Gran Tierra Energy reported a third-quarter loss of US$1.20 per share, well below analysts’ expected loss of US$0.15. The result adds to an uneven earnings record as GTE.TO moves through a major asset sale.
Gran Tierra Energy Inc. (TSX: GTE) released results after the market closed on November 5 for the quarter ended September 30, 2026. Calendar EPS was -US$1.20, missing the -US$0.15 estimate by 700%. The company beat estimates in one of its last four comparable quarters, based on the supplied earnings history. Visit the GTE.TO stock page for more coverage and data.
Recent earnings trend
Gran Tierra Energy Inc
GTE.TO
GTE.TO
Gran Tierra Energy Inc
WealthAwesomeMarket cap
$479.78M
52W high
$16.71
52W low
$5.12
1W change
-5.96%
Beta
0.21
Analyst Price Targets
Based on analyst covering GTE · as of Nov 10, 2026
Wall Street analysts forecast GTE stock price to rise 30.2% over the next 12 months.
Consensus
BullishBased on avg. target vs last close (formal rating unavailable for Canadian listings)
Avg. Target
C$17.65
+30.2% Upside
Previously C$17.70 on Nov 9, 2026
Current Price
C$13.56
Last close
Targets are snapshotted when they change. Unchanged figures keep their original date. Not financial advice.
Wealth Awesome Price Forecast
WA ModelStatistical 90-day price range based on GTE's historical volatility
30-Day Vol
43.5%
Annualized
90-Day Vol
75.8%
Annualized
Trend (90d)
+9.7%
Annualized drift
90d Mean
C$14.04
Expected price
| Horizon | Expected | 68% Range (1σ) |
|---|---|---|
| 30 trading days | C$13.72 | C$11.81 – C$15.94 |
| 60 trading days | C$13.88 | C$11.22 – C$17.16 |
| 90 trading days | C$14.04 | C$10.82 – C$18.21 |
Methodology: Range is calculated using 30-day realized volatility via geometric Brownian motion (log-normal model). 68% band = ±1σ, 95% band = ±2σ. This is a statistical model, not a prediction. Past volatility does not guarantee future results. Not financial advice.
Analyst coverage: 2 analyst(s) cover this name; upcoming EPS consensus is available.
Beat estimates in 1 of the last 4 comparable quarter(s).
| Fiscal period | Report date | Actual EPS | Estimate | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-12-31 | 2027-03-03 | — | 0.3000 | — |
| 2026-09-30 | 2026-11-05 | -1.2000 | -0.1500 | -700.0% |
| 2026-06-30 | 2026-08-05 | 0.7000 | 0.3400 | +105.9% |
| 2026-03-31 | 2026-05-08 | -3.3800 | -1.3200 | -156.1% |
| 2025-12-31 | 2026-03-03 | -4.0000 | -0.1600 | -2400.0% |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-10-30 | -0.7786 | 0.3000 | -359.5% |
Investor takeaway: The earnings miss was large, but the supplied results don’t include revenue, margins, or an explanation for the loss. They don’t show what caused it. Gran Tierra is also in the middle of a major transition. Shareholders approved the sale of its Colombia and Ecuador operations for about US$1.33 billion, including assumed debt and subject to adjustment. The company said it expected about US$315 million in net cash proceeds.
The Q3 release reported working-interest production of 39,904 boepd, including 12,852 boepd in Canada, and cash of US$141 million. These figures provide context on operations and liquidity, but don’t change the earnings result. The next-quarter consensus is US$0.16 per share, based on two analysts, down from US$0.51 30 days earlier. With so few estimates and such a sharp revision, the outlook is worth watching, but it isn’t a guarantee.
US$1.20 loss per share
Gran Tierra’s Q3 calendar EPS was -US$1.20, compared with an expected -US$0.15—a 700% miss. The next-quarter consensus is US$0.16, based on just two analysts, and has fallen over the past month.
Bull case
If the asset sale closes on the expected terms, it could change Gran Tierra’s balance sheet and portfolio. Q3 production and cash offer a snapshot of its continuing operations. The average analyst price target is C$17.65, compared with the last close of C$13.56, a difference of 30.2%. That target is an estimate, not a promise of returns.
Bear case
Q3 EPS of -US$1.20 was much worse than the -US$0.15 estimate. The supplied trailing figures also show EPS (TTM) of -10.61 and a profit margin of -42.10%. Earnings have been uneven: Gran Tierra beat estimates in only one of its last four comparable quarters. The next-quarter EPS consensus has dropped from US$0.51 to US$0.16 in 30 days, based on just two analysts. The company still faces uncertainty around execution and the transaction’s outcome.
Analysis
For the quarter ended September 30, Gran Tierra reported calendar EPS of -US$1.20, against an estimate of -US$0.15. That’s a 700% negative surprise. The supplied information doesn’t include quarterly revenue or margins, so EPS alone doesn’t explain what drove the loss.
Recent results have been mixed. Gran Tierra beat estimates in the June quarter, but missed in March, December, and September. The earnings trend table and chart show the quarter-by-quarter results. Visit the GTE.TO stock page for company data and related coverage.
Analysis
The Q3 release reported working-interest production of 39,904 boepd, including 12,852 boepd in Canada, and cash of US$141 million. These figures come as Gran Tierra prepares for a major change: shareholders approved the sale of its Colombia and Ecuador businesses to Maurel & Prom for about US$1.33 billion, including assumed debt and subject to adjustment. Gran Tierra said it expected about US$315 million in net cash proceeds. The final impact depends on whether the deal closes and on its terms.
The company also reported that Azerbaijan’s parliament ratified its exploration, development, and production-sharing agreement for the onshore Guba-Khazaryani area.
Analysis
The average analyst price target is C$17.65, compared with the supplied last close of C$13.56. That implies 30.2% upside to the average target. The consensus is labelled bullish based on this comparison, but a formal rating isn’t available for this Canadian listing. See the analyst ratings section for more detail.
The next-quarter EPS consensus is US$0.16, based on two analysts, down from US$0.51 30 days ago. Gran Tierra’s Wealth Awesome price forecast is based on a statistical model, not financial advice. It gives a 90-day mean of C$14.04, with a 68% range of C$10.82 to C$18.21 and a 95% range of C$8.35 to C$23.61. These wide ranges reflect uncertainty, not guaranteed outcomes.
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