North American Construction Group reported earnings of C$0.25 per share for the quarter ended September 30, well below the C$0.52 estimate. A costly project revision hurt results, even as the company raised its 2026 revenue outlook.
North American Construction Group Ltd. (TSX: NOA) reported third-quarter 2026 results after markets closed on November 4. Earnings per share missed estimates by 51.9%. It was the company’s fourth straight quarterly earnings miss. The table and chart below show the results by quarter.
Recent earnings trend
North American Construction Group Ltd
NOA.TO
NOA.TO
North American Construction Group Ltd
WealthAwesomeMarket cap
$360.74M
P/E
12.1x
52W high
$23.05
52W low
$12.20
1W change
-18.46%
Beta
1.08
Analyst Price Targets
Based on analyst covering NOA · as of Nov 10, 2026
Wall Street analysts forecast NOA stock price to rise 46.9% over the next 12 months.
Consensus
BullishBased on avg. target vs last close (formal rating unavailable for Canadian listings)
Avg. Target
C$19.86
+46.9% Upside
Previously C$21.29 on Nov 9, 2026
Current Price
C$13.52
Last close
Targets are snapshotted when they change. Unchanged figures keep their original date. Not financial advice.
Wealth Awesome Price Forecast
WA ModelStatistical 90-day price range based on NOA's historical volatility
30-Day Vol
61.9%
Annualized
90-Day Vol
45.1%
Annualized
Trend (90d)
-50.0%
Annualized drift
90d Mean
C$11.31
Expected price
| Horizon | Expected | 68% Range (1σ) |
|---|---|---|
| 30 trading days | C$12.74 | C$10.29 – C$15.77 |
| 60 trading days | C$12.00 | C$8.87 – C$16.24 |
| 90 trading days | C$11.31 | C$7.81 – C$16.37 |
Methodology: Range is calculated using 30-day realized volatility via geometric Brownian motion (log-normal model). 68% band = ±1σ, 95% band = ±2σ. This is a statistical model, not a prediction. Past volatility does not guarantee future results. Not financial advice.
Analyst coverage: 4 analyst(s) cover this name; upcoming EPS consensus is available.
| Fiscal period | Report date | Actual EPS | Estimate | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-12-31 | 2027-03-10 | — | 0.3500 | — |
| 2026-09-30 | 2026-11-04 | 0.2500 | 0.5200 | -51.9% |
| 2026-06-30 | 2026-08-12 | 0.3200 | 0.3700 | -13.5% |
| 2026-03-31 | 2026-05-13 | 0.3700 | 0.4300 | -14.0% |
| 2025-12-31 | 2026-03-11 | -0.1400 | 0.7200 | -119.4% |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-11-12 | 0.6700 | 0.6800 | -1.5% |
Investor takeaway: The shortfall reflects a major project-cost issue, not just a small gap against estimates. A supplemental report says a revised Fargo project forecast added about C$45 million to NACG’s share of costs and contributed to a C$24.2 million net loss. Combined revenue rose 12% year over year to C$438.1 million. NACG also raised its 2026 combined revenue outlook but lowered its adjusted EBITDA guidance. For investors, revenue growth needs to be weighed against project execution and profitability risks.
C$0.25 EPS versus C$0.52 expected
NACG’s earnings per share came in 51.9% below estimates. The company has missed estimates in each of its last four reported quarters. This time, a revised Fargo project forecast added about C$45 million to its share of costs.
Bull case
Revenue growth and higher 2026 guidance point to continued demand for NACG’s heavy equipment and services. Earlier company updates said a five-year oil sands mobile-fuel-services contract is expected to add about C$135 million to its contractual backlog. Its Nuna subsidiary has also pointed to expansion and project opportunities in northern Canada. The average analyst price target of C$19.86 is above the last close of C$13.52, but targets are estimates, not guarantees.
Bear case
NACG has missed earnings estimates for four straight quarters. The latest results also included a major project-cost revision and lower adjusted EBITDA guidance. Its 2.41% profit margin leaves little room for unexpected costs. NOA.TO shares closed below their 50-day and 200-day moving averages after falling 20.19% over the past month. A strong backlog and revenue outlook don’t guarantee that projects will meet expected margins.
Best next step
Keep exploring this topic
If you want to go deeper, these are the most useful follow-up pages and tools for this topic.
Broker comparison
Best trading platforms in Canada
Compare $0-commission brokers before you act on a ticker story.
Safe cash
Best GIC rates in Canada
If the story makes you want to de-risk, compare guaranteed rates next.
HISA roundup
Best high-interest savings accounts
Keep dry powder in a no-fee savings account instead of chequing.
TFSA room
Check TFSA contribution room
Shelter the next contribution before you buy.
Wealth Awesome
Timely coverage of Canadian stocks, earnings, dividends, and market movers for DIY investors. Stories are checked against exchange data and public filings.
View Full Profile →✅ Reviewed by Certified Financial Professionals
This content has been reviewed by CFA® charterholders and Certified Financial Planners (CFP®) with over a decade of experience in Canadian financial markets. All information is fact-checked against official Canadian sources and regulations.
Why these credentials matter: CFA® charterholders complete 900+ hours of rigorous study in investment analysis and ethics. CFP® professionals are held to the highest standards of financial planning competency and fiduciary duty in Canada.
⚠️ Professional Disclaimer
This content is for educational purposes only and should not be considered personalized financial advice. While our team brings professional expertise, individual circumstances vary. For personalized guidance, consult with a qualified financial advisor, tax professional, or mortgage specialist.
