Element Fleet Management’s diluted EPS came in slightly below consensus, while adjusted earnings and cash flow grew from a year earlier. The bigger concern is its weaker growth outlook.
Element Fleet Management Corp. (TSX: EFN) reported third-quarter 2026 results after market close on November 3. Calendar data shows EPS of US$0.49, compared with an estimate of US$0.50, a 2% miss. The company reported diluted EPS of US$0.33 and adjusted diluted EPS of US$0.35. These are different measures, and the available information doesn’t explain how they reconcile. Net revenue rose 5% year over year to US$320.7 million. But management said 2026 originations would fall below its guidance range and expects 2027 net revenue growth to slow to the low single digits, excluding foreign-exchange effects.
Recent earnings trend
Element Fleet Management Corp
EFN.TO
EFN.TO
Element Fleet Management Corp
WealthAwesomeMarket cap
$7.62B
P/E
18.9x
Div. yield
2.08%
Div. / share
$0.42
52W high
$37.23
52W low
$19.11
1W change
-12.44%
Beta
0.44
Analyst Price Targets
Based on analyst covering EFN · as of Nov 11, 2026
Wall Street analysts forecast EFN stock price to rise 48.2% over the next 12 months.
Consensus
BullishBased on avg. target vs last close (formal rating unavailable for Canadian listings)
Avg. Target
C$29.10
+48.2% Upside
Previously C$29.50 on Nov 10, 2026
Current Price
C$19.63
Last close
Targets are snapshotted when they change. Unchanged figures keep their original date. Not financial advice.
Wealth Awesome Price Forecast
WA ModelStatistical 90-day price range based on EFN's historical volatility
30-Day Vol
42.3%
Annualized
90-Day Vol
36.1%
Annualized
Trend (90d)
-50.0%
Annualized drift
90d Mean
C$16.42
Expected price
| Horizon | Expected | 68% Range (1σ) |
|---|---|---|
| 30 trading days | C$18.50 | C$15.98 – C$21.40 |
| 60 trading days | C$17.43 | C$14.18 – C$21.42 |
| 90 trading days | C$16.42 | C$12.75 – C$21.14 |
Methodology: Range is calculated using 30-day realized volatility via geometric Brownian motion (log-normal model). 68% band = ±1σ, 95% band = ±2σ. This is a statistical model, not a prediction. Past volatility does not guarantee future results. Not financial advice.
Analyst coverage: 9 analyst(s) cover this name; upcoming EPS consensus is available.
Beat estimates in 1 of the last 4 comparable quarter(s).
| Fiscal period | Report date | Actual EPS | Estimate | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-12-31 | 2027-02-23 | — | 0.4900 | — |
| 2026-09-30 | 2026-11-02 | 0.4900 | 0.5000 | -2.0% |
| 2026-06-30 | 2026-08-05 | 0.4800 | 0.4900 | -2.0% |
| 2026-03-31 | 2026-05-06 | 0.4800 | 0.4600 | +4.3% |
| 2025-12-31 | 2026-02-24 | 0.4500 | 0.4600 | -2.2% |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-11-12 | 0.4600 | 0.4500 | +2.2% |
Investor takeaway: The EPS miss was small, but the growth signals deserve attention. Adjusted EPS rose 6% year over year to US$0.35, and adjusted free cash flow per share increased 7% to US$0.45. However, originations fell 2%, adjusted operating expenses rose 8%, and management expects slower revenue growth. For Canadian investors, the key question is whether new-client wins, productivity savings and better operating efficiency can support stronger organic growth. See the EFN stock page for company metrics and coverage.
US$0.49 EPS versus US$0.50 estimate
Calendar data puts EPS 2% below the estimate. In its release, Element reported diluted EPS of US$0.33 and adjusted diluted EPS of US$0.35, up 6% from a year earlier. Revenue rose 5% to US$320.7 million, while adjusted operating margin fell 120 basis points to 56.8%. The available information doesn’t reconcile the different EPS figures, which reflect separate reporting measures.
Bull case
Element’s scale and long-standing client relationships support a resilient business. It managed 1.58 million vehicles at quarter-end, up 3% year over year, and services revenue grew 5% to US$164 million. Adjusted return on equity rose to 20.2%, and adjusted free cash flow per share reached US$0.45. The company also expects to deliver about US$20 million in annualized productivity savings starting in 2027. If those savings improve operating leverage and new-client wins lead to more vehicles and service revenue, earnings could hold up better than the near-term outlook suggests.
Bear case
The main risks are execution and slower growth. Originations fell 2% year over year, and Element expects them to finish 2026 below its earlier guidance range. Adjusted operating expenses grew faster than revenue. Management also expects 2027 net revenue growth to slow to the low single digits, excluding foreign-exchange effects, and cited a headwind related to the peso. EFN.TO shares closed at C$19.63, below their 50-day and 200-day moving averages and close to the reported 52-week low of C$19.11. These figures describe recent trading, not what the shares will do next.
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