Triple Flag’s adjusted Q3 earnings were US$0.26 per share, above the US$0.23 estimate. Revenue rose from a year earlier, and operating cash flow per share increased 15%.
Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. (TSX: TFPM) reported its third-quarter 2026 results after markets closed on November 3. Adjusted earnings came to US$0.26 per share, 13% above the US$0.23 estimate. Revenue rose to US$106.7 million from US$93.5 million a year earlier. Operating cash flow per share increased 15% to US$0.45. The company maintained its 2026 sales guidance. For Canadian investors, the results showed stronger cash generation, while the share price remained below its 50- and 200-day moving averages.
Recent earnings trend
Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp
TFPM.TO
TFPM.TO
Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp
WealthAwesomeMarket cap
$8.32B
P/E
14.7x
Div. yield
0.59%
Div. / share
$0.23
52W high
$57.06
52W low
$37.21
1W change
-4.97%
Beta
0.46
Analyst Price Targets
Based on analyst covering TFPM · as of Nov 4, 2026
Wall Street analysts forecast TFPM stock price to rise 46.9% over the next 12 months.
Consensus
BullishBased on avg. target vs last close (formal rating unavailable for Canadian listings)
Avg. Target
C$58.09
+46.9% Upside
Previously C$58.11 on Nov 2, 2026
Current Price
C$39.56
Last close
Targets are snapshotted when they change. Unchanged figures keep their original date. Not financial advice.
Wealth Awesome Price Forecast
WA ModelStatistical 90-day price range based on TFPM's historical volatility
30-Day Vol
34.4%
Annualized
90-Day Vol
38.9%
Annualized
Trend (90d)
-50.0%
Annualized drift
90d Mean
C$33.09
Expected price
| Horizon | Expected | 68% Range (1σ) |
|---|---|---|
| 30 trading days | C$37.27 | C$33.10 – C$41.98 |
| 60 trading days | C$35.12 | C$29.69 – C$41.55 |
| 90 trading days | C$33.09 | C$26.94 – C$40.65 |
Methodology: Range is calculated using 30-day realized volatility via geometric Brownian motion (log-normal model). 68% band = ±1σ, 95% band = ±2σ. This is a statistical model, not a prediction. Past volatility does not guarantee future results. Not financial advice.
Analyst coverage: 6 analyst(s) cover this name; upcoming EPS consensus is available.
Beat estimates in 4 of the last 4 comparable quarter(s).
| Fiscal period | Report date | Actual EPS | Estimate | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 | 2026-11-03 | 0.2600 | 0.2300 | +13.0% |
| 2026-06-30 | 2026-08-05 | 0.3900 | 0.3300 | +18.2% |
| 2026-03-31 | 2026-05-05 | 0.4500 | 0.4200 | +7.1% |
| 2025-12-31 | 2026-02-18 | 0.3300 | 0.3200 | +3.1% |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-11-04 | 0.2400 | 0.2200 | +9.1% |
| 2025-06-30 | 2025-08-06 | 0.2400 | 0.2200 | +9.1% |
Investor takeaway: Higher revenue and cash flow supported the earnings beat, though gold-equivalent ounces sold fell year over year. Triple Flag reaffirmed its 2026 guidance and declared a quarterly dividend of US$0.06. Analyst price targets and a separate statistical forecast point in different directions. Neither is a reliable guide to short-term performance or investment advice.
US$0.26 adjusted EPS
Adjusted earnings per share beat the US$0.23 estimate by 13%. Triple Flag reported net earnings of US$0.31 per share, including non-recurring gains. Adjusted net earnings were US$53.1 million, or US$0.26 per share, compared with US$49.3 million, or US$0.24 per share, in Q3 2025.
Bull case
Revenue rose to US$106.7 million from US$93.5 million, and operating cash flow increased to US$92.0 million from US$81.4 million. Operating cash flow per share climbed 15% to US$0.45. Adjusted EBITDA grew to US$93.7 million from US$77.2 million.
Triple Flag remains on track to sell 100,000–110,000 gold-equivalent ounces in 2026 and reaffirmed its 2030 outlook of 150,000–160,000 GEOs. The company has more than US$1.1 billion in available liquidity and repurchased US$20 million of shares during the quarter.
Bear case
Gold-equivalent ounces sold fell to 25,030 from 27,037 a year earlier. Gold GEOs declined to 16,519 from 19,664. The consensus estimate for next-quarter EPS fell over the past 30 days, from US$0.34 to US$0.31. Analysts made five downward revisions and one upward revision.
TFPM.TO’s last closing price of C$39.56 was below its 50- and 200-day moving averages. The supplied 90-day statistical model also forecasts an average price below the current share price. Results depend in part on the operating performance and development progress of partner mines.
Best next step
Keep exploring this topic
If you want to go deeper, these are the most useful follow-up pages and tools for this topic.
Broker comparison
Best trading platforms in Canada
Compare $0-commission brokers before you act on a ticker story.
Safe cash
Best GIC rates in Canada
If the story makes you want to de-risk, compare guaranteed rates next.
HISA roundup
Best high-interest savings accounts
Keep dry powder in a no-fee savings account instead of chequing.
TFSA room
Check TFSA contribution room
Shelter the next contribution before you buy.
Wealth Awesome
Timely coverage of Canadian stocks, earnings, dividends, and market movers for DIY investors. Stories are checked against exchange data and public filings.
View Full Profile →✅ Reviewed by Certified Financial Professionals
This content has been reviewed by CFA® charterholders and Certified Financial Planners (CFP®) with over a decade of experience in Canadian financial markets. All information is fact-checked against official Canadian sources and regulations.
Why these credentials matter: CFA® charterholders complete 900+ hours of rigorous study in investment analysis and ethics. CFP® professionals are held to the highest standards of financial planning competency and fiduciary duty in Canada.
⚠️ Professional Disclaimer
This content is for educational purposes only and should not be considered personalized financial advice. While our team brings professional expertise, individual circumstances vary. For personalized guidance, consult with a qualified financial advisor, tax professional, or mortgage specialist.
