Canfor reported a larger-than-expected third-quarter loss. Its lumber business still posted positive adjusted EBITDA, and lower duties provided some relief.
Canfor Corporation (TSX: CFP) reported third-quarter 2026 earnings per share (EPS) of -C$0.48, missing the calendar estimate of -C$0.18 by 166.7%. The quarter ended September 30, and the company released its results after the market closed on November 3. The loss widened from -C$0.05 in the previous quarter but was smaller than the -C$0.8542 loss in the first quarter. See the CFP stock page for more coverage.
Recent earnings trend
Canfor Corporation
CFP.TO
CFP.TO
Canfor Corporation
WealthAwesomeMarket cap
$1.76B
52W high
$16.59
52W low
$10.86
1W change
+0.46%
Beta
1.58
Analyst Price Targets
Based on analyst covering CFP · as of Oct 15, 2026
Wall Street analysts forecast CFP stock price to rise 13.7% over the next 12 months.
Consensus
Moderately BullishBased on avg. target vs last close (formal rating unavailable for Canadian listings)
Avg. Target
C$17.43
+13.7% Upside
Previously C$17.71 on Sep 21, 2026
Current Price
C$15.33
Last close
Targets are snapshotted when they change. Unchanged figures keep their original date. Not financial advice.
Wealth Awesome Price Forecast
WA ModelStatistical 90-day price range based on CFP's historical volatility
30-Day Vol
28.9%
Annualized
90-Day Vol
34.5%
Annualized
Trend (90d)
-13.5%
Annualized drift
90d Mean
C$14.61
Expected price
| Horizon | Expected | 68% Range (1σ) |
|---|---|---|
| 30 trading days | C$15.09 | C$13.65 – C$16.67 |
| 60 trading days | C$14.85 | C$12.89 – C$17.09 |
| 90 trading days | C$14.61 | C$12.29 – C$17.36 |
Methodology: Range is calculated using 30-day realized volatility via geometric Brownian motion (log-normal model). 68% band = ±1σ, 95% band = ±2σ. This is a statistical model, not a prediction. Past volatility does not guarantee future results. Not financial advice.
Analyst coverage: 4 analyst(s) cover this name; upcoming EPS consensus is available.
Beat estimates in 1 of the last 4 comparable quarter(s).
| Fiscal period | Report date | Actual EPS | Estimate | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 | 2026-11-03 | -0.4800 | -0.1800 | -166.7% |
| 2026-06-30 | 2026-07-28 | -0.0500 | -0.3600 | +86.1% |
| 2026-03-31 | 2026-03-31 | -0.8542 | -0.7024 | -21.6% |
| 2025-12-31 | 2026-03-05 | -1.0300 | -1.0200 | -1.0% |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-11-05 | -1.4700 | -0.9500 | -54.7% |
| 2025-06-30 | 2025-07-31 | -0.5600 | -0.3400 | -64.7% |
Investor takeaway: The EPS miss stands out, but results varied by business. Lumber generated C$108 million in adjusted EBITDA, while paper and pulp contributed C$2 million, excluding one-time items. Lower duties and strong liquidity helped, but weak demand, tariffs and mill-related charges remain concerns. Investors will be watching to see whether better lumber prices and lower costs can offset customers’ growing caution.
C$0.48 loss per share
Canfor’s calendar EPS of -C$0.48 was C$0.30 below the -C$0.18 estimate, a 166.7% miss. It was also weaker than the -C$0.05 result in the previous quarter. Results have been mixed: Canfor beat estimates in one of its last four reported quarters.
Bull case
Canfor’s lumber business generated C$108 million in third-quarter adjusted EBITDA, excluding C$36 million in one-time items. European lumber added C$20 million. The company also had about C$1.1 billion in available liquidity. Its duty rate fell from 47.6% to 31% after the latest review, easing some pressure. Management expects capital spending to fall to about C$100 million in 2027, following major investments.
Bear case
Canfor’s EPS loss was much larger than expected, and its trailing EPS and profit margin remain negative. Lumber demand is weak amid affordability challenges and economic uncertainty. Management said higher U.S. mortgage rates have made major customers more cautious. Duties remain high despite the reduction, and one-time costs included restructuring and impairment charges related to mill closures. Higher energy and transportation costs are adding pressure.
Best next step
Keep exploring this topic
If you want to go deeper, these are the most useful follow-up pages and tools for this topic.
Broker comparison
Best trading platforms in Canada
Compare $0-commission brokers before you act on a ticker story.
Safe cash
Best GIC rates in Canada
If the story makes you want to de-risk, compare guaranteed rates next.
HISA roundup
Best high-interest savings accounts
Keep dry powder in a no-fee savings account instead of chequing.
TFSA room
Check TFSA contribution room
Shelter the next contribution before you buy.
Wealth Awesome
Timely coverage of Canadian stocks, earnings, dividends, and market movers for DIY investors. Stories are checked against exchange data and public filings.
View Full Profile →✅ Reviewed by Certified Financial Professionals
This content has been reviewed by CFA® charterholders and Certified Financial Planners (CFP®) with over a decade of experience in Canadian financial markets. All information is fact-checked against official Canadian sources and regulations.
Why these credentials matter: CFA® charterholders complete 900+ hours of rigorous study in investment analysis and ethics. CFP® professionals are held to the highest standards of financial planning competency and fiduciary duty in Canada.
⚠️ Professional Disclaimer
This content is for educational purposes only and should not be considered personalized financial advice. While our team brings professional expertise, individual circumstances vary. For personalized guidance, consult with a qualified financial advisor, tax professional, or mortgage specialist.
