Barrick Gold reported adjusted earnings of US$0.82 per share for the third quarter, slightly above the US$0.80 estimate. Higher gold production and reaffirmed guidance supported the result. But increased spending on growth projects and uncertainty around some plans remain concerns.
Barrick Gold Corp. (TSX: ABX), which trades in Canada as ABX.TO, released results for the quarter ended September 30, 2026, before markets opened on November 9. Adjusted earnings per share rose 41% from a year earlier, and the company reaffirmed its 2026 production guidance. For Canadian investors, the bigger question is whether production, cash flow and shareholder returns can hold up while Barrick funds major projects.
Recent earnings trend
Barrick Gold Corp
ABX.TO
ABX.TO
Barrick Gold Corp
WealthAwesomeMarket cap
$98.36B
P/E
11.2x
Div. yield
1.14%
Div. / share
$0.65
52W high
$72.80
52W low
$47.52
1W change
+12.54%
Beta
1.20
Analyst Price Targets
Based on analyst covering ABX · as of Nov 10, 2026
Wall Street analysts forecast ABX stock price to rise 10.1% over the next 12 months.
Consensus
Moderately BullishBased on avg. target vs last close (formal rating unavailable for Canadian listings)
Avg. Target
C$65.81
+10.1% Upside
Previously C$65.85 on Nov 9, 2026
Current Price
C$59.76
Last close
Targets are snapshotted when they change. Unchanged figures keep their original date. Not financial advice.
Wealth Awesome Price Forecast
WA ModelStatistical 90-day price range based on ABX's historical volatility
30-Day Vol
46.6%
Annualized
90-Day Vol
44.4%
Annualized
Trend (90d)
+20.9%
Annualized drift
90d Mean
C$64.39
Expected price
| Horizon | Expected | 68% Range (1σ) |
|---|---|---|
| 30 trading days | C$61.26 | C$52.16 – C$71.95 |
| 60 trading days | C$62.81 | C$50.03 – C$78.84 |
| 90 trading days | C$64.39 | C$48.74 – C$85.06 |
Methodology: Range is calculated using 30-day realized volatility via geometric Brownian motion (log-normal model). 68% band = ±1σ, 95% band = ±2σ. This is a statistical model, not a prediction. Past volatility does not guarantee future results. Not financial advice.
Analyst coverage: 9 analyst(s) cover this name; upcoming EPS consensus is available.
Beat estimates in 3 of the last 4 comparable quarter(s).
| Fiscal period | Report date | Actual EPS | Estimate | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 | 2026-11-09 | 0.8200 | 0.8000 | +2.5% |
| 2026-06-30 | 2026-08-10 | 0.8200 | 0.8200 | +0.0% |
| 2026-03-31 | 2026-05-11 | 0.9800 | 0.8000 | +22.5% |
| 2025-12-31 | 2026-02-05 | 1.0400 | 0.8800 | +18.2% |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-11-10 | 0.5800 | 0.6100 | -4.9% |
| 2025-06-30 | 2025-08-11 | 0.4700 | 0.4600 | +2.2% |
Investor takeaway: Barrick’s quarter combined a small earnings beat with higher gold production, steady guidance and substantial shareholder returns. But free cash flow fell as spending on growth projects increased. Cost pressures and unresolved project decisions also remain risks. The results show stronger operations, but investors still need to watch execution and gold prices.
US$0.82 adjusted earnings per share
Barrick’s adjusted earnings per share rose 41% year over year, beating the estimate by 2.5%. The company produced 816,000 ounces of gold and reaffirmed its 2026 guidance. Higher spending on growth projects weighed on free cash flow.
Bull case
Gold production rose to 816,000 ounces, and management reaffirmed its full-year gold and copper guidance. Barrick reported US$1.2 billion in consolidated free cash flow and US$0.9 billion in net cash. It has returned US$3.2 billion to shareholders so far this year.
The quarterly dividend is US$0.175 per share. Barrick also has a year-end top-up policy tied to attributable free cash flow. These figures support the view that the company can return cash to shareholders while advancing its growth projects.
Bear case
The earnings beat was modest, at 2.5%, and free cash flow fell 21% year over year as spending on growth projects increased. Weather disrupted some operations, copper costs are expected to land near the top of guidance, and the Reko Diq project remains under review.
Barrick’s shareholder returns and development plans depend on steady cash generation. Investors remain exposed to higher operating costs, project delays and swings in gold prices.
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