Source Energy Services Ltd reported a significant earnings miss in its latest quarter, raising questions about its ability to withstand market challenges.
In its second-quarter earnings report released on July 29, 2026, Source Energy Services Ltd (SHLE.TO) reported an EPS of -0.37, which fell well short of the analyst estimate of 0.17. This resulted in a surprising negative variance of 317.65%. Unfortunately, this continues a trend of disappointing earnings for the company, which has not met estimates in any of its last four quarters.
Recent earnings trend
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Source Energy Services Ltd
SHLE.TO
SHLE.TO
Source Energy Services Ltd
WealthAwesomeMarket cap
$150.88M
52W high
$18.74
52W low
$10.34
1W change
-0.85%
Beta
2.44
Analyst Price Targets
Based on analyst covering SHLE
Wall Street analysts forecast SHLE stock price to rise 31.5% over the next 12 months.
Consensus
BullishBased on avg. target vs last close (formal rating unavailable for Canadian listings)
Avg. Target
C$15.25
+31.5% Upside
Current Price
C$11.60
Last close
Analyst ratings and price targets are updated periodically. Not financial advice.
Wealth Awesome Price Forecast
WA ModelStatistical 90-day price range based on SHLE's historical volatility
30-Day Vol
31.6%
Annualized
90-Day Vol
40.0%
Annualized
Trend (90d)
-50.0%
Annualized drift
90d Mean
C$9.70
Expected price
| Horizon | Expected | 68% Range (1ฯ) |
|---|---|---|
| 30 trading days | C$10.93 | C$9.80 โ C$12.19 |
| 60 trading days | C$10.30 | C$8.83 โ C$12.02 |
| 90 trading days | C$9.70 | C$8.03 โ C$11.72 |
Methodology: Range is calculated using 30-day realized volatility via geometric Brownian motion (log-normal model). 68% band = ยฑ1ฯ, 95% band = ยฑ2ฯ. This is a statistical model, not a prediction. Past volatility does not guarantee future results. Not financial advice.
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Analyst coverage: 1 analyst(s) cover this name; upcoming EPS consensus is available.
| Fiscal period | Report date | Actual EPS | Estimate | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 | 2026-11-05 | โ | 0.5700 | โ |
| 2026-06-30 | 2026-07-29 | -0.3700 | 0.1700 | -317.6% |
| 2026-03-31 | 2026-05-07 | -0.2521 | 0.5600 | -145.0% |
| 2025-12-31 | 2026-02-26 | 0.1300 | 0.3200 | -59.4% |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-11-06 | -0.1900 | 0.0900 | -311.1% |
| 2025-06-30 | 2025-07-30 | 0.5800 | 0.6500 | -10.8% |
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Investor takeaway: With a major earnings miss and declining revenue, investors should be cautious about Source Energy Services. Although management expects a rebound in Canadian activity in the latter half of 2026, the current performance raises concerns about the company's ability to recover amidst fluctuating natural gas prices and shifts in demand.
Bull case
If Source can successfully tackle its operational challenges and take advantage of the anticipated increase in Canadian demand, along with strong U.S. mine-gate sales, it could recover lost ground and improve its financial performance.
Bear case
On the other hand, continued low natural gas prices and delayed customer projects could further strain Source's revenues. The company's history of missing earnings estimates raises doubts about its operational effectiveness and ability to adapt to market changes.
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