Gfl Environmental's recent earnings report shows some serious challenges, as it missed expectations by nearly 30%.
Gfl Environmental Holdings Inc (GFL.TO) reported its second-quarter earnings on July 29, 2026. The earnings per share (EPS) came in at $0.19, which is well below the consensus estimate of $0.27. This miss, at -29.63%, has raised concerns among investors regarding the company's operational challenges and the current market conditions.
Recent earnings trend
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Gfl Environmental Holdings Inc
GFL.TO
GFL.TO
Gfl Environmental Holdings Inc
WealthAwesomeMarket cap
$20.89B
Div. yield
0.14%
Div. / share
$0.08
52W high
$71.02
52W low
$46.10
1W change
+3.36%
Beta
0.49
Analyst Price Targets
Based on analyst covering GFL
Wall Street analysts forecast GFL stock price to rise 21.9% over the next 12 months.
Consensus
BullishBased on avg. target vs last close (formal rating unavailable for Canadian listings)
Avg. Target
C$70.55
+21.9% Upside
Current Price
C$57.89
Last close
Analyst ratings and price targets are updated periodically. Not financial advice.
Wealth Awesome Price Forecast
WA ModelStatistical 90-day price range based on GFL's historical volatility
30-Day Vol
33.5%
Annualized
90-Day Vol
35.3%
Annualized
Trend (90d)
+50.0%
Annualized drift
90d Mean
C$69.21
Expected price
| Horizon | Expected | 68% Range (1σ) |
|---|---|---|
| 30 trading days | C$61.44 | C$54.74 – C$68.96 |
| 60 trading days | C$65.21 | C$55.39 – C$76.77 |
| 90 trading days | C$69.21 | C$56.67 – C$84.53 |
Methodology: Range is calculated using 30-day realized volatility via geometric Brownian motion (log-normal model). 68% band = ±1σ, 95% band = ±2σ. This is a statistical model, not a prediction. Past volatility does not guarantee future results. Not financial advice.
Analyst coverage: 15 analyst(s) cover this name; upcoming EPS consensus is available.
Beat estimates in 1 of the last 4 comparable quarter(s).
| Fiscal period | Report date | Actual EPS | Estimate | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-30 | 2026-07-29 | 0.1900 | 0.2700 | -29.6% |
| 2026-03-31 | 2026-04-29 | 0.0800 | 0.1200 | -33.3% |
| 2025-12-31 | 2026-02-11 | 0.3600 | 0.1900 | +89.5% |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-11-05 | 0.2300 | 0.2600 | -11.5% |
| 2025-06-30 | 2025-07-30 | 0.2600 | 0.2200 | +18.2% |
| 2025-03-31 | 2025-04-30 | -0.0900 | 0.0400 | -325.0% |
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Investor takeaway: Although GFL Environmental's revenue exceeded estimates, the significant EPS miss suggests there are underlying issues that could affect future performance. Investors should consider the company's growth strategies in light of its current operational hurdles.
EPS Misses Estimates by 29.6% Amidst Rising Costs
GFL's adjusted net income from continuing operations shows a net loss of $162.6 million, a stark contrast to last year's income. This highlights the impact of rising operational costs and market volatility.
Bull case
GFL's revenue growth of 16.3% and a solid pricing strategy indicate potential for recovery. The company has raised its full-year guidance, showing confidence in its operational strategies and the successful integration of recent acquisitions.
Bear case
The significant EPS miss, along with rising operational costs and external economic pressures, raises concerns about GFL's profitability and the sustainability of its margins moving forward.
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