Atrium Mortgage Investment Corp (TSX: AI) reported quarterly earnings per share of C$0.22, 12% below the C$0.25 estimate. It was the company’s fourth consecutive quarter below consensus, and the largest miss in that stretch.
Atrium released results for the quarter ended September 30, 2026, before the market opened on November 6. Here’s what the reported figures and available estimates show about the Canadian mortgage lender.
Recent earnings trend
Atrium Mortgage Investment Corp
AI.TO
AI.TO
Atrium Mortgage Investment Corp
WealthAwesomeMarket cap
$548.73M
P/E
11.5x
Div. yield
2.06%
Div. / share
$0.23
52W high
$11.86
52W low
$10.13
1W change
+1.98%
Beta
0.82
Analyst Price Targets
Based on analyst covering AI · as of Nov 10, 2026
Wall Street analysts forecast AI stock price to rise 7.0% over the next 12 months.
Consensus
Moderately BullishBased on avg. target vs last close (formal rating unavailable for Canadian listings)
Avg. Target
C$12.14
+7.0% Upside
Previously C$12.27 on Oct 30, 2026
Current Price
C$11.35
Last close
Targets are snapshotted when they change. Unchanged figures keep their original date. Not financial advice.
Wealth Awesome Price Forecast
WA ModelStatistical 90-day price range based on AI's historical volatility
30-Day Vol
14.3%
Annualized
90-Day Vol
14.1%
Annualized
Trend (90d)
-17.8%
Annualized drift
90d Mean
C$10.65
Expected price
| Horizon | Expected | 68% Range (1σ) |
|---|---|---|
| 30 trading days | C$11.11 | C$10.58 – C$11.67 |
| 60 trading days | C$10.88 | C$10.15 – C$11.67 |
| 90 trading days | C$10.65 | C$9.78 – C$11.60 |
Methodology: Range is calculated using 30-day realized volatility via geometric Brownian motion (log-normal model). 68% band = ±1σ, 95% band = ±2σ. This is a statistical model, not a prediction. Past volatility does not guarantee future results. Not financial advice.
Analyst coverage: 3 analyst(s) cover this name; upcoming EPS consensus is available.
| Fiscal period | Report date | Actual EPS | Estimate | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-12-31 | 2027-02-25 | — | 0.2600 | — |
| 2026-09-30 | 2026-11-06 | 0.2200 | 0.2500 | -12.0% |
| 2026-06-30 | 2026-08-06 | 0.2400 | 0.2500 | -4.0% |
| 2026-03-31 | 2026-05-12 | 0.2500 | 0.2600 | -3.8% |
| 2025-12-31 | 2026-02-26 | 0.2500 | 0.2600 | -3.8% |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-11-12 | 0.2500 | 0.2600 | -3.8% |
Investor takeaway: The pattern matters more than any one quarter. Atrium’s EPS has missed estimates in each of the past four comparable quarters, with the latest shortfall the largest. The available information doesn’t include quarterly revenue or margin comparisons, so it doesn’t show what drove the miss. Visit the Atrium stock page for company metrics. You can also compare analyst targets with the statistical price forecast, which is a model, not investment advice.
C$0.22 EPS versus C$0.25 expected
Atrium’s quarterly EPS came in 12% below consensus. It was the fourth consecutive comparable-quarter miss in the available history. The previous three shortfalls ranged from 3.85% to 4%.
Bull case
Atrium remained profitable, with reported EPS of C$0.22. The supplied fundamentals snapshot also shows a trailing P/E of 11.5 and a profit margin of 80.9%.
Supplemental headlines on the Q3 release report a mortgage portfolio of C$869.1 million. First mortgages made up 96.8% of the portfolio, and the weighted-average loan-to-value ratio was 63.2%. These figures describe Atrium’s lending mix, but don’t establish future credit performance or earnings growth.
Bear case
Atrium’s C$0.22 EPS fell short of the C$0.25 estimate, following misses of 4%, 3.85% and 3.85% in the previous three quarters. The repeated gap raises questions about how closely consensus reflects Atrium’s earnings. The next-period EPS estimate remains C$0.25.
Forecast coverage is limited. One analyst contributed to the next-quarter revenue consensus, and three contributed to the EPS consensus. The available information doesn’t show whether loan losses, funding costs or another factor drove the latest miss.
Earnings performance
Atrium reported calendar EPS of C$0.22 for the fiscal quarter ended September 30, compared with an estimate of C$0.25. The 12% shortfall was larger than the misses in the previous three comparable quarters: C$0.24 versus C$0.25 in June 2026, and C$0.25 versus C$0.26 in both March 2026 and December 2025. Atrium has not beaten estimates in any of the past four reported quarters.
The available figures don’t include revenue or margin comparisons for this quarter, so they don’t identify a specific operating reason for the EPS miss. The recent earnings trend table and chart show the quarter-by-quarter results.
Portfolio and estimates
Supplemental coverage of Atrium’s November 5 release reports Q3 net income of C$10.5 million and a mortgage portfolio of C$869.1 million. First mortgages accounted for 96.8% of the portfolio, and the weighted-average loan-to-value ratio was 63.2%. The available information doesn’t include comparable figures from earlier periods.
For the next fiscal period, the consensus EPS estimate is C$0.25, based on three analysts. The revenue estimate is C$20.07 million, based on one analyst. The EPS estimate was unchanged over the past 30 days, with no upward revisions and one downward revision.
Analyst targets and price forecast
The average analyst price target is C$12.14, about 7% above the supplied last close of C$11.35. The data describes the consensus view as moderately bullish based on the average target compared with the closing price. A formal rating isn’t available for this Canadian listing. See the analyst ratings section for details.
Wealth Awesome’s statistical 90-day model gives a mean forecast of C$10.65. Its 68% range is C$9.78 to C$11.60, and its 95% range is C$8.98 to C$12.63. This is a statistical model, not financial advice. See the price prediction section.
The supplied last close of C$11.35 was near the 50-day moving average of C$11.33 and below the 200-day average of C$11.69.
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