MTY Food Group Inc. has delivered a solid earnings performance, surpassing expectations with a notable EPS surprise.
On October 9, 2026, MTY Food Group Inc. reported its third-quarter earnings for the fiscal year, showcasing an EPS of $1.26, which exceeded the analyst estimate of $1.19 by 5.88%. This marks the third earnings beat in the last four quarters, highlighting the company's resilience in a challenging market.
Recent earnings trend
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MTY Food Group Inc
MTY.TO
MTY.TO
MTY Food Group Inc
WealthAwesomeMarket cap
$711.51M
P/E
6.7x
52W high
$44.59
52W low
$28.12
1W change
+0.29%
Beta
1.01
Analyst Price Targets
Based on analyst covering MTY · as of Sep 17, 2026
Wall Street analysts forecast MTY stock price to rise 32.2% over the next 12 months.
Consensus
BullishBased on avg. target vs last close (formal rating unavailable for Canadian listings)
Avg. Target
C$41.17
+32.2% Upside
Current Price
C$31.15
Last close
Targets are snapshotted when they change. Unchanged figures keep their original date. Not financial advice.
Wealth Awesome Price Forecast
WA ModelStatistical 90-day price range based on MTY's historical volatility
30-Day Vol
20.6%
Annualized
90-Day Vol
30.7%
Annualized
Trend (90d)
-32.2%
Annualized drift
90d Mean
C$27.77
Expected price
| Horizon | Expected | 68% Range (1σ) |
|---|---|---|
| 30 trading days | C$29.98 | C$27.92 – C$32.19 |
| 60 trading days | C$28.85 | C$26.09 – C$31.91 |
| 90 trading days | C$27.77 | C$24.55 – C$31.41 |
Methodology: Range is calculated using 30-day realized volatility via geometric Brownian motion (log-normal model). 68% band = ±1σ, 95% band = ±2σ. This is a statistical model, not a prediction. Past volatility does not guarantee future results. Not financial advice.
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Analyst coverage: 3 analyst(s) cover this name; upcoming EPS consensus is available.
Beat estimates in 3 of the last 4 comparable quarter(s).
| Fiscal period | Report date | Actual EPS | Estimate | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-30 | 2027-02-19 | — | 0.9300 | — |
| 2026-08-31 | 2026-10-09 | 1.2600 | 1.1900 | +5.9% |
| 2026-05-31 | 2026-07-10 | 0.9700 | 1.1200 | -13.4% |
| 2026-02-28 | 2026-04-10 | 0.9800 | 0.8300 | +18.1% |
| 2025-11-30 | 2026-02-19 | 1.8800 | 0.8300 | +126.5% |
| 2025-08-31 | 2025-10-10 | 1.1900 | 1.2300 | -3.3% |
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Investor takeaway: Investors should note MTY's consistent earnings performance, especially considering its recent dividend increase and ongoing strategic review. While the company's profit margins remain stable, the overall revenue growth outlook suggests careful monitoring moving forward.
EPS Surprises: 5.88% Above Estimates
MTY Food Group's EPS of $1.26 not only surpassed estimates but also reflects a year-over-year growth of 4.2%, demonstrating the company's ability to maintain profitability amidst market fluctuations.
Bull case
MTY Food Group's strong earnings beat and a 35% increase in dividends show that the management is doing well and there’s potential for future growth. The company has a solid track record of exceeding EPS estimates, making it an appealing choice for income-focused investors.
Bear case
Despite the positive earnings surprise, MTY's revenue growth is projected to decline by 3.7%, raising concerns about its long-term growth. Investors should be cautious of the broader economic conditions affecting consumer spending, which could impact future performance.
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