Fairfax Financial Holdings’ third-quarter calendar EPS came in well above estimates. But the result follows two estimate misses in the previous three quarters, and the company’s reported earnings were lower than a year ago.
Fairfax Financial Holdings (TSX: FFH) reported results for the quarter ended September 30, 2026, after market close on November 3. Calendar EPS was 74.11, compared with an estimate of 39.89—an 85.8% positive surprise. The calendar data doesn’t specify a currency or unit, so don’t compare these figures directly with Fairfax’s separately reported diluted EPS in U.S. dollars.
Recent earnings trend
Fairfax Financial Holdings Ltd
FFH.TO
FFH.TO
Fairfax Financial Holdings Ltd
WealthAwesomeMarket cap
$57.46B
P/E
9.7x
Div. yield
0.55%
Div. / share
$15.00
52W high
$2788.03
52W low
$2066.16
1W change
+8.64%
Beta
0.48
Analyst Price Targets
Based on analyst covering FFH · as of Nov 9, 2026
Wall Street analysts forecast FFH stock price to rise 2.3% over the next 12 months.
Consensus
NeutralBased on avg. target vs last close (formal rating unavailable for Canadian listings)
Avg. Target
C$2767.06
+2.3% Upside
Previously C$2674.98 on Nov 6, 2026
Current Price
C$2705.83
Last close
Targets are snapshotted when they change. Unchanged figures keep their original date. Not financial advice.
Wealth Awesome Price Forecast
WA ModelStatistical 90-day price range based on FFH's historical volatility
30-Day Vol
35.0%
Annualized
90-Day Vol
27.0%
Annualized
Trend (90d)
+50.0%
Annualized drift
90d Mean
C$3234.84
Expected price
| Horizon | Expected | 68% Range (1σ) |
|---|---|---|
| 30 trading days | C$2871.78 | C$2545.32 – C$3240.12 |
| 60 trading days | C$3047.91 | C$2569.71 – C$3615.10 |
| 90 trading days | C$3234.84 | C$2624.68 – C$3986.85 |
Methodology: Range is calculated using 30-day realized volatility via geometric Brownian motion (log-normal model). 68% band = ±1σ, 95% band = ±2σ. This is a statistical model, not a prediction. Past volatility does not guarantee future results. Not financial advice.
Analyst coverage: 1 analyst(s) cover this name; upcoming EPS consensus is available.
Beat estimates in 2 of the last 4 comparable quarter(s).
| Fiscal period | Report date | Actual EPS | Estimate | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-12-31 | 2027-02-18 | — | 32.9000 | — |
| 2026-09-30 | 2026-11-03 | 74.1100 | 39.8900 | +85.8% |
| 2026-06-30 | 2026-07-29 | 35.5300 | 42.0600 | -15.5% |
| 2026-03-31 | 2026-04-30 | 31.1100 | 36.4500 | -14.7% |
| 2025-12-31 | 2026-02-19 | 57.5700 | 40.8600 | +40.9% |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-11-06 | 52.0400 | 44.2900 | +17.5% |
Investor takeaway: The estimate beat is significant, but Fairfax’s recent results have been mixed. It beat estimates in two of its last four comparable quarters and missed in June and March 2026. To assess the business, look beyond the calendar EPS surprise to reported earnings, book value, underwriting results and investment income. Fairfax’s reported third-quarter results showed net earnings of US$929.6 million, or US$43.32 per diluted share, down from US$1,151.7 million, or US$52.04 per share, a year earlier. Gross premiums written grew 9.3%, and book value per basic share increased.
74.11 calendar EPS versus 39.89 estimated
The difference was 34.22 per share unit, an 85.8% positive surprise. The calendar data doesn’t identify the currency or unit, so these figures aren’t directly comparable with Fairfax’s reported diluted EPS in U.S. dollars.
Bull case
The 85.8% calendar EPS surprise was well above estimates. Fairfax’s third-quarter update also showed 9.3% growth in gross premiums written and an increase in book value per basic share, from US$1,260.19 at year-end 2025 to US$1,349.15 on September 30. The supplied snapshot lists a P/E of about 9.7 and a profit margin of 10.99%. These figures may interest investors assessing Fairfax’s earnings and balance-sheet growth, but they don’t prove the shares are undervalued.
Bear case
The estimate beat needs context. Fairfax missed calendar EPS estimates in the two previous quarters, and its reported third-quarter net earnings and diluted EPS were lower than a year earlier. The next-quarter calendar estimate is 32.14, based on one analyst, compared with year-ago EPS of 52.04. That implies estimated EPS growth of -23.8%. No revenue estimate is available. Fairfax also announced plans to offer C$650 million in senior notes, with proceeds intended for corporate purposes that include refinancing and potential investments. Investors should watch how the company uses the debt, along with its insurance results and investment performance.
Analysis
Fairfax’s September-quarter calendar EPS was 74.11, against an estimate of 39.89, for a reported positive surprise of 85.8%. That reverses the trend of the two previous quarters in the supplied earnings history. June 2026 EPS was 35.53, compared with an estimate of 42.06; March EPS was 31.11, against an estimate of 36.45. Fairfax beat estimates in two of its last four comparable quarters, including December 2025, when EPS of 57.57 topped the 40.86 estimate.
Calendar EPS shouldn’t be confused with Fairfax’s reported results in U.S. dollars. A supplied news report on the November 3 release says third-quarter net earnings were US$929.6 million, or US$43.32 per diluted share, compared with US$1,151.7 million and US$52.04 per diluted share a year earlier. The report also says gross premiums written rose 9.3%, and book value per basic share increased to US$1,349.15 on September 30 from US$1,260.19 on December 31, 2025. These operating and balance-sheet figures add context to the calendar EPS surprise.
For more company details and historical performance, see the Fairfax Financial Holdings stock page.
Analysis
The next-quarter calendar EPS estimate is 32.14, based on one analyst, compared with year-ago EPS of 52.04. The supplied estimate implies a 23.8% decline. With only one analyst’s estimate and no revenue consensus, there’s limited information to support a broader outlook. Investors may want to focus on the factors behind Fairfax’s reported earnings, including insurance underwriting and investment results, rather than rely on one calendar estimate.
The supplied company news says Fairfax plans to offer C$350 million in senior notes due 2037 at a fixed rate of 5.00%, and C$300 million due 2056 at 5.65%. The company said it could use the proceeds to refinance or repay obligations, pursue acquisitions or investments, or for general corporate purposes. The offering was expected to close around November 10, subject to customary conditions. How Fairfax uses the proceeds and what returns any investments generate will matter to shareholders.
Analysis
The supplied analyst-target data gives Fairfax a Neutral consensus based on the average target compared with the latest closing price. A formal rating isn’t available for Canadian listings. The average target is C$2,767.06, versus a last close of C$2,705.83, implying 2.3% upside. See the analyst ratings and price targets.
Wealth Awesome’s statistical 90-day price model—not financial advice—shows a mean forecast of C$3,234.84. Its 68% range is C$2,624.68 to C$3,986.85, and its 95% range is C$2,129.61 to C$4,913.67. The wide ranges reflect substantial uncertainty. These are model estimates, not analyst targets or guarantees of future performance. Review the Wealth Awesome price forecast as a model output, not a recommendation.
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