Canadian Natural Resources earned C$1.65 per share for the quarter ended September 30, beating the calendar estimate by 10.7%. That makes four consecutive quarterly EPS beats. But estimates for the next quarter have softened, and the share price fell sharply over the past week, so the outlook matters as much as the latest result.
Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. (TSX: CNQ) reported third-quarter results before the market opened on November 5, 2026. Calendar data shows EPS of C$1.65, compared with an estimate of C$1.49—a C$0.16 beat, or 10.7%. The shares closed at C$68.48, down 7.7% for the day and 9.9% for the week. The available data doesn’t explain the decline.
Recent earnings trend
Canadian Natural Resources Ltd
CNQ.TO
CNQ.TO
Canadian Natural Resources Ltd
WealthAwesomeMarket cap
$141.17B
P/E
12.2x
Div. yield
3.50%
Div. / share
$2.42
52W high
$78.60
52W low
$40.50
1W change
-9.87%
Beta
0.91
Analyst Price Targets
Based on analyst covering CNQ · as of Nov 2, 2026
Wall Street analysts forecast CNQ stock price to rise 10.1% over the next 12 months.
Consensus
Moderately BullishBased on avg. target vs last close (formal rating unavailable for Canadian listings)
Avg. Target
C$75.38
+10.1% Upside
Previously C$75.05 on Oct 26, 2026
Current Price
C$68.48
Last close
Targets are snapshotted when they change. Unchanged figures keep their original date. Not financial advice.
Wealth Awesome Price Forecast
WA ModelStatistical 90-day price range based on CNQ's historical volatility
30-Day Vol
35.9%
Annualized
90-Day Vol
31.7%
Annualized
Trend (90d)
+17.2%
Annualized drift
90d Mean
C$72.82
Expected price
| Horizon | Expected | 68% Range (1σ) |
|---|---|---|
| 30 trading days | C$69.90 | C$61.76 – C$79.11 |
| 60 trading days | C$71.35 | C$59.88 – C$85.00 |
| 90 trading days | C$72.82 | C$58.76 – C$90.24 |
Methodology: Range is calculated using 30-day realized volatility via geometric Brownian motion (log-normal model). 68% band = ±1σ, 95% band = ±2σ. This is a statistical model, not a prediction. Past volatility does not guarantee future results. Not financial advice.
Analyst coverage: 8 analyst(s) cover this name; upcoming EPS consensus is available.
Beat estimates in 4 of the last 4 comparable quarter(s).
| Fiscal period | Report date | Actual EPS | Estimate | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 | 2026-11-05 | 1.6500 | 1.4900 | +10.7% |
| 2026-06-30 | 2026-08-06 | 2.1900 | 2.0400 | +7.4% |
| 2026-03-31 | 2026-05-07 | 1.1700 | 1.0600 | +10.4% |
| 2025-12-31 | 2026-03-05 | 0.8200 | 0.7000 | +17.1% |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-11-06 | 0.8600 | 0.8100 | +6.2% |
| 2025-06-30 | 2025-08-07 | 0.7100 | 0.6900 | +2.9% |
Investor takeaway: CNQ has a strong recent record of beating EPS estimates, but that doesn’t guarantee future growth. The next-quarter EPS consensus has fallen from C$1.53 to C$1.40 over the past 30 days, with four downward revisions and none upward. The share price is below its 50-day moving average but above its 200-day average. For Canadian investors, the recent earnings record is encouraging, while estimate and price trends deserve attention.
C$1.65 EPS, 10.7% above estimate
Calendar data puts EPS at C$1.65 for the quarter ended September 30, 2026, against an estimate of C$1.49. CNQ beat estimates in each of the four most recent comparable quarters: by 17.1%, 10.4%, 7.4%, and 10.7%. The earnings trend table and chart show the quarter-by-quarter results.
Bull case
CNQ has beaten EPS estimates in each of its last four comparable quarters. Its latest result came in 10.7% above the C$1.49 calendar estimate. Company news also reports Q3 revenue of $12.43 billion, ahead of the $12.35 billion estimate, and equivalent production of 1,651,720 barrels of oil equivalent per day, above the estimate of 1,631,078. The quarter’s strength extended beyond EPS. The supplied fundamentals snapshot also lists a 26.31% profit margin and a 3.50% dividend yield.
Bear case
A run of earnings beats doesn’t guarantee continued growth. Next-quarter EPS estimates have fallen over the past month, and company news points to expectations for lower profits in 2027 after a sharp recovery. Q3 revenue was also below the prior quarter’s $14.76 billion. CNQ shares fell 7.7% on the day and 9.9% over the week. The available data doesn’t explain the decline, but it shows that one quarterly beat may not ease concerns about what comes next.
Analysis
Canadian Natural Resources reported calendar EPS of C$1.65 for the quarter ended September 30, 2026, compared with an estimate of C$1.49. The 10.7% beat extends CNQ’s streak to four consecutive comparable quarters. Before this report, the company recorded EPS of C$0.82 against C$0.70 expected for December 2025, C$1.17 against C$1.06 for March 2026, and C$2.19 against C$2.04 for June 2026. These results show repeated outperformance, but they don’t establish that earnings will keep growing.
Company news reports Q3 revenue of $12.43 billion, compared with $12.35 billion expected, and equivalent production of 1,651,720 barrels of oil equivalent per day, above the cited estimate of 1,631,078. The same coverage says revenue fell from $14.76 billion in the prior quarter. These figures add context to the EPS result, but the sources report EPS on different bases: calendar data lists C$1.65 against C$1.49, while company-news articles cite adjusted EPS of $1.18 against a Zacks estimate of $1.05. These figures aren’t directly comparable.
For more on the company, see the Canadian Natural Resources stock page.
Analysis
The outlook is less clear than the recent run of beats. In the supplied earnings trends data, eight analysts put next-quarter EPS consensus at C$1.40, with estimates ranging from C$0.83 to C$1.74. The consensus has fallen from C$1.53 30 days ago, with four downward revisions and none upward. The same data shows revenue consensus of $10.77 billion from three analysts and estimated year-over-year EPS growth of 62.3%. These are estimates, not company guidance.
CNQ closed at C$68.48 on November 5. The shares fell 7.7% that day and 9.9% over the week, while the one-month change was a modest gain of 0.39%. The close was below the 50-day moving average of C$71.33 but above the 200-day average of C$64.10. The available information doesn’t explain the day’s decline, so linking it to the earnings report would be speculation. The stock page’s analyst ratings section lists an average target of C$75.38, about 10.1% above the last close. The consensus is labeled Moderately Bullish based on the average target versus the close. A formal rating isn’t available for Canadian listings.
Analysis
The next test is whether production and pricing can support earnings as estimates ease. Company news points to expectations for lower profits in 2027 after a strong recovery, while next-quarter consensus has recently fallen. Investors can watch for new estimate revisions and company commentary to see whether the outlook is stabilizing or weakening further.
CNQ’s fundamentals snapshot lists a P/E of 12.16, trailing-twelve-month EPS of C$5.63, a 26.31% profit margin, and a 3.50% dividend yield. These figures offer valuation and income context, but they don’t remove the risks tied to commodity prices, production, or future earnings. The CNQ stock page brings together company information and related coverage.
The Wealth Awesome price forecast is a statistical model, not financial advice. It gives a 90-day mean forecast of C$72.82, with a 68% range of C$58.76 to C$90.24 and a 95% range of C$47.42 to C$111.83. The wide ranges show how uncertain the forecast is. It isn’t a price target or a guarantee.
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