Lundin Mining earned US$0.32 per share in the third quarter, beating the US$0.30 estimate. But lower copper output at Caserones and a cut to production guidance temper the result.
Lundin Mining Corporation (TSX: LUN) reported adjusted third-quarter 2026 earnings of US$0.32 per share on November 4, 6.7% above the US$0.30 consensus. Revenue rose to US$1.109 billion from US$1.01 billion a year earlier, but came in 1.08% below the estimate cited in company news. Record realized copper prices supported the quarter, while operational disruptions at Caserones led the company to lower its 2026 copper production outlook. Investors are weighing strong cash generation against that weaker outlook.
Recent earnings trend
Lundin Mining Corporation
LUN.TO
LUN.TO
Lundin Mining Corporation
WealthAwesomeMarket cap
$25.19B
P/E
13.6x
Div. yield
0.29%
Div. / share
$0.08
52W high
$45.63
52W low
$23.58
1W change
+6.01%
Beta
2.04
Analyst Price Targets
Based on analyst covering LUN · as of Nov 9, 2026
Wall Street analysts forecast LUN stock price to rise 34.9% over the next 12 months.
Consensus
BullishBased on avg. target vs last close (formal rating unavailable for Canadian listings)
Avg. Target
C$42.85
+34.9% Upside
Previously C$42.79 on Nov 6, 2026
Current Price
C$31.76
Last close
Targets are snapshotted when they change. Unchanged figures keep their original date. Not financial advice.
Wealth Awesome Price Forecast
WA ModelStatistical 90-day price range based on LUN's historical volatility
30-Day Vol
70.1%
Annualized
90-Day Vol
57.2%
Annualized
Trend (90d)
-41.4%
Annualized drift
90d Mean
C$27.39
Expected price
| Horizon | Expected | 68% Range (1σ) |
|---|---|---|
| 30 trading days | C$30.23 | C$23.74 – C$38.50 |
| 60 trading days | C$28.78 | C$20.44 – C$40.51 |
| 90 trading days | C$27.39 | C$18.02 – C$41.64 |
Methodology: Range is calculated using 30-day realized volatility via geometric Brownian motion (log-normal model). 68% band = ±1σ, 95% band = ±2σ. This is a statistical model, not a prediction. Past volatility does not guarantee future results. Not financial advice.
Analyst coverage: 9 analyst(s) cover this name; upcoming EPS consensus is available.
Beat estimates in 2 of the last 4 comparable quarter(s).
| Fiscal period | Report date | Actual EPS | Estimate | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-12-31 | 2027-02-18 | — | 0.3000 | — |
| 2026-09-30 | 2026-11-04 | 0.3200 | 0.3000 | +6.7% |
| 2026-06-30 | 2026-08-05 | 0.3000 | 0.3500 | -14.3% |
| 2026-03-31 | 2026-05-06 | 0.3100 | 0.3100 | +0.0% |
| 2025-12-31 | 2026-02-19 | 0.8900 | 0.3200 | +178.1% |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-11-06 | 0.1800 | 0.1400 | +28.6% |
Investor takeaway: The earnings beat came with operational challenges. Lundin generated US$418 million in free cash flow from operations and ended the quarter with US$237 million in net cash. But weather disruptions at Caserones led it to cut 2026 copper production guidance to 105,000–115,000 tonnes from 120,000–130,000 tonnes. For Canadian investors, the key question is whether Lundin can make up the deferred production as expected while moving its growth projects forward.
US$0.32 adjusted EPS, versus US$0.30 expected
The 6.7% earnings beat came with US$1.109 billion in revenue and US$418 million in free cash flow from operations. Lundin reported net earnings of US$228.9 million, or US$0.27 per share. Adjusted earnings were US$276.5 million, or US$0.32 per share. The consensus comparison is based on adjusted EPS, not reported earnings.
Bull case
Lundin posted its fourth straight quarter with revenue above US$1 billion. Record realized copper prices of US$6.85 per pound helped lift adjusted EBITDA to US$647.7 million. The company also said its year-to-date adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow from operations had already exceeded their full-year 2025 totals. Growth milestones at Vicuña and Chapada, a net-cash position, and ongoing share repurchases add to the case for LUN.TO.
Bear case
Heavy snowfall and strong winds caused two extended production stoppages at Caserones, prompting Lundin to cut its 2026 copper production guidance. Management says the affected tonnes have been deferred and expects operations to recover through 2027. That plan depends on weather and execution. Revenue also missed the cited consensus, and at the latest supplied close, the share price was below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages.
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