Manulife beat the quarterly EPS estimate, but reported net income was lower and its Global Wealth and Asset Management business continued to see outflows.
Manulife Financial Corp. (TSX: MFC) reported calendar EPS of C$1.24 for the quarter ended September 30, 2026, above the C$1.18 estimate. That’s a 5.1% beat. The company also posted a small beat in June, after missing estimates in March and December. Its Q3 call adds context: core EPS rose 6% year over year to a record, while net income was C$1.4 billion and Global Wealth and Asset Management saw net outflows. Here’s what Canadian investors should know. Visit the MFC stock page for more company and share information.
Recent earnings trend
Manulife Financial Corp
MFC.TO
MFC.TO
Manulife Financial Corp
WealthAwesomeMarket cap
$100.77B
P/E
17.3x
Div. yield
3.08%
Div. / share
$1.90
52W high
$64.60
52W low
$43.46
1W change
-0.30%
Beta
0.75
Analyst Price Targets
Based on analyst covering MFC · as of Oct 21, 2026
Wall Street analysts forecast MFC stock price to rise 4.8% over the next 12 months.
Consensus
NeutralBased on avg. target vs last close (formal rating unavailable for Canadian listings)
Avg. Target
C$65.47
+4.8% Upside
Previously C$65.53 on Oct 19, 2026
Current Price
C$62.49
Last close
Targets are snapshotted when they change. Unchanged figures keep their original date. Not financial advice.
Wealth Awesome Price Forecast
WA ModelStatistical 90-day price range based on MFC's historical volatility
30-Day Vol
23.4%
Annualized
90-Day Vol
19.5%
Annualized
Trend (90d)
+12.0%
Annualized drift
90d Mean
C$65.24
Expected price
| Horizon | Expected | 68% Range (1σ) |
|---|---|---|
| 30 trading days | C$63.39 | C$58.48 – C$68.71 |
| 60 trading days | C$64.31 | C$57.38 – C$72.07 |
| 90 trading days | C$65.24 | C$56.74 – C$75.01 |
Methodology: Range is calculated using 30-day realized volatility via geometric Brownian motion (log-normal model). 68% band = ±1σ, 95% band = ±2σ. This is a statistical model, not a prediction. Past volatility does not guarantee future results. Not financial advice.
Analyst coverage: 8 analyst(s) cover this name; upcoming EPS consensus is available.
Beat estimates in 2 of the last 4 comparable quarter(s).
| Fiscal period | Report date | Actual EPS | Estimate | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-12-31 | 2027-02-10 | — | 1.1800 | — |
| 2026-09-30 | 2026-11-04 | 1.2400 | 1.1800 | +5.1% |
| 2026-06-30 | 2026-08-05 | 1.0900 | 1.0800 | +0.9% |
| 2026-03-31 | 2026-05-13 | 1.0600 | 1.0900 | -2.8% |
| 2025-12-31 | 2026-02-11 | 0.8300 | 0.9500 | -12.6% |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-11-12 | 1.1600 | 1.0400 | +11.5% |
Investor takeaway: The EPS beat and record core EPS point to underlying earnings growth, especially in Asia and North American insurance. But core earnings tell only part of the story. Reported net income was affected by lower-than-expected returns on alternative long-duration assets and public equities, along with derivative and hedging losses. Global Wealth and Asset Management also faced outflows. Manulife’s strong capital position and shareholder returns are positives, but investors should keep an eye on the mix of earnings and fund flows.
C$1.24 EPS versus C$1.18 estimated
Manulife’s calendar EPS came in C$0.06 above the estimate, a 5.08% beat. Of the last four reported quarters, two were beats: the latest result and a 0.93% beat in June. The company missed estimates in March and December. Its Q3 call reported record core EPS, up 6% year over year, while investment-related losses and lower-than-expected returns weighed on reported net income.
Bull case
Core EPS rose 6% year over year to a record, with growth in Asia, Canada and the U.S. Core ROE was 17.8%, close to the company’s target of more than 18%. The contractual service margin balance grew 9%, and adjusted book value per share rose 9% to C$41.78. Manulife’s LICAT ratio was 136%, and it returned C$5.3 billion to shareholders over the past 12 months. The EPS beat adds to the case that its insurance businesses can support earnings growth and shareholder returns.
Bear case
Reported net income was C$1.4 billion, weighed down by investment-related headwinds. Global Wealth and Asset Management recorded C$3.6 billion in net outflows, and core earnings fell 5%. Claims experience in Canadian group insurance remained challenging, while U.S. life lapse experience was unfavourable. Asia APE sales were broadly flat: growth in Hong Kong and Japan was offset by lower sales in mainland China. These pressures are a reminder that the EPS beat doesn’t reflect performance across every business line.
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