Swiss Water Decaffeinated Coffee reported quarterly earnings per share of C$0.0977, below the C$0.12 estimate. That ends a run of three estimate-beating quarters. But the company’s supplemental results headline points to higher volumes and adjusted EBITDA.
Swiss Water Decaffeinated Coffee Inc. (TSX: SWP) released results after the market closed on November 3 for the quarter ended September 30, 2026. Calendar data shows EPS came in 18.6% below the estimate. The company had beaten estimates in three of its previous four comparable quarters, making this a change in its recent record. The supplemental company-results headline also reports year-over-year growth in revenue, processed volume and adjusted EBITDA, giving investors a fuller picture than the EPS miss alone. See the SWP stock page for company and share information.
Recent earnings trend
Swiss Water Decaffeinated Coffee Inc
SWP.TO
SWP.TO
Swiss Water Decaffeinated Coffee Inc
WealthAwesomeMarket cap
$93.33M
P/E
21.6x
52W high
$10.04
52W low
$4.25
1W change
+11.58%
Beta
1.20
Analyst Price Targets
Based on analyst covering SWP · as of Sep 17, 2026
Wall Street analysts forecast SWP stock price to rise 2.8% over the next 12 months.
Consensus
NeutralBased on avg. target vs last close (formal rating unavailable for Canadian listings)
Avg. Target
C$10.00
+2.8% Upside
Current Price
C$9.73
Last close
Targets are snapshotted when they change. Unchanged figures keep their original date. Not financial advice.
Wealth Awesome Price Forecast
WA ModelStatistical 90-day price range based on SWP's historical volatility
30-Day Vol
64.5%
Annualized
90-Day Vol
54.6%
Annualized
Trend (90d)
+50.0%
Annualized drift
90d Mean
C$11.63
Expected price
| Horizon | Expected | 68% Range (1σ) |
|---|---|---|
| 30 trading days | C$10.33 | C$8.27 – C$12.90 |
| 60 trading days | C$10.96 | C$8.00 – C$15.01 |
| 90 trading days | C$11.63 | C$7.91 – C$17.10 |
Methodology: Range is calculated using 30-day realized volatility via geometric Brownian motion (log-normal model). 68% band = ±1σ, 95% band = ±2σ. This is a statistical model, not a prediction. Past volatility does not guarantee future results. Not financial advice.
Analyst coverage: 1 analyst(s) cover this name; upcoming EPS consensus is available.
Beat estimates in 3 of the last 4 comparable quarter(s).
| Fiscal period | Report date | Actual EPS | Estimate | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 | 2026-11-03 | 0.0977 | 0.1200 | -18.6% |
| 2026-06-30 | 2026-08-05 | 0.1500 | 0.0500 | +200.0% |
| 2026-03-31 | 2026-05-05 | 0.1442 | 0.0400 | +260.5% |
| 2025-12-31 | 2026-03-12 | 0.0900 | 0.0300 | +200.0% |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-11-06 | 0.0100 | -0.0600 | +116.7% |
| 2025-06-30 | 2025-08-06 | -0.0600 | 0.0100 | -700.0% |
Investor takeaway: EPS missed after three consecutive beats, but the supplemental results headline reports revenue up 5% to C$65.9 million, processed volume up 16%, and adjusted EBITDA up 50% to C$4.9 million year over year. These figures come from a company-results headline, not the supplied earnings calendar. Check the full filing for definitions and reconciliations. The key question is whether higher volumes and EBITDA can support lasting earnings growth, especially as the company plans to expand capacity. SWP.TO closed at C$9.73, near its 52-week high of C$10.04. Recent share performance doesn’t resolve the uncertainty around earnings.
C$0.0977 EPS versus C$0.12 estimated
EPS came in 18.6% below the estimate. Swiss Water had beaten estimates in three of its previous four reported quarters, so this quarter breaks its recent pattern. The miss came alongside a supplemental company-results headline reporting 5% year-over-year revenue growth and 50% growth in adjusted EBITDA.
Bull case
The supplemental results headline points to higher processed volumes and adjusted EBITDA, suggesting stronger activity and profitability despite the EPS miss. Swiss Water has also announced a C$6.2 million capacity project in Delta, B.C. The project is expected to increase capacity by 15%, with construction planned to start in the first quarter of 2027 and commercial operations targeted for July 2027. If demand supports the added capacity and operating gains continue, the expansion could support further growth. The company has also received TSX approval for a normal course issuer bid of up to about 650,000 shares, or 9.7% of the public float, through August 19, 2027.
Bear case
The EPS miss shows that operating growth doesn’t always translate into earnings that meet expectations. Swiss Water’s supplied fundamentals show a 1.87% profit margin, leaving limited room for higher costs or execution problems. The capacity project requires investment before its planned start of commercial operations. The company’s second-quarter release also linked lower revenue in part to lower coffee futures prices. Shares rose 16.25% over the past month and closed near their 52-week high, which could leave less room for disappointment if earnings momentum fades. Investors should weigh the recent operating gains against the earnings miss, expansion risks and exposure to commodity prices.
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