Pollard Banknote’s third-quarter earnings came in well below expectations. Revenue edged higher, but adjusted EBITDA fell.
Pollard Banknote Limited (TSX: PBL) reported results for the quarter ended September 30, 2026, after markets closed on November 6. Earnings per share were C$0.31, compared with an estimate of C$2.90—a reported miss of 89.3%. Revenue rose 1.7% from a year earlier to C$158.9 million, while adjusted EBITDA dropped to C$28.3 million from C$32.3 million. The company pointed to manufacturing inefficiencies, a less profitable product mix and the end of its Michigan iLottery contract as factors weighing on results.
Recent earnings trend
Pollard Banknote Limited
PBL.TO
PBL.TO
Pollard Banknote Limited
WealthAwesomeMarket cap
$405.96M
P/E
15.0x
52W high
$20.70
52W low
$14.57
1W change
-8.26%
Beta
0.81
Analyst Price Targets
Based on analyst covering PBL · as of Sep 17, 2026
Wall Street analysts forecast PBL stock price to rise 90.0% over the next 12 months.
Consensus
BullishBased on avg. target vs last close (formal rating unavailable for Canadian listings)
Avg. Target
C$28.50
+90.0% Upside
Current Price
C$15.00
Last close
Targets are snapshotted when they change. Unchanged figures keep their original date. Not financial advice.
Wealth Awesome Price Forecast
WA ModelStatistical 90-day price range based on PBL's historical volatility
30-Day Vol
27.3%
Annualized
90-Day Vol
26.4%
Annualized
Trend (90d)
-50.0%
Annualized drift
90d Mean
C$12.55
Expected price
| Horizon | Expected | 68% Range (1σ) |
|---|---|---|
| 30 trading days | C$14.13 | C$12.86 – C$15.53 |
| 60 trading days | C$13.32 | C$11.66 – C$15.21 |
| 90 trading days | C$12.55 | C$10.66 – C$14.77 |
Methodology: Range is calculated using 30-day realized volatility via geometric Brownian motion (log-normal model). 68% band = ±1σ, 95% band = ±2σ. This is a statistical model, not a prediction. Past volatility does not guarantee future results. Not financial advice.
Analyst coverage: 1 analyst(s) cover this name; upcoming EPS consensus is available.
| Fiscal period | Report date | Actual EPS | Estimate | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-12-31 | 2027-03-17 | — | 0.4800 | — |
| 2026-09-30 | 2026-11-06 | 0.3100 | 2.9000 | -89.3% |
| 2026-06-30 | 2026-08-12 | 0.4000 | 0.4000 | +0.0% |
| 2026-03-31 | 2026-05-13 | 0.1300 | 0.3900 | -66.7% |
| 2025-12-31 | 2026-03-10 | 0.1700 | 0.3900 | -56.4% |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-11-12 | 0.4000 | 0.5200 | -23.1% |
Investor takeaway: Pollard’s earnings fell far short of estimates, and adjusted EBITDA declined despite modest revenue growth. The company has missed estimates in three of its last four reported quarters, with one quarter in line. This quarter’s gap was especially large. You can follow PBL.TO’s results and valuation on the PBL stock page.
C$0.31 EPS versus C$2.90 estimated
The C$2.59-per-share difference amounts to a reported miss of 89.3%. Revenue grew 1.7% to C$158.9 million, but adjusted EBITDA fell to C$28.3 million from C$32.3 million. The recent-earnings table shows three misses and one in-line result across the four latest reported quarters.
Bull case
Revenue grew year over year, and Pollard was selected as the apparent successful bidder for a new five-year Kansas iLottery contract, with an option to extend it for two years. The contract is expected to begin in late 2026. For the next reported quarter, analysts estimate EPS of C$0.59, up from C$0.37 a year earlier, and revenue of C$168.09 million. These forecasts suggest expectations for improvement, but they don’t guarantee a recovery.
Bear case
Adjusted EBITDA fell C$4.0 million from a year earlier. Manufacturing inefficiencies and a less profitable product mix also weighed on results, suggesting the pressure goes beyond the end of the Michigan contract. Pollard has missed estimates in three of its last four reported quarters, with one in line. Its last closing price of C$15.00 was below its 50-day moving average of C$16.82 and its 200-day average of C$17.61. The company’s reported profit margin was 4.49%, making execution and profitability worth watching.
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