A&W Food Services of Canada has missed earnings expectations, raising concerns about its growth.
On July 23, 2026, A&W reported its second-quarter earnings for fiscal 2026, showing earnings per share (EPS) of $0.46. This fell short of analysts' estimates of $0.54 by 14.8%. Despite a slight increase in same-store sales growth, investors are worried about the company's performance in a competitive fast-food market.
Recent earnings trend
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A&W Food Services of Canada
AW.TO
AW.TO
A&W Food Services of Canada
WealthAwesomeMarket cap
$881.18M
P/E
16.2x
Div. yield
5.22%
Div. / share
$1.92
52W high
$37.66
52W low
$33.93
1W change
+2.89%
Analyst Price Targets
Based on analyst covering AW
Wall Street analysts forecast AW stock price to rise 7.1% over the next 12 months.
Consensus
Moderately BullishBased on avg. target vs last close (formal rating unavailable for Canadian listings)
Avg. Target
C$40.00
+7.1% Upside
Current Price
C$37.34
Last close
Analyst ratings and price targets are updated periodically. Not financial advice.
Wealth Awesome Price Forecast
WA ModelStatistical 90-day price range based on AW's historical volatility
30-Day Vol
13.8%
Annualized
90-Day Vol
16.3%
Annualized
Trend (90d)
+10.7%
Annualized drift
90d Mean
C$38.80
Expected price
| Horizon | Expected | 68% Range (1σ) |
|---|---|---|
| 30 trading days | C$37.82 | C$36.06 – C$39.66 |
| 60 trading days | C$38.30 | C$35.81 – C$40.97 |
| 90 trading days | C$38.80 | C$35.72 – C$42.13 |
Methodology: Range is calculated using 30-day realized volatility via geometric Brownian motion (log-normal model). 68% band = ±1σ, 95% band = ±2σ. This is a statistical model, not a prediction. Past volatility does not guarantee future results. Not financial advice.
Analyst coverage: 2 analyst(s) cover this name; upcoming EPS consensus is available.
Beat estimates in 3 of the last 4 comparable quarter(s).
| Fiscal period | Report date | Actual EPS | Estimate | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 | 2026-10-15 | — | 0.6600 | — |
| 2026-06-30 | 2026-07-23 | 0.4600 | 0.5400 | -14.8% |
| 2026-03-31 | 2026-05-07 | 0.4361 | 0.4141 | +5.3% |
| 2025-12-31 | 2026-03-05 | 0.6800 | 0.6300 | +7.9% |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-10-17 | 0.6200 | 0.5800 | +6.9% |
| 2025-06-30 | 2025-07-24 | 0.6100 | 0.5800 | +5.2% |
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Investor takeaway: Investors should be cautious, as A&W's recent earnings miss may signal underlying challenges, even with positive sales growth trends. Keeping an eye on upcoming earnings reports and market reactions will be important.
A&W Reports EPS of $0.46, Missing Estimates by 14.8%
This miss marks a shift from the company's recent trend of exceeding expectations, pointing to potential volatility in its earnings.
Bull case
A&W has shown resilience with a 2.1% growth in same-store sales, indicating that consumer interest remains strong. This is particularly driven by successful marketing campaigns, such as the smash-style burger promotion.
Bear case
The significant earnings miss could suggest deeper issues with cost management or market saturation, which might affect future growth and investor confidence.
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Wealth Awesome
Timely coverage of Canadian stocks, earnings, dividends, and market movers for DIY investors. Stories are checked against exchange data and public filings.
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