Pan American Silver beat third-quarter earnings estimates, but revenue and silver production fell short.
Pan American Silver Corp. (TSX: PAAS) reported adjusted earnings of US$0.69 per share for the quarter ended September 30, 2026. That was 4.55% above the US$0.66 consensus estimate. Revenue rose 17.7% from a year earlier to US$1.01 billion, but came in 2.34% below the US$1.03 billion estimate. The results show strong cash generation alongside production and operating challenges that investors will want to watch.
Recent earnings trend
Pan American Silver Corp
PAAS.TO
PAAS.TO
Pan American Silver Corp
WealthAwesomeMarket cap
$23.99B
P/E
11.0x
Div. yield
1.20%
Div. / share
$0.68
52W high
$94.49
52W low
$49.89
1W change
+9.93%
Beta
1.61
Analyst Price Targets
Based on analyst covering PAAS · as of Nov 9, 2026
Wall Street analysts forecast PAAS stock price to rise 53.8% over the next 12 months.
Consensus
BullishBased on avg. target vs last close (formal rating unavailable for Canadian listings)
Avg. Target
C$92.07
+53.8% Upside
Previously C$91.01 on Nov 6, 2026
Current Price
C$59.88
Last close
Targets are snapshotted when they change. Unchanged figures keep their original date. Not financial advice.
Wealth Awesome Price Forecast
WA ModelStatistical 90-day price range based on PAAS's historical volatility
30-Day Vol
51.9%
Annualized
90-Day Vol
52.2%
Annualized
Trend (90d)
-39.1%
Annualized drift
90d Mean
C$52.08
Expected price
| Horizon | Expected | 68% Range (1σ) |
|---|---|---|
| 30 trading days | C$57.16 | C$47.78 – C$68.37 |
| 60 trading days | C$54.56 | C$42.34 – C$70.29 |
| 90 trading days | C$52.08 | C$38.18 – C$71.03 |
Methodology: Range is calculated using 30-day realized volatility via geometric Brownian motion (log-normal model). 68% band = ±1σ, 95% band = ±2σ. This is a statistical model, not a prediction. Past volatility does not guarantee future results. Not financial advice.
Analyst coverage: 4 analyst(s) cover this name; upcoming EPS consensus is available.
Beat estimates in 3 of the last 4 comparable quarter(s).
| Fiscal period | Report date | Actual EPS | Estimate | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-12-31 | 2027-02-24 | — | 0.8000 | — |
| 2026-09-30 | 2026-11-04 | 0.6900 | 0.6600 | +4.5% |
| 2026-06-30 | 2026-08-12 | 0.7300 | 0.8700 | -16.1% |
| 2026-03-31 | 2026-05-05 | 1.0900 | 1.0600 | +2.8% |
| 2025-12-31 | 2026-02-18 | 1.1100 | 0.8900 | +24.7% |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-11-12 | 0.4800 | 0.4900 | -2.0% |
Investor takeaway: Higher realized metal prices and strong cash flow helped drive the earnings beat. But silver production missed expectations, and Pan American lowered its gold production guidance. The company returned US$300 million to shareholders during the quarter. For Canadian investors, the key question is whether it can maintain strong cash flow while resolving operational setbacks.
US$377 million
Pan American generated US$377 million in attributable free cash flow in Q3 2026, helping fund US$300 million in shareholder returns. But silver output came in below expectations, and the company lowered its gold production guidance.
Bull case
Pan American generated US$377 million in attributable free cash flow in Q3 and US$1.2 billion in the first nine months of 2026. It ended the quarter with US$1.9 billion in cash and US$3.4 billion in available liquidity, and returned US$300 million to shareholders. Silver all-in sustaining costs were US$11.21 per ounce, below the quarterly outlook. The company expects full-year silver costs to land near the low end of its guidance. It also reported a 35.16% profit margin and a 1.20% dividend yield.
Bear case
Attributable silver production was 6.1 million ounces, below analysts’ estimate of 6.38 million ounces. Lower grades at Juanicipio and Cerro Moro contributed to the shortfall. Revenue also missed consensus, and Pan American expects full-year silver production to be near the low end of its outlook. The company cut gold production guidance to 660,000–680,000 ounces and raised its gold all-in sustaining cost guidance to US$2,000–US$2,150 per ounce. Remediation work at Jacobina and a roughly 40-day mill repair at Huaron add near-term uncertainty. Escobal remains suspended, with no restart timeline.
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