Source Energy Services Ltd's recent earnings report shows a significant miss on EPS, raising concerns about its operational effectiveness amid changing market conditions.
Source Energy Services Ltd (SHLE.TO) reported its second-quarter earnings on July 29, 2026, with an EPS of -0.371, well below the estimated EPS of 0.17. This 318.2% miss continues a troubling trend for the company, which has not met earnings estimates in its last four quarters.
Recent earnings trend
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Source Energy Services Ltd
SHLE.TO
SHLE.TO
Source Energy Services Ltd
WealthAwesomeMarket cap
$150.93M
52W high
$18.74
52W low
$10.34
1W change
-8.19%
Beta
2.43
Analyst Price Targets
Based on analyst covering SHLE
Wall Street analysts forecast SHLE stock price to rise 32.0% over the next 12 months.
Consensus
BullishBased on avg. target vs last close (formal rating unavailable for Canadian listings)
Avg. Target
C$15.25
+32.0% Upside
Current Price
C$11.55
Last close
Analyst ratings and price targets are updated periodically. Not financial advice.
Wealth Awesome Price Forecast
WA ModelStatistical 90-day price range based on SHLE's historical volatility
30-Day Vol
30.3%
Annualized
90-Day Vol
39.8%
Annualized
Trend (90d)
-50.0%
Annualized drift
90d Mean
C$9.66
Expected price
| Horizon | Expected | 68% Range (1σ) |
|---|---|---|
| 30 trading days | C$10.88 | C$9.80 – C$12.08 |
| 60 trading days | C$10.25 | C$8.84 – C$11.89 |
| 90 trading days | C$9.66 | C$8.06 – C$11.58 |
Methodology: Range is calculated using 30-day realized volatility via geometric Brownian motion (log-normal model). 68% band = ±1σ, 95% band = ±2σ. This is a statistical model, not a prediction. Past volatility does not guarantee future results. Not financial advice.
Analyst coverage: 1 analyst(s) cover this name; upcoming EPS consensus is available.
| Fiscal period | Report date | Actual EPS | Estimate | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-30 | 2026-07-29 | -0.3710 | 0.1700 | -318.2% |
| 2026-03-31 | 2026-05-07 | -0.2521 | 0.5600 | -145.0% |
| 2025-12-31 | 2026-02-26 | 0.1300 | 0.3200 | -59.4% |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-11-06 | -0.1900 | 0.0900 | -311.1% |
| 2025-06-30 | 2025-07-30 | 0.5800 | 0.6500 | -10.8% |
| 2025-03-31 | 2025-05-08 | 0.7500 | 0.7600 | -1.3% |
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Investor takeaway: The large earnings miss raises red flags for investors, especially given the company's declining revenues and sales volumes. However, the expected improvement in Canadian demand and strong U.S. mine-gate sales could offer some hope for recovery.
Earnings Miss: EPS at -0.371 vs Estimated 0.17
This represents a staggering 318.2% miss, marking the fourth consecutive quarter in which Source Energy has failed to meet EPS estimates.
Bull case
If Source Energy can take advantage of the expected rise in Canadian demand and maintain strong U.S. sales, it could turn around its current trend of underperformance and regain investor confidence.
Bear case
Ongoing weakness in natural gas prices and completion activity could further impact Source Energy's financial performance, leading to more missed estimates and declining investor sentiment.
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