Michael Mauboussin

“We must accept the role of luck to properly assess skill.”

“Outcomes are an unreliable guide to process.”

“The best decisions can lead to bad outcomes.”

“A sustainable competitive advantage allows a firm to earn excess returns for longer.”

“Value is created when returns on capital exceed the cost of capital.”

“Moats are dynamic, not static”

“Price is a statement of expectations”

“Superior returns come from better expectations, not better forecasts.”

“Markets are forward-looking — investors must be too”

“Ignoring base rates is one of the most common decision errors.”

“History doesn’t repeat, but it provides probabilities.”

“Narratives are persuasive — numbers are grounding.”

“Time arbitrage exists because most investors cannot wait.”

“Patience is a competitive advantage”

“Long-term value creation is nonlinear.”