GFL Environmental's recent earnings report reveals significant challenges, as the company misses EPS estimates by nearly 30%.
GFL Environmental Holdings Inc (GFL.TO) reported its second-quarter earnings on July 29, 2026, and the results were disappointing for investors. The company delivered an earnings per share (EPS) of $0.19, falling short of the consensus estimate of $0.27 by 29.6%. This marks a notable miss in a landscape where GFL had previously shown some resilience in revenue growth despite macroeconomic pressures.
Recent earnings trend
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Gfl Environmental Holdings Inc
GFL.TO
GFL.TO
Gfl Environmental Holdings Inc
WealthAwesomeMarket cap
$20.49B
P/E
111.0x
Div. yield
0.15%
Div. / share
$0.08
52W high
$71.02
52W low
$46.10
1W change
+6.10%
Beta
0.49
Analyst Price Targets
Based on analyst covering GFL
Wall Street analysts forecast GFL stock price to rise 21.4% over the next 12 months.
Consensus
BullishBased on avg. target vs last close (formal rating unavailable for Canadian listings)
Avg. Target
C$70.55
+21.4% Upside
Current Price
C$58.13
Last close
Analyst ratings and price targets are updated periodically. Not financial advice.
Wealth Awesome Price Forecast
WA ModelStatistical 90-day price range based on GFL's historical volatility
30-Day Vol
33.4%
Annualized
90-Day Vol
35.4%
Annualized
Trend (90d)
+50.0%
Annualized drift
90d Mean
C$69.49
Expected price
| Horizon | Expected | 68% Range (1σ) |
|---|---|---|
| 30 trading days | C$61.70 | C$54.99 – C$69.22 |
| 60 trading days | C$65.48 | C$55.65 – C$77.05 |
| 90 trading days | C$69.49 | C$56.94 – C$84.82 |
Methodology: Range is calculated using 30-day realized volatility via geometric Brownian motion (log-normal model). 68% band = ±1σ, 95% band = ±2σ. This is a statistical model, not a prediction. Past volatility does not guarantee future results. Not financial advice.
Analyst coverage: 15 analyst(s) cover this name; upcoming EPS consensus is available.
Beat estimates in 1 of the last 4 comparable quarter(s).
| Fiscal period | Report date | Actual EPS | Estimate | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-30 | 2026-07-29 | 0.1900 | 0.2700 | -29.6% |
| 2026-03-31 | 2026-04-29 | 0.0800 | 0.1200 | -33.3% |
| 2025-12-31 | 2026-02-11 | 0.3600 | 0.1900 | +89.5% |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-11-05 | 0.2300 | 0.2600 | -11.5% |
| 2025-06-30 | 2025-07-30 | 0.2600 | 0.2200 | +18.2% |
| 2025-03-31 | 2025-04-30 | -0.0900 | 0.0400 | -325.0% |
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Investor takeaway: Investors should consider GFL's recent earnings miss as a pivotal moment, weighing the implications of management's raised guidance against the backdrop of a declining EPS. Future performance will likely hinge on the company's ability to execute on its strategic goals amid a challenging operational environment.
EPS Misses by 29.6%, Revenue Surpasses Estimates
While GFL Environmental's revenue of $1.94 billion exceeded estimates by 2.28%, the EPS miss highlights potential operational challenges that investors need to monitor closely.
Bull case
GFL's revenue grew by 16.3% year-over-year, showing strong demand for its services. The company has also raised its full-year guidance, indicating confidence in its operational strategy. Continued investment in acquisitions could strengthen its market position and drive future profitability.
Bear case
The significant EPS miss raises concerns about GFL's operational efficiency and ability to manage costs effectively. The net loss reported in the quarter, along with a declining profit margin, could signal deeper issues that may affect investor sentiment moving forward. Additionally, the company's high P/E ratio suggests that expectations are high, which may not be sustainable.
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