North American Construction Group reported quarterly EPS of C$0.25, well below the C$0.52 estimate. But the company also reported 12% year-over-year growth in combined revenue and raised its full-year revenue guidance.
North American Construction Group Ltd. (TSX: NOA) released results after the market closed on November 4 for the quarter ended September 30, 2026. EPS missed the calendar estimate by 51.9%, marking the company’s fourth straight quarter below estimates. Revenue growth and higher guidance offer a more mixed view of its performance.
Recent earnings trend
North American Construction Group Ltd
NOA.TO
NOA.TO
North American Construction Group Ltd
WealthAwesomeMarket cap
$357.42M
P/E
11.9x
52W high
$23.05
52W low
$12.20
1W change
-9.66%
Beta
1.08
Analyst Price Targets
Based on analyst covering NOA · as of Oct 9, 2026
Wall Street analysts forecast NOA stock price to rise 88.3% over the next 12 months.
Consensus
BullishBased on avg. target vs last close (formal rating unavailable for Canadian listings)
Avg. Target
C$25.00
+88.3% Upside
Previously C$25.29 on Sep 17, 2026
Current Price
C$13.28
Last close
Targets are snapshotted when they change. Unchanged figures keep their original date. Not financial advice.
Wealth Awesome Price Forecast
WA ModelStatistical 90-day price range based on NOA's historical volatility
30-Day Vol
61.0%
Annualized
90-Day Vol
45.0%
Annualized
Trend (90d)
-50.0%
Annualized drift
90d Mean
C$11.11
Expected price
| Horizon | Expected | 68% Range (1σ) |
|---|---|---|
| 30 trading days | C$12.51 | C$10.14 – C$15.44 |
| 60 trading days | C$11.79 | C$8.76 – C$15.87 |
| 90 trading days | C$11.11 | C$7.72 – C$15.99 |
Methodology: Range is calculated using 30-day realized volatility via geometric Brownian motion (log-normal model). 68% band = ±1σ, 95% band = ±2σ. This is a statistical model, not a prediction. Past volatility does not guarantee future results. Not financial advice.
Analyst coverage: 4 analyst(s) cover this name; upcoming EPS consensus is available.
| Fiscal period | Report date | Actual EPS | Estimate | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 | 2026-11-04 | 0.2500 | 0.5200 | -51.9% |
| 2026-06-30 | 2026-08-12 | 0.3200 | 0.3700 | -13.5% |
| 2026-03-31 | 2026-05-13 | 0.3700 | 0.4300 | -14.0% |
| 2025-12-31 | 2026-03-11 | -0.1400 | 0.7200 | -119.4% |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-11-12 | 0.6700 | 0.6800 | -1.5% |
| 2025-06-30 | 2025-08-13 | 0.0200 | 0.7200 | -97.2% |
Investor takeaway: The earnings miss was significant, but it wasn’t the whole story. The company reported combined revenue of C$438.1 million, up 12% year over year, and adjusted EBITDA of C$100.1 million. It also raised its 2026 combined-revenue guidance. However, the roughly C$45 million increase in costs attributable to the Fargo joint venture project is a concern. Revenue growth doesn’t erase the pressure on costs and earnings, and the available figures don’t show how the higher guidance will affect future profits.
C$0.25 EPS versus C$0.52 estimated
The C$0.27-per-share shortfall was a 51.9% miss. It was the fourth consecutive reported quarter below estimates in the supplied earnings history. The automatically inserted earnings trend table and chart show the results quarter by quarter.
Bull case
Combined revenue growth and higher full-year guidance point to continued demand across the business. North American Construction Group also reported C$100.1 million in adjusted EBITDA. A five-year Canadian oil sands fuel-services contract announced in July was expected to add about C$135 million to its backlog. Analyst price targets in the supplied data are well above the last closing price, though targets don’t guarantee future performance.
Bear case
EPS missed estimates by 51.9%, following three consecutive misses. The roughly C$45 million increase in costs attributable to the Fargo joint venture project highlights execution risk. The stock’s last close of C$13.28 was also below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages. The supplied Wealth Awesome model projects a lower average price over the next 90 days, but that estimate is uncertain and isn’t investment advice.
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