GFL Environmental's latest earnings report has left investors concerned, as the company significantly missed estimates, raising questions about its future performance.
GFL Environmental Holdings Inc (GFL.TO) reported its Q2 2026 earnings on July 29, 2026, revealing a notable miss on EPS estimates. The company posted an EPS of $0.19, falling short of the consensus estimate of $0.27 by 29.6%. This continues a trend of mixed performance amid rising operational costs and external market pressures.
Recent earnings trend
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Gfl Environmental Holdings Inc
GFL.TO
GFL.TO
Gfl Environmental Holdings Inc
WealthAwesomeMarket cap
$20.33B
Div. yield
0.15%
Div. / share
$0.08
52W high
$68.82
52W low
$46.10
1W change
+0.10%
Beta
0.49
Analyst Price Targets
Based on analyst covering GFL
Wall Street analysts forecast GFL stock price to rise 24.1% over the next 12 months.
Consensus
BullishBased on avg. target vs last close (formal rating unavailable for Canadian listings)
Avg. Target
C$71.18
+24.1% Upside
Current Price
C$57.35
Last close
Analyst ratings and price targets are updated periodically. Not financial advice.
Wealth Awesome Price Forecast
WA ModelStatistical 90-day price range based on GFL's historical volatility
30-Day Vol
24.6%
Annualized
90-Day Vol
29.1%
Annualized
Trend (90d)
+50.0%
Annualized drift
90d Mean
C$68.56
Expected price
| Horizon | Expected | 68% Range (1σ) |
|---|---|---|
| 30 trading days | C$60.87 | C$55.92 – C$66.25 |
| 60 trading days | C$64.60 | C$57.30 – C$72.83 |
| 90 trading days | C$68.56 | C$59.20 – C$79.41 |
Methodology: Range is calculated using 30-day realized volatility via geometric Brownian motion (log-normal model). 68% band = ±1σ, 95% band = ±2σ. This is a statistical model, not a prediction. Past volatility does not guarantee future results. Not financial advice.
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Analyst coverage: 15 analyst(s) cover this name; upcoming EPS consensus is available.
Beat estimates in 1 of the last 4 comparable quarter(s).
| Fiscal period | Report date | Actual EPS | Estimate | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 | 2026-11-04 | — | 0.2700 | — |
| 2026-06-30 | 2026-07-29 | 0.1900 | 0.2700 | -29.6% |
| 2026-03-31 | 2026-04-29 | 0.0800 | 0.1200 | -33.3% |
| 2025-12-31 | 2026-02-11 | 0.3600 | 0.1900 | +89.5% |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-11-05 | 0.2300 | 0.2600 | -11.5% |
| 2025-06-30 | 2025-07-30 | 0.2600 | 0.2200 | +18.2% |
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Investor takeaway: The substantial earnings miss may raise red flags for investors, especially with rising costs and a challenging market environment. However, GFL's strong revenue growth and revised full-year guidance may still offer a silver lining.
Bull case
GFL has raised its full-year guidance for the second time in 2026, expecting significant growth in adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow. The company’s effective pricing strategies and operational efficiencies could boost future profitability.
Bear case
The earnings miss highlights ongoing challenges, including high diesel costs and declining construction and demolition volumes, which could affect margins and overall performance in the future.
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