Cenovus reported calendar EPS of C$1.78, 16.3% above the C$1.53 estimate. The company also reported record upstream production and strong free funds flow. A separate earnings report gave a different adjusted EPS figure.
Cenovus Energy Inc. (TSX: CVE) released its third-quarter 2026 results before markets opened on Nov. 4. Calendar data shows EPS of C$1.78, compared with an estimate of C$1.53. The company reported net earnings of $3.36 billion, or $1.83 per diluted share. Zacks reported adjusted EPS of $1.31, above its $1.21 estimate. These figures use different measures and aren’t directly comparable. Cenovus also reported record upstream production, $3.57 billion in free funds flow and $1.9 billion in shareholder returns.
Recent earnings trend
Cenovus Energy Inc
CVE.TO
CVE.TO
Cenovus Energy Inc
WealthAwesomeMarket cap
$73.14B
P/E
11.0x
52W high
$47.46
52W low
$21.26
1W change
-12.26%
Beta
0.55
Analyst Price Targets
Based on analyst covering CVE · as of Oct 26, 2026
Wall Street analysts forecast CVE stock price to rise 32.6% over the next 12 months.
Consensus
BullishBased on avg. target vs last close (formal rating unavailable for Canadian listings)
Avg. Target
C$52.60
+32.6% Upside
Previously C$52.73 on Oct 22, 2026
Current Price
C$39.66
Last close
Targets are snapshotted when they change. Unchanged figures keep their original date. Not financial advice.
Wealth Awesome Price Forecast
WA ModelStatistical 90-day price range based on CVE's historical volatility
30-Day Vol
43.2%
Annualized
90-Day Vol
38.9%
Annualized
Trend (90d)
-13.8%
Annualized drift
90d Mean
C$37.75
Expected price
| Horizon | Expected | 68% Range (1σ) |
|---|---|---|
| 30 trading days | C$39.01 | C$33.61 – C$45.28 |
| 60 trading days | C$38.38 | C$31.09 – C$47.38 |
| 90 trading days | C$37.75 | C$29.16 – C$48.87 |
Methodology: Range is calculated using 30-day realized volatility via geometric Brownian motion (log-normal model). 68% band = ±1σ, 95% band = ±2σ. This is a statistical model, not a prediction. Past volatility does not guarantee future results. Not financial advice.
Analyst coverage: 3 analyst(s) cover this name; upcoming EPS consensus is available.
Beat estimates in 3 of the last 4 comparable quarter(s).
| Fiscal period | Report date | Actual EPS | Estimate | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 | 2026-11-04 | 1.7800 | 1.5300 | +16.3% |
| 2026-06-30 | 2026-07-29 | 1.6100 | 1.6400 | -1.8% |
| 2026-03-31 | 2026-05-06 | 0.8900 | 0.7600 | +17.1% |
| 2025-12-31 | 2026-02-19 | 0.4900 | 0.3700 | +32.4% |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-10-31 | 0.7700 | 0.4800 | +60.4% |
| 2025-06-30 | 2025-07-31 | 0.3400 | 0.1100 | +209.1% |
Investor takeaway: Cenovus paired higher production with strong free funds flow and shareholder returns. But EPS figures vary by source and measure. Upstream revenue also fell from Q2 as benchmark oil prices eased. Visit the Cenovus stock page for company metrics and earnings history. The next-quarter calendar consensus is C$1.12 in EPS and $14.47 billion in revenue, based on three and two analysts, respectively. These are analyst estimates, not company guidance.
C$3.57 billion
Cenovus reported $3.569 billion in free funds flow and $5.023 billion in adjusted funds flow for the third quarter. It returned $1.9 billion to shareholders: $1.5 billion through share repurchases and $403 million in dividends.
Bull case
Cenovus’s upstream production reached a quarterly record of 1,024 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day. Oil Sands production also set a record. The company generated $3.57 billion in free funds flow and returned $1.9 billion through share repurchases and dividends. Its planned acquisition of Athabasca Oil is expected to add production and reserves if the deal closes as planned. Calendar EPS beat estimates in three of the past four reported quarters.
Bear case
The earnings surprise doesn’t tell the whole story. Calendar EPS differs from the company’s diluted net earnings per share and the adjusted EPS reported by Zacks. Cenovus said upstream operating margin fell from Q2 as benchmark oil prices declined. The supplied market data also shows CVE.TO shares below their 50-day moving average and down 7.83% that day, but that alone doesn’t explain the decline. The Athabasca deal still needs to close.
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