Gfl Environmental Holdings Inc GFL Earnings Miss Estimates by 7.1%

GFL’s quarterly earnings fell short of estimates, but revenue, cash flow and the company’s third increase to its 2026 guidance paint a more mixed picture.

GFL Environmental Inc. (TSX: GFL) reported third-quarter 2026 results after markets closed on October 28. Its earnings of C$0.26 per share missed the C$0.28 estimate by 7.1%. Revenue reached $2.155 billion, up 27.2% from a year earlier, and the company raised its 2026 guidance for the third time. For Canadian investors, the key question is how to weigh the earnings miss against stronger operating results and cash flow.

Recent earnings trend

Analyst coverage: 15 analyst(s) cover this name; upcoming EPS consensus is available.

Beat estimates in 1 of the last 4 comparable quarter(s).

Investor takeaway: GFL has missed earnings estimates in three consecutive quarters, according to the supplied history. But the latest quarter also brought higher revenue, adjusted EBITDA and adjusted free cash flow, along with an improved 2026 outlook. Investors should consider that momentum alongside the continuing net loss, acquisition-driven growth and uncertainty around unsolicited take-private proposals. Visit the GFL stock page for more company information.

C$0.26 EPS versus C$0.28 estimate

The 7.1% earnings miss came alongside 27.2% year-over-year revenue growth and a 26.8% increase in adjusted EBITDA. GFL also raised its full-year outlook for the third time in 2026. The supplied calendar data show earnings misses in three of the past four quarters. That pattern matters, even as stronger operating results and higher guidance add context.

Analysis

For the quarter ended September 30, GFL reported calendar earnings of $0.26 per share, 7.1% below the $0.28 estimate. Revenue was $2,155.3 million, up 27.2% from the same quarter last year. Adjusted EBITDA rose 26.8% to $678.7 million, and adjusted free cash flow increased to $272.5 million from $180.5 million.

GFL recorded a $28 million net loss from continuing operations, compared with net income of $90.4 million a year earlier. Adjusted EBITDA margin was 31.5%, down from 31.6%. Excluding the effects of acquisitions and diesel prices, underlying margin expanded by 115 basis points. The supplied earnings trend table summarizes recent quarterly comparisons with estimates.

Analysis

GFL raised its 2026 revenue guidance to approximately $8.055 billion–$8.075 billion, from $7.510 billion–$7.530 billion. Adjusted EBITDA guidance increased to $2.49 billion–$2.50 billion from $2.29 billion. The adjusted free cash flow outlook rose to about $1.02 billion from $900 million.

Management pointed to year-to-date results and the expected contribution from its SECURE Waste Infrastructure acquisition. Revenue for the first nine months was $5.747 billion, up 16.6%. Adjusted free cash flow reached $484.9 million, compared with $331.3 million in the same period last year. Investors will want to see how much of the higher outlook comes from underlying growth and how much comes from acquisitions.

Analysis

The supplied analyst data show an average price target of C$72.50, compared with the last close of C$60.91. That implies 19.0% upside to the average target. The consensus label is bullish based on the target comparison, but a formal rating is not available for this Canadian listing. See the analyst targets section for details.

Wealth Awesome’s statistical 90-day price model gives a mean forecast of C$65.74. Its 68% range is C$54.72–C$78.97, and its 95% range is C$45.55–C$94.87. This is a statistical model, not financial advice. See the price forecast section.