First Capital REIT’s third-quarter net income rose sharply, but operating results offer a clearer picture for investors. Operating FFO per unit increased 9.2% from a year earlier, supported by same-property NOI growth and strong leasing.
First Capital Real Estate Investment Trust (FCR-UN.TO; TSX: FCR.UN) reported results after markets closed on November 2, 2026, for the quarter ended September 30. Reported EPS was C$0.5384. The company did not provide a comparable analyst estimate, so there’s no basis for calling it a beat or miss. For a retail REIT, operating FFO, property performance, occupancy and debt offer more insight than net income alone. Here’s what Canadian investors should know.
Recent earnings trend
First Capital Real Estate Investment Trust
FCR-UN.TO
FCR-UN.TO
First Capital Real Estate Investment Trust
WealthAwesomeMarket cap
$4.97B
P/E
4.6x
Div. yield
3.88%
Div. / share
$0.91
52W high
$23.44
52W low
$17.85
1W change
+0.56%
Beta
0.88
Analyst Price Targets
Based on analyst covering FCR-UN · as of Oct 23, 2026
Wall Street analysts forecast FCR-UN stock price to rise 4.6% over the next 12 months.
Consensus
NeutralBased on avg. target vs last close (formal rating unavailable for Canadian listings)
Avg. Target
C$24.36
+4.6% Upside
Previously C$24.41 on Oct 16, 2026
Current Price
C$23.29
Last close
Targets are snapshotted when they change. Unchanged figures keep their original date. Not financial advice.
Wealth Awesome Price Forecast
WA ModelStatistical 90-day price range based on FCR-UN's historical volatility
30-Day Vol
5.1%
Annualized
90-Day Vol
6.1%
Annualized
Trend (90d)
+10.1%
Annualized drift
90d Mean
C$24.14
Expected price
| Horizon | Expected | 68% Range (1σ) |
|---|---|---|
| 30 trading days | C$23.57 | C$23.16 – C$23.99 |
| 60 trading days | C$23.86 | C$23.27 – C$24.45 |
| 90 trading days | C$24.14 | C$23.42 – C$24.89 |
Methodology: Range is calculated using 30-day realized volatility via geometric Brownian motion (log-normal model). 68% band = ±1σ, 95% band = ±2σ. This is a statistical model, not a prediction. Past volatility does not guarantee future results. Not financial advice.
Analyst coverage: 1 analyst(s) cover this name; upcoming EPS consensus is available.
Beat estimates in 2 of the last 4 comparable quarter(s).
| Fiscal period | Report date | Actual EPS | Estimate | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 | 2026-11-02 | 0.5384 | — | — |
| 2026-06-30 | 2026-07-27 | 0.1122 | — | — |
| 2026-03-31 | 2026-05-05 | 0.4288 | — | — |
| 2025-12-31 | 2026-02-10 | 3.9987 | — | — |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-11-04 | 0.3100 | — | — |
| 2025-06-30 | 2025-07-29 | 0.2956 | — | — |
Investor takeaway: Operating FFO per diluted unit rose to C$0.36 from C$0.33. Same-property NOI grew 5.6%, excluding bad debt and lease termination items, and portfolio occupancy was 96.9%. Net income also climbed, largely because of a non-cash increase in property values. Investors should balance the operating gains against higher net debt and a net-debt-to-total-assets ratio of 44.2%. The monthly distribution remains C$0.076 per unit, or C$0.912 a year.
C$0.36 operating FFO per diluted unit, up 9.2%
Operating FFO reached C$78.5 million, up C$6.9 million from the same quarter last year. First Capital said the increase mainly came from C$6.6 million in higher NOI, partly offset by higher corporate costs and interest expense. This measure gives a better sense of recurring property performance than reported net income of C$0.54 per diluted unit, which benefited from changes in property values.
Bull case
Operating FFO growth, positive same-property NOI and a 13.2% first-year rent increase on renewals point to healthy leasing and rental income. Occupancy was 96.9% across the portfolio, while same-property occupancy rose to 97.4%. First Capital’s focus on grocery-anchored, open-air shopping centres gives investors exposure to retail properties that serve everyday needs.
Bear case
Portfolio occupancy slipped to 96.9% from 97.1% a year earlier. Net debt also rose to C$4.12 billion from C$4.09 billion at the end of 2025, and net debt was 8.9 times adjusted EBITDA. The sharp rise in net income was largely influenced by a C$47.9-million year-over-year change in investment-property fair value, which doesn’t reflect recurring cash operating growth. Higher interest expense also ate into the benefit of stronger NOI.
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