International Petroleum Corp reported third-quarter EPS of C$0.52, well above the C$0.18 estimate. Production was in line with guidance, and free cash flow turned positive.
International Petroleum Corp (TSX: IPCO) reported third-quarter 2026 results before markets opened on November 3. EPS came in at C$0.52, 188.9% above the C$0.18 estimate. Revenue, operating cash flow and free cash flow also increased from a year earlier. But the earnings figure needs context: net income included a US$45-million gain from selling a Canadian asset, and the Blackrod Phase 1 project is still ramping up.
Recent earnings trend
International Petroleum Corp
IPCO.TO
IPCO.TO
International Petroleum Corp
WealthAwesomeMarket cap
$4.29B
P/E
147.9x
52W high
$40.93
52W low
$23.26
1W change
-2.71%
Beta
0.96
Analyst Price Targets
Based on analyst covering IPCO · as of Nov 4, 2026
Wall Street analysts forecast IPCO stock price to rise 12.4% over the next 12 months.
Consensus
Moderately BullishBased on avg. target vs last close (formal rating unavailable for Canadian listings)
Avg. Target
C$43.23
+12.4% Upside
Previously C$43.31 on Nov 3, 2026
Current Price
C$38.45
Last close
Targets are snapshotted when they change. Unchanged figures keep their original date. Not financial advice.
Wealth Awesome Price Forecast
WA ModelStatistical 90-day price range based on IPCO's historical volatility
30-Day Vol
38.4%
Annualized
90-Day Vol
38.5%
Annualized
Trend (90d)
+50.0%
Annualized drift
90d Mean
C$45.97
Expected price
| Horizon | Expected | 68% Range (1σ) |
|---|---|---|
| 30 trading days | C$40.81 | C$35.75 – C$46.58 |
| 60 trading days | C$43.31 | C$35.92 – C$52.23 |
| 90 trading days | C$45.97 | C$36.55 – C$57.81 |
Methodology: Range is calculated using 30-day realized volatility via geometric Brownian motion (log-normal model). 68% band = ±1σ, 95% band = ±2σ. This is a statistical model, not a prediction. Past volatility does not guarantee future results. Not financial advice.
Analyst coverage: 3 analyst(s) cover this name; upcoming EPS consensus is available.
Beat estimates in 2 of the last 4 comparable quarter(s).
| Fiscal period | Report date | Actual EPS | Estimate | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 | 2026-11-03 | 0.5200 | 0.1800 | +188.9% |
| 2026-06-30 | 2026-08-03 | 0.0900 | 0.1800 | -50.0% |
| 2026-03-31 | 2026-05-05 | 0.1100 | 0.0800 | +37.5% |
| 2025-12-31 | 2026-02-10 | -0.0300 | 0.1000 | -130.0% |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-11-04 | 0.0300 | 0.1300 | -76.9% |
| 2025-06-30 | 2025-08-05 | 0.1200 | 0.0800 | +50.0% |
Investor takeaway: IPC generated more cash and made progress at Blackrod, but the EPS beat alone doesn’t show that its ongoing earnings have reached a higher level. Average production was about 44,000 boepd, in line with guidance, and the company maintained its full-year production outlook. Investors will want to watch Blackrod’s progress toward its 2027 target of 30,000 bopd, as well as oil prices, debt and cash flow. See the IPCO stock page for company details.
US$27 million in third-quarter free cash flow
IPC generated US$27 million in free cash flow in Q3 2026, compared with negative US$23 million in the same quarter of 2025. Operating cash flow rose to US$79 million from US$66 million. The company updated its 2026 guidance to US$275 million–US$350 million in operating cash flow and US$35 million–US$110 million in free cash flow. These estimates assume Brent prices of US$80–US$110 a barrel for the rest of the year.
Bull case
Blackrod Phase 1 began producing oil in May and continued to ramp up as planned in the third quarter. IPC says it remains on track to reach its 2027 target of 30,000 bopd. Operating cash flow was US$79 million and free cash flow was US$27 million. Net debt fell to US$473 million from US$509 million at the end of June. After completing most of the spending on Blackrod Phase 1, IPC also resumed share buybacks, purchasing and cancelling about 1.1 million shares during the quarter.
Bear case
The EPS beat includes a US$45-million gain from selling a Canadian asset, so it doesn’t give a clear picture of recurring operating earnings. IPC reported net income of US$60 million, but the supplied fundamentals snapshot shows a 3.07% profit margin and a P/E ratio of about 148. The business remains exposed to oil-price swings, and Blackrod’s expected production plateau is a 2027 target, not current output. Net debt was US$473 million at quarter-end.
Analysis
IPCO reported calendar EPS of C$0.52, compared with an estimate of C$0.18, beating expectations by 188.9%. That reversed the previous quarter’s result of C$0.09 against an estimate of C$0.18. It also topped the March quarter’s C$0.11 against an estimate of C$0.08. Net income was US$59.9 million, up from US$3.8 million a year earlier. However, the latest result included a US$45-million gain from selling a non-core Canadian asset for C$70 million during the quarter. Revenue rose to US$212.0 million from US$172.3 million, while gross profit increased to US$52.3 million from US$32.1 million. Brent averaged more than US$97 a barrel during the quarter, supporting cash generation. The recent-earnings trend table below shows the quarter-by-quarter results.
Analysis
Average net production was about 44,000 boepd, in line with guidance. Blackrod Phase 1, which began producing oil in May, ramped up as planned. IPC says it remains on track for a forecast plateau of 30,000 bopd in 2027. Operating costs were US$20.90 per boe, also in line with guidance. Operating cash flow rose to US$79 million from US$66 million a year earlier, while free cash flow was US$27 million, compared with negative US$23 million. Net debt fell by US$36 million from the end of June to US$473 million.
IPC maintained its full-year production guidance of 44,000–47,000 boepd and operating-cost guidance of US$18–US$20 per boe. It raised its 2026 operating cash flow outlook to US$275 million–US$350 million and forecast free cash flow of US$35 million–US$110 million, based on its stated Brent-price assumptions. Actual results will depend on oil prices and operating performance.
Analysis
The supplied analyst data shows an average price target of C$43.23, 12.4% above the last close of C$38.45. Based on the target compared with the closing price, the data describes the implied view as moderately bullish. A formal rating isn’t available for this Canadian listing. See the analyst ratings section for details.
Wealth Awesome’s statistical 90-day price model gives a mean forecast of C$45.97. Its 68% range is C$36.55–C$57.81, and its 95% range is C$29.06–C$72.70. This is a statistical model, not financial advice. Its wide ranges reflect the uncertainty around a volatile energy stock. See the IPCO price forecast and the full IPCO stock page for more context.
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