Intact Financial reported third-quarter EPS of C$3.63, beating the C$3.01 estimate. But catastrophe losses and mixed results across regions temper the headline beat.
Intact Financial Corporation (TSX: IFC) reported its third-quarter 2026 results after markets closed on November 3. EPS came in 20.6% above estimates. The company also reported 5% top-line growth and a 16% operating return on equity, while catastrophe losses exceeded expectations. For Canadian investors, the results show the balance in Intact’s business: strong underwriting and investment income, alongside weather-related volatility and challenges in some markets.
Recent earnings trend
Intact Financial Corporation
IFC.TO
IFC.TO
Intact Financial Corporation
WealthAwesomeMarket cap
$49.55B
P/E
17.3x
Div. yield
2.04%
Div. / share
$5.74
52W high
$303.79
52W low
$236.92
1W change
+7.85%
Beta
0.31
Analyst Price Targets
Based on analyst covering IFC · as of Oct 26, 2026
Wall Street analysts forecast IFC stock price to rise 9.3% over the next 12 months.
Consensus
Moderately BullishBased on avg. target vs last close (formal rating unavailable for Canadian listings)
Avg. Target
C$308.62
+9.3% Upside
Previously C$310.54 on Oct 19, 2026
Current Price
C$282.27
Last close
Targets are snapshotted when they change. Unchanged figures keep their original date. Not financial advice.
Wealth Awesome Price Forecast
WA ModelStatistical 90-day price range based on IFC's historical volatility
30-Day Vol
26.4%
Annualized
90-Day Vol
24.0%
Annualized
Trend (90d)
+11.6%
Annualized drift
90d Mean
C$294.17
Expected price
| Horizon | Expected | 68% Range (1σ) |
|---|---|---|
| 30 trading days | C$286.18 | C$261.23 – C$313.51 |
| 60 trading days | C$290.15 | C$255.03 – C$330.09 |
| 90 trading days | C$294.17 | C$251.18 – C$344.51 |
Methodology: Range is calculated using 30-day realized volatility via geometric Brownian motion (log-normal model). 68% band = ±1σ, 95% band = ±2σ. This is a statistical model, not a prediction. Past volatility does not guarantee future results. Not financial advice.
Analyst coverage: 9 analyst(s) cover this name; upcoming EPS consensus is available.
Beat estimates in 4 of the last 4 comparable quarter(s).
| Fiscal period | Report date | Actual EPS | Estimate | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-12-31 | 2027-02-09 | — | 4.8300 | — |
| 2026-09-30 | 2026-11-03 | 3.6300 | 3.0100 | +20.6% |
| 2026-06-30 | 2026-07-28 | 4.3300 | 3.4700 | +24.8% |
| 2026-03-31 | 2026-05-05 | 4.6100 | 4.0800 | +13.0% |
| 2025-12-31 | 2026-02-10 | 5.8900 | 4.6900 | +25.6% |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-11-04 | 4.4600 | 4.2100 | +5.9% |
Investor takeaway: The EPS beat and 16% operating ROE point to resilient performance. Still, the 94% combined ratio included four points of catastrophe losses above expectations. Canadian personal property was hit particularly hard, with a 105% combined ratio. Investors should weigh strong auto, commercial and U.S. results against catastrophe exposure, UK&I execution and management’s expectation that the 2026 expense ratio will be near the high end of its 33%–34% range. See the IFC stock page for more company data.
C$3.63 EPS, 20.6% above estimate
Intact reported third-quarter EPS of C$3.63, compared with the C$3.01 estimate. It has now beaten estimates in each of the previous three comparable quarters, with surprises ranging from 12.99% to 25.59%. The earnings-call highlights also show a 94% overall combined ratio, including four points of catastrophe losses above expectations. The beat is strong, but claims costs and regional underwriting results still matter.
Bull case
Intact delivered 5% top-line growth and a 16% operating ROE, its tenth straight quarter above 15%. Premiums in Canadian personal auto rose 10%. The U.S. business posted an 85.2% combined ratio, its 13th consecutive quarter below 90%. Operating net investment income rose 5% to C$422 million, and management expects it to exceed C$1.7 billion this year. The latest result also marks four consecutive comparable-quarter earnings beats in the supplied history.
Bear case
Catastrophe losses reached C$660 million, adding four points to the combined ratio beyond expectations. Canadian personal property had a 105% combined ratio, including 33 points from catastrophe losses, while UK&I growth was flat. Management expects the full-year expense ratio to land near the high end of its 33%–34% range. Next-quarter EPS consensus is C$4.34, below the year-ago figure of C$4.46. The estimate has also slipped from C$4.39 over the past 30 days.
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