GFL Environmental's latest earnings report shows a significant miss on EPS estimates, raising concerns about its growth amid rising costs and market pressures.
On July 29, 2026, GFL Environmental Holdings Inc (GFL.TO) reported its second-quarter earnings, revealing an EPS of $0.19, which fell short of analysts' expectations by 29.6%. This disappointing result comes despite a notable increase in revenue, highlighting the challenges the company faces in a fluctuating economic landscape.
Recent earnings trend
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Gfl Environmental Holdings Inc
GFL.TO
GFL.TO
Gfl Environmental Holdings Inc
WealthAwesomeMarket cap
$20.89B
Div. yield
0.14%
Div. / share
$0.08
52W high
$71.02
52W low
$46.10
1W change
+7.18%
Beta
0.49
Analyst Price Targets
Based on analyst covering GFL
Wall Street analysts forecast GFL stock price to rise 20.2% over the next 12 months.
Consensus
BullishBased on avg. target vs last close (formal rating unavailable for Canadian listings)
Avg. Target
C$71.18
+20.2% Upside
Current Price
C$59.23
Last close
Analyst ratings and price targets are updated periodically. Not financial advice.
Wealth Awesome Price Forecast
WA ModelStatistical 90-day price range based on GFL's historical volatility
30-Day Vol
33.5%
Annualized
90-Day Vol
35.5%
Annualized
Trend (90d)
+50.0%
Annualized drift
90d Mean
C$70.81
Expected price
| Horizon | Expected | 68% Range (1σ) |
|---|---|---|
| 30 trading days | C$62.86 | C$56.01 – C$70.56 |
| 60 trading days | C$66.72 | C$56.67 – C$78.55 |
| 90 trading days | C$70.81 | C$57.97 – C$86.49 |
Methodology: Range is calculated using 30-day realized volatility via geometric Brownian motion (log-normal model). 68% band = ±1σ, 95% band = ±2σ. This is a statistical model, not a prediction. Past volatility does not guarantee future results. Not financial advice.
Analyst coverage: 15 analyst(s) cover this name; upcoming EPS consensus is available.
Beat estimates in 1 of the last 4 comparable quarter(s).
| Fiscal period | Report date | Actual EPS | Estimate | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 | 2026-11-04 | — | 0.2700 | — |
| 2026-06-30 | 2026-07-29 | 0.1900 | 0.2700 | -29.6% |
| 2026-03-31 | 2026-04-29 | 0.0800 | 0.1200 | -33.3% |
| 2025-12-31 | 2026-02-11 | 0.3600 | 0.1900 | +89.5% |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-11-05 | 0.2300 | 0.2600 | -11.5% |
| 2025-06-30 | 2025-07-30 | 0.2600 | 0.2200 | +18.2% |
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Investor takeaway: Investors should think about what GFL's earnings miss means, especially considering rising costs and the company’s acquisition strategies. While revenue growth is positive, the net losses and external pressures may affect future performance.
EPS Missed by 29.6% Amid Revenue Growth
GFL's reported EPS of $0.19 compared to the expected $0.27 highlights a significant earnings surprise, which could indicate deeper issues with cost management and market conditions.
Bull case
GFL's revenue grew by 16.3%, and its strong pricing discipline shows a solid core business. The company has raised its full-year guidance for the second time this year, reflecting confidence in its operational strategies and the expected benefits from upcoming acquisitions.
Bear case
The big earnings miss, combined with high diesel prices and economic uncertainty affecting construction volumes, raises worries about GFL's profitability. Additionally, ongoing unsolicited take-private offers could create instability and distract management from focusing on operations.
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