targets. Additionally, external factors such as oil price fluctuations and regulatory changes could further affect the company's financial performance.
Earnings Overview
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Production and Financial Metrics
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Analyst Price Targets and Forecast
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