Athabasca Oil Corp's latest earnings report reveals significant challenges despite ongoing growth initiatives.
Athabasca Oil Corporation (TSX: ATH) reported its second-quarter results on July 29, 2026, showing earnings per share (EPS) of $0.13, which is below analysts' expectations of $0.17. This 23.5% miss continues a trend of disappointing earnings, as the company hasn't met estimates in its last four quarters.
Recent earnings trend
Advertisement
Earn cash back with a smarter spending account
Open a KOHO account and start earning on everyday purchases — no annual fee on the base plan.
Athabasca Oil Corp
ATH.TO
ATH.TO
Athabasca Oil Corp
WealthAwesomeMarket cap
$4.99B
P/E
22.0x
52W high
$12.86
52W low
$5.57
1W change
-2.63%
Beta
0.35
Analyst Price Targets
Based on analyst covering ATH
Wall Street analysts forecast ATH stock price to rise 21.5% over the next 12 months.
Consensus
BullishBased on avg. target vs last close (formal rating unavailable for Canadian listings)
Avg. Target
C$12.59
+21.5% Upside
Current Price
C$10.36
Last close
Analyst ratings and price targets are updated periodically. Not financial advice.
Wealth Awesome Price Forecast
WA ModelStatistical 90-day price range based on ATH's historical volatility
30-Day Vol
41.7%
Annualized
90-Day Vol
47.6%
Annualized
Trend (90d)
-44.2%
Annualized drift
90d Mean
C$8.85
Expected price
| Horizon | Expected | 68% Range (1σ) |
|---|---|---|
| 30 trading days | C$9.83 | C$8.51 – C$11.35 |
| 60 trading days | C$9.32 | C$7.61 – C$11.43 |
| 90 trading days | C$8.85 | C$6.89 – C$11.35 |
Methodology: Range is calculated using 30-day realized volatility via geometric Brownian motion (log-normal model). 68% band = ±1σ, 95% band = ±2σ. This is a statistical model, not a prediction. Past volatility does not guarantee future results. Not financial advice.
Analyst coverage: 1 analyst(s) cover this name; upcoming EPS consensus is available.
| Fiscal period | Report date | Actual EPS | Estimate | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 | 2026-10-28 | — | 0.2300 | — |
| 2026-06-30 | 2026-07-29 | 0.1300 | 0.1700 | -23.5% |
| 2026-03-31 | 2026-05-05 | 0.1000 | 0.1200 | -16.7% |
| 2025-12-31 | 2026-03-04 | 0.1000 | 0.1400 | -28.6% |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-10-29 | 0.1400 | 0.1400 | +0.0% |
| 2025-06-30 | 2025-07-24 | 0.1100 | 0.1400 | -21.4% |
Advertisement
Investor takeaway: This latest earnings miss raises concerns about Athabasca's ability to leverage its growth initiatives, especially with ongoing expansion projects and upcoming regulatory changes from the Government of Alberta. Investors should think about how these results might affect the company's future cash flows and production targets.
EPS Misses Estimates by 23.5%
Athabasca's EPS of $0.13 falls well below the consensus estimate of $0.17, continuing a streak of earnings misses that began over a year ago.
Bull case
Investors might find some hope in Athabasca's ongoing expansion projects, particularly the Leismer expansion and the Corner project. These initiatives promise to boost production capacity and enhance operational efficiencies. The company's solid balance sheet, featuring $62 million in net cash and $826 million in liquidity, supports its growth strategy.
Bear case
However, the significant earnings miss and the company's history of not meeting EPS estimates could signal deeper operational issues. Additionally, planned turnarounds and lower sales volumes in June raise concerns about short-term production stability and cash flow generation.
Advertisement
Advertisement
Wealth Awesome
Timely coverage of Canadian stocks, earnings, dividends, and market movers for DIY investors. Stories are checked against exchange data and public filings.
View Full Profile →✅ Reviewed by Certified Financial Professionals
This content has been reviewed by CFA® charterholders and Certified Financial Planners (CFP®) with over a decade of experience in Canadian financial markets. All information is fact-checked against official Canadian sources and regulations.
Why these credentials matter: CFA® charterholders complete 900+ hours of rigorous study in investment analysis and ethics. CFP® professionals are held to the highest standards of financial planning competency and fiduciary duty in Canada.
⚠️ Professional Disclaimer
This content is for educational purposes only and should not be considered personalized financial advice. While our team brings professional expertise, individual circumstances vary. For personalized guidance, consult with a qualified financial advisor, tax professional, or mortgage specialist.
