Firm Capital Mortgage Invest Corp reported quarterly EPS of C$0.23, below the C$0.25 estimate. It has missed by the same amount in each of the past three comparable quarters.
Firm Capital Mortgage Invest Corp (TSX: FC) reported results after market close on November 5 for the quarter ended September 30, 2026. Its EPS of C$0.23 was 8.0% below the C$0.25 estimate. The Q3 release also reported net income of C$8.61 million, down 5.2% from a year earlier, and a gross investment portfolio of C$598.7 million, 2.0% smaller than at the end of 2025. For Canadian investors, the key question is whether earnings and the portfolio can stabilize while FC maintains its monthly distribution.
Recent earnings trend
Firm Capital Mortgage Invest Corp
FC.TO
FC.TO
Firm Capital Mortgage Invest Corp
WealthAwesomeMarket cap
$386.87M
P/E
11.1x
Div. yield
8.79%
Div. / share
$0.94
52W high
$11.91
52W low
$10.28
1W change
+2.43%
Beta
0.80
Analyst Price Targets
Based on analyst covering FC · as of Oct 30, 2026
Wall Street analysts forecast FC stock price to rise 11.6% over the next 12 months.
Consensus
Moderately BullishBased on avg. target vs last close (formal rating unavailable for Canadian listings)
Avg. Target
C$11.75
+11.6% Upside
Previously C$12.08 on Oct 27, 2026
Current Price
C$10.53
Last close
Targets are snapshotted when they change. Unchanged figures keep their original date. Not financial advice.
Wealth Awesome Price Forecast
WA ModelStatistical 90-day price range based on FC's historical volatility
30-Day Vol
18.0%
Annualized
90-Day Vol
13.7%
Annualized
Trend (90d)
-50.0%
Annualized drift
90d Mean
C$8.81
Expected price
| Horizon | Expected | 68% Range (1σ) |
|---|---|---|
| 30 trading days | C$9.92 | C$9.33 – C$10.56 |
| 60 trading days | C$9.35 | C$8.56 – C$10.20 |
| 90 trading days | C$8.81 | C$7.91 – C$9.81 |
Methodology: Range is calculated using 30-day realized volatility via geometric Brownian motion (log-normal model). 68% band = ±1σ, 95% band = ±2σ. This is a statistical model, not a prediction. Past volatility does not guarantee future results. Not financial advice.
Analyst coverage: 3 analyst(s) cover this name; upcoming EPS consensus is available.
| Fiscal period | Report date | Actual EPS | Estimate | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-12-31 | 2027-03-18 | — | 0.2500 | — |
| 2026-09-30 | 2026-11-05 | 0.2300 | 0.2500 | -8.0% |
| 2026-06-30 | 2026-08-13 | 0.2300 | 0.2500 | -8.0% |
| 2026-03-31 | 2026-05-05 | 0.2300 | 0.2500 | -8.0% |
| 2025-12-31 | 2026-03-31 | 0.2370 | 0.2400 | -1.3% |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-11-04 | 0.2500 | 0.2400 | +4.2% |
Investor takeaway: FC has missed estimates in four consecutive reported quarters in the supplied history. EPS was C$0.23 against C$0.25 estimates in the latest three quarters, after C$0.237 against C$0.24. Investors should watch portfolio size, lending yields and income—not just the headline dividend yield. The supplied snapshot lists an 8.79% yield, but that figure alone doesn’t show whether the distribution is sustainable.
C$0.23 EPS versus C$0.25 expected
The 8.0% miss matches the shortfall in the previous two quarters. The next results will show whether this gap is holding steady or whether earnings estimates and portfolio income remain under pressure.
Bull case
FC’s EPS has held at C$0.23 for three consecutive quarters, and the supplied fundamentals show a trailing P/E of about 11.1. The average analyst target is C$11.75, 11.6% above the supplied last close of C$10.53. These figures may appeal to investors looking for income and a possible recovery, but neither the target nor the valuation guarantees a return.
Bear case
FC missed the latest earnings estimate, net income fell year over year, and its gross investment portfolio was smaller than at year-end 2025. The supplied technical snapshot also shows the last close below both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages. The high stated yield may be less reassuring if the portfolio keeps shrinking or lending yields weaken.
Analysis
For the quarter ended September 30, calendar data shows EPS of C$0.23 against an estimate of C$0.25, an 8.0% miss. The supplied earnings history shows the same actual and estimate for the June and March quarters. In December 2025, EPS was C$0.237 against an estimate of C$0.24. FC has missed estimates in all four comparable reported quarters in the supplied data. The automatically inserted earnings trend table and chart show the quarter-by-quarter results.
The Q3 release, as summarized in the supplied headline, reported net income of C$8.61 million, down 5.2% year over year. The gross investment portfolio was C$598.7 million, down 2.0% from year-end 2025. That means the portfolio was smaller as quarterly earnings fell, though the supplied information doesn’t include Q3 revenue or margin details. According to the supplied coverage note, FC filed its interim statements and MD&A on November 5.
The previous-quarter headline attributed Q2’s year-over-year net income decline in part to a smaller average portfolio and lower yields. That offers context, but the supplied Q3 information doesn’t confirm whether the same factors explain the latest results. Investors can review the FC stock page and the company’s filings for more detail.
Analysis
The supplied fundamentals snapshot lists a trailing P/E of about 11.1, trailing EPS of C$0.95 and a dividend yield of 8.79%. The yield may interest income-focused Canadian investors, but it should be weighed against earnings and portfolio trends. It doesn’t show whether the distribution is safe. The supplied Q2 headline says FC declared monthly dividends of C$0.078 per share for October and November. It doesn’t include a new Q3 dividend declaration.
Watch portfolio size, yields and EPS in the next results. Together, these measures can help investors assess whether FC’s income is holding up as its portfolio changes. For more company information, see FC’s stock profile.
Analysis
The supplied analyst data gives FC an average target of C$11.75, compared with a last close of C$10.53. That implies 11.6% upside to the average target. The consensus label is “Moderately Bullish,” based on the average target versus the last close. A formal rating isn’t available for this Canadian listing. Analyst targets are estimates, not guarantees. See the analyst price targets.
Wealth Awesome’s statistical 90-day price model, which isn’t financial advice, gives a mean forecast of C$8.81 from a C$10.53 reference price dated November 9, 2026. Its 68% range is C$7.91–C$9.81, and its 95% range is C$7.11–C$10.92. This model is separate from analyst targets and isn’t a recommendation. Review the Wealth Awesome price forecast alongside FC’s filings and your own assessment of risk.
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