Fairfax’s calendar EPS came in well above estimates, but the company’s year-over-year profit fell as investment losses weighed on the quarter.
Fairfax Financial Holdings Ltd. (TSX: FFH) reported third-quarter results after markets closed on November 3, 2026. Calendar EPS was 74.11, compared with an estimate of 39.89—an 85.8% beat. But that figure tells only part of the story. Fairfax reported net earnings of US$929.6 million, or US$43.32 per diluted share, down from US$1.15 billion and US$52.04 a year earlier. Its insurance operations remained profitable, while investment losses, especially on bonds, pulled down earnings. For more company data, visit the Fairfax Financial stock page.
Recent earnings trend
Fairfax Financial Holdings Ltd
FFH.TO
FFH.TO
Fairfax Financial Holdings Ltd
WealthAwesomeMarket cap
$55.68B
P/E
8.8x
Div. yield
0.60%
Div. / share
$15.00
52W high
$2788.02
52W low
$2066.16
1W change
+11.73%
Beta
0.48
Analyst Price Targets
Based on analyst covering FFH · as of Nov 5, 2026
Wall Street analysts forecast FFH stock price to fall 2.7% over the next 12 months.
Consensus
NeutralBased on avg. target vs last close (formal rating unavailable for Canadian listings)
Avg. Target
C$2679.33
-2.7% Upside
Previously C$2679.29 on Nov 4, 2026
Current Price
C$2754.57
Last close
Targets are snapshotted when they change. Unchanged figures keep their original date. Not financial advice.
Wealth Awesome Price Forecast
WA ModelStatistical 90-day price range based on FFH's historical volatility
30-Day Vol
34.5%
Annualized
90-Day Vol
27.0%
Annualized
Trend (90d)
+50.0%
Annualized drift
90d Mean
C$3293.11
Expected price
| Horizon | Expected | 68% Range (1σ) |
|---|---|---|
| 30 trading days | C$2923.51 | C$2595.07 – C$3293.52 |
| 60 trading days | C$3102.81 | C$2621.58 – C$3672.39 |
| 90 trading days | C$3293.11 | C$2678.95 – C$4048.08 |
Methodology: Range is calculated using 30-day realized volatility via geometric Brownian motion (log-normal model). 68% band = ±1σ, 95% band = ±2σ. This is a statistical model, not a prediction. Past volatility does not guarantee future results. Not financial advice.
Analyst coverage: 1 analyst(s) cover this name; upcoming EPS consensus is available.
Beat estimates in 2 of the last 4 comparable quarter(s).
| Fiscal period | Report date | Actual EPS | Estimate | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-12-31 | 2027-02-18 | — | 32.9000 | — |
| 2026-09-30 | 2026-11-03 | 74.1100 | 39.8900 | +85.8% |
| 2026-06-30 | 2026-07-29 | 35.5300 | 42.0600 | -15.5% |
| 2026-03-31 | 2026-04-30 | 31.1100 | 36.4500 | -14.7% |
| 2025-12-31 | 2026-02-19 | 57.5700 | 40.8600 | +40.9% |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-11-06 | 52.0400 | 44.2900 | +17.5% |
Investor takeaway: Fairfax beat the calendar EPS estimate even as reported diluted EPS fell year over year. These figures use different measures, so both results can be true. The operating picture was mixed but steady. Adjusted operating income from insurance and reinsurance rose 2.4% to US$1.38 billion, while underwriting profit slipped to US$523.9 million from US$540.3 million. Gross premiums written increased 9.3% to US$8.94 billion. Book value per basic share reached US$1,349.15 on September 30, up from US$1,260.19 at the end of 2025. Canadian investors should weigh these operating results against investment portfolio volatility and the risks tied to Fairfax’s proposed acquisition of IDBI Bank.
US$827.7 million
Fairfax lost US$827.7 million on bonds during the quarter. That was the largest part of its US$858.7 million net investment loss. These losses help explain why reported earnings fell from a year earlier, despite higher adjusted operating income from insurance and reinsurance.
Bull case
Fairfax’s insurance business remained profitable, with a 92.5% undiscounted combined ratio and higher gross premiums written. A ratio below 100% means premiums exceeded claims and expenses on this measure. Book value per basic share also rose in the first nine months of 2026, and adjusted operating income from insurance and reinsurance increased. If Fairfax maintains disciplined underwriting and investment income supports earnings over time, this quarter’s losses may not reflect the company’s longer-term operating performance.
Bear case
Investment results weighed heavily on earnings. Fairfax recorded net investment losses of US$858.7 million, compared with gains of US$426.2 million a year earlier. Bond losses made up US$827.7 million, largely due to unrealized losses on U.S. Treasuries as interest rates rose. Underwriting profit also fell year over year. Fairfax’s proposed US$5.6 billion purchase of a controlling stake in India’s IDBI Bank still needs definitive agreements and regulatory approvals. The shares’ recent rise and the difference between analyst price targets and the latest closing price also raise questions about valuation.
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