North American Construction Group reported quarterly EPS of C$0.25, well below the C$0.52 estimate. It’s the fourth quarter in a row that earnings have missed analyst expectations.
North American Construction Group Ltd. (TSX: NOA) released results after the market closed on November 4 for the quarter ended September 30, 2026. EPS came in at C$0.25, 51.9% below the calendar estimate of C$0.52. The company has missed estimates in each of the past four comparable quarters. Other reports say revenue rose year over year, but higher expected costs on the Fargo project led to a lower adjusted EBITDA outlook. Check the company’s release for those details.
Recent earnings trend
North American Construction Group Ltd
NOA.TO
NOA.TO
North American Construction Group Ltd
WealthAwesomeMarket cap
$350.07M
P/E
11.7x
52W high
$23.05
52W low
$12.20
1W change
-22.00%
Beta
1.08
Analyst Price Targets
Based on analyst covering NOA · as of Nov 9, 2026
Wall Street analysts forecast NOA stock price to rise 62.2% over the next 12 months.
Consensus
BullishBased on avg. target vs last close (formal rating unavailable for Canadian listings)
Avg. Target
C$21.29
+62.2% Upside
Previously C$25.00 on Oct 9, 2026
Current Price
C$13.12
Last close
Targets are snapshotted when they change. Unchanged figures keep their original date. Not financial advice.
Wealth Awesome Price Forecast
WA ModelStatistical 90-day price range based on NOA's historical volatility
30-Day Vol
60.9%
Annualized
90-Day Vol
45.0%
Annualized
Trend (90d)
-50.0%
Annualized drift
90d Mean
C$10.97
Expected price
| Horizon | Expected | 68% Range (1σ) |
|---|---|---|
| 30 trading days | C$12.36 | C$10.02 – C$15.25 |
| 60 trading days | C$11.65 | C$8.65 – C$15.67 |
| 90 trading days | C$10.97 | C$7.63 – C$15.79 |
Methodology: Range is calculated using 30-day realized volatility via geometric Brownian motion (log-normal model). 68% band = ±1σ, 95% band = ±2σ. This is a statistical model, not a prediction. Past volatility does not guarantee future results. Not financial advice.
Analyst coverage: 4 analyst(s) cover this name; upcoming EPS consensus is available.
| Fiscal period | Report date | Actual EPS | Estimate | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-12-31 | 2027-03-10 | — | 0.3500 | — |
| 2026-09-30 | 2026-11-04 | 0.2500 | 0.5200 | -51.9% |
| 2026-06-30 | 2026-08-12 | 0.3200 | 0.3700 | -13.5% |
| 2026-03-31 | 2026-05-13 | 0.3700 | 0.4300 | -14.0% |
| 2025-12-31 | 2026-03-11 | -0.1400 | 0.7200 | -119.4% |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-11-12 | 0.6700 | 0.6800 | -1.5% |
Investor takeaway: This is a sharp earnings miss, and it follows three other quarters below expectations. Other reports point to higher Fargo project costs weighing on adjusted EBITDA guidance, even as the revenue outlook improved. Investors will be watching to see whether better project execution and margins turn revenue growth into stronger earnings. Shares closed at C$13.12, below their 50-day and 200-day moving averages. That price action provides context, but it doesn’t explain the decline.
C$0.25 EPS versus C$0.52 estimate
EPS fell 51.9% short of the estimate. NOA.TO has missed estimates for four straight quarters, so investors may focus on whether costs and project execution are improving, not just on revenue growth.
Bull case
There are still potential supports for the business. Other reports say NACG raised its 2026 combined revenue outlook to C$1.7–C$1.8 billion. A five-year oil-sands mobile-fuelling contract is also expected to add about C$135 million to its contractual backlog as operations ramp up in late 2026.
Analysts expect next-quarter EPS of C$0.75 and revenue of C$365.72 million, with both forecast to grow year over year. These are estimates, not results. The company will need to deliver.
Bear case
NACG has missed earnings estimates in each of the past four reported quarters. This quarter, EPS was C$0.25 against an estimate of C$0.52. Reports of lower adjusted EBITDA guidance and higher Fargo project costs also raise concerns about cost control and project profitability.
A statistical 90-day model puts the share price below its latest close, but its wide forecast range points to considerable uncertainty. It shouldn’t be treated as a reliable price target.
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