Shopify beat its earnings estimate for the quarter, but investors had a mixed reaction. Revenue grew 32%, while the market weighed spending and margin concerns against strong cash flow.
Shopify Inc. (TSX: SHOP) reported results for the third quarter of 2026, ended September 30. Calendar EPS was C$0.49, above the C$0.46 estimate by 6.5%. Revenue reached US$3.7 billion, up 32% from a year earlier, and gross merchandise volume (GMV) rose 29.5% to US$119 billion. Shares closed at C$142.57, down 8.02% for the day. It was Shopify’s fourth straight quarter beating EPS estimates, but the share price suggests investors are also watching growth quality, margins and investment costs.
Recent earnings trend
Shopify Inc
SHOP.TO
SHOP.TO
Shopify Inc
WealthAwesomeMarket cap
$280.03B
P/E
106.2x
52W high
$255.95
52W low
$129.01
1W change
-14.06%
Beta
2.66
Analyst Price Targets
Based on analyst covering SHOP · as of Nov 4, 2026
Wall Street analysts forecast SHOP stock price to rise 57.0% over the next 12 months.
Consensus
BullishBased on avg. target vs last close (formal rating unavailable for Canadian listings)
Avg. Target
C$223.87
+57.0% Upside
Previously C$223.79 on Nov 2, 2026
Current Price
C$142.57
Last close
Targets are snapshotted when they change. Unchanged figures keep their original date. Not financial advice.
Wealth Awesome Price Forecast
WA ModelStatistical 90-day price range based on SHOP's historical volatility
30-Day Vol
52.3%
Annualized
90-Day Vol
58.7%
Annualized
Trend (90d)
-22.8%
Annualized drift
90d Mean
C$184.52
Expected price
| Horizon | Expected | 68% Range (1σ) |
|---|---|---|
| 30 trading days | C$194.82 | C$162.68 – C$233.31 |
| 60 trading days | C$189.60 | C$146.93 – C$244.67 |
| 90 trading days | C$184.52 | C$135.03 – C$252.15 |
Methodology: Range is calculated using 30-day realized volatility via geometric Brownian motion (log-normal model). 68% band = ±1σ, 95% band = ±2σ. This is a statistical model, not a prediction. Past volatility does not guarantee future results. Not financial advice.
Analyst coverage: 31 analyst(s) cover this name; upcoming EPS consensus is available.
Beat estimates in 4 of the last 4 comparable quarter(s).
| Fiscal period | Report date | Actual EPS | Estimate | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 | 2026-11-03 | 0.4900 | 0.4600 | +6.5% |
| 2026-06-30 | 2026-08-05 | 0.4200 | 0.4000 | +5.0% |
| 2026-03-31 | 2026-05-05 | 0.3600 | 0.3300 | +9.1% |
| 2025-12-31 | 2026-02-11 | 0.5786 | 0.5100 | +13.5% |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-11-04 | 0.2011 | 0.3400 | -40.9% |
| 2025-06-30 | 2025-08-06 | 0.6921 | 0.2900 | +138.7% |
Investor takeaway: Shopify delivered broad growth and strong free cash flow, but margin expansion remains uncertain. Revenue rose 32%, free cash flow reached US$816 million, and the free cash flow margin was 22%. For the next quarter, management expects revenue growth in the low 30s and gross profit dollars to grow in the high 20s. It expects operating expenses to equal 29%–30% of revenue. Canadian investors should consider that outlook alongside SHOP.TO’s supplied P/E of about 106 and its 8.02% one-day drop. The results were strong, but the next test is whether growth and investment lead to lasting profitability.
C$0.49 EPS, 6.5% above estimate
Shopify’s calendar EPS of C$0.49 topped the C$0.46 estimate. It was the fourth consecutive comparable quarter above estimates, following beats of 5.0%, 9.1% and 13.5%. This quarter’s beat was smaller, while revenue growth and cash generation remained strong.
Bull case
Growth reached across Shopify’s business. GMV rose 29.5%, Merchant Solutions revenue grew 35%, Subscription Solutions revenue increased 20%, and B2B GMV climbed 74%. International and offline GMV also grew at a strong pace. Operating expenses fell to 32% of revenue from 37% a year earlier, and Shopify generated US$816 million in free cash flow. AI-related traffic and orders grew quickly from a smaller base, offering another potential channel for commerce growth.
Bear case
The EPS beat doesn’t resolve concerns about margins and spending. Gross profit grew 28%, slower than revenue growth of 32%. Subscription Solutions gross margin was 79%, below the company’s 80% target, with AI-related costs still a factor. For Q4, management expects gross profit dollars to grow in the high 20s, compared with revenue growth in the low 30s. It also expects the free cash flow margin to be in line with the same quarter last year. The share price remains below its 50-day moving average, and the supplied P/E of about 106 leaves little room for execution to slip.
Best next step
Keep exploring this topic
If you want to go deeper, these are the most useful follow-up pages and tools for this topic.
Broker comparison
Best trading platforms in Canada
Compare $0-commission brokers before you act on a ticker story.
Safe cash
Best GIC rates in Canada
If the story makes you want to de-risk, compare guaranteed rates next.
HISA roundup
Best high-interest savings accounts
Keep dry powder in a no-fee savings account instead of chequing.
TFSA room
Check TFSA contribution room
Shelter the next contribution before you buy.
Wealth Awesome
Timely coverage of Canadian stocks, earnings, dividends, and market movers for DIY investors. Stories are checked against exchange data and public filings.
View Full Profile →✅ Reviewed by Certified Financial Professionals
This content has been reviewed by CFA® charterholders and Certified Financial Planners (CFP®) with over a decade of experience in Canadian financial markets. All information is fact-checked against official Canadian sources and regulations.
Why these credentials matter: CFA® charterholders complete 900+ hours of rigorous study in investment analysis and ethics. CFP® professionals are held to the highest standards of financial planning competency and fiduciary duty in Canada.
⚠️ Professional Disclaimer
This content is for educational purposes only and should not be considered personalized financial advice. While our team brings professional expertise, individual circumstances vary. For personalized guidance, consult with a qualified financial advisor, tax professional, or mortgage specialist.
