Tamarack Valley’s Q3 earnings missed estimates, but the company still generated C$92.4 million in free funds flow, grew Clearwater production and ended the quarter with net cash.
Tamarack Valley Energy (TSX: TVE) reported basic earnings per share of C$0.21 for the third quarter of 2026, 22.2% below the C$0.27 estimate. But the quarter also brought 16% year-over-year growth in Clearwater production, to 55,298 boe per day, C$92.4 million in free funds flow and C$141.2 million in net cash. For Canadian investors, the question is whether that cash generation can support planned growth and shareholder returns as oil prices change and the Headwater combination moves ahead.
Recent earnings trend
Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd
TVE.TO
TVE.TO
Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd
WealthAwesomeMarket cap
$6.79B
P/E
19.0x
Div. yield
1.05%
Div. / share
$0.15
52W high
$15.16
52W low
$5.98
1W change
-2.18%
Beta
1.14
Analyst Price Targets
Based on analyst covering TVE · as of Oct 26, 2026
Wall Street analysts forecast TVE stock price to rise 19.5% over the next 12 months.
Consensus
BullishBased on avg. target vs last close (formal rating unavailable for Canadian listings)
Avg. Target
C$17.13
+19.5% Upside
Previously C$16.98 on Oct 23, 2026
Current Price
C$14.33
Last close
Targets are snapshotted when they change. Unchanged figures keep their original date. Not financial advice.
Wealth Awesome Price Forecast
WA ModelStatistical 90-day price range based on TVE's historical volatility
30-Day Vol
25.2%
Annualized
90-Day Vol
34.1%
Annualized
Trend (90d)
+37.0%
Annualized drift
90d Mean
C$16.35
Expected price
| Horizon | Expected | 68% Range (1σ) |
|---|---|---|
| 30 trading days | C$14.98 | C$13.73 – C$16.34 |
| 60 trading days | C$15.65 | C$13.84 – C$17.70 |
| 90 trading days | C$16.35 | C$14.06 – C$19.02 |
Methodology: Range is calculated using 30-day realized volatility via geometric Brownian motion (log-normal model). 68% band = ±1σ, 95% band = ±2σ. This is a statistical model, not a prediction. Past volatility does not guarantee future results. Not financial advice.
Analyst coverage: 1 analyst(s) cover this name; upcoming EPS consensus is available.
Beat estimates in 2 of the last 4 comparable quarter(s).
| Fiscal period | Report date | Actual EPS | Estimate | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-12-31 | 2027-02-24 | — | 0.2600 | — |
| 2026-09-30 | 2026-10-27 | 0.2100 | 0.2700 | -22.2% |
| 2026-06-30 | 2026-07-27 | 0.4300 | 0.3900 | +10.3% |
| 2026-03-31 | 2026-05-06 | 0.0100 | 0.1400 | -92.9% |
| 2025-12-31 | 2026-02-25 | 0.1200 | 0.0200 | +500.0% |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-10-29 | -0.5000 | 0.0600 | -933.3% |
Investor takeaway: The earnings miss matters, but it doesn’t tell the whole story. Tamarack generated substantial free funds flow and grew Clearwater output, though revenue and free funds flow were both lower than a year earlier. Buybacks, a planned dividend increase and the Headwater transaction put cash allocation and execution in focus. Investors should weigh those plans against commodity-price exposure and competing demands on cash.
C$92.4 million in Q3 free funds flow
Free funds flow offers a counterpoint to the earnings miss. Tamarack generated C$0.19 per diluted share and ended the quarter with C$141.2 million in net cash. Still, free funds flow was down 3% from Q3 2025. Investors will want to see whether production growth and waterflood performance can sustain cash generation as investment and shareholder returns increase.
Bull case
Clearwater production grew 16% year over year, supported by drilling and waterflood expansion. Tamarack generated C$92.4 million in free funds flow in Q3 and C$375.3 million year to date. Net cash of C$141.2 million and about C$1.35 billion in available funding give the company room to maneuver. The planned Headwater combination is expected to add production and drilling inventory. Tamarack also plans to raise its quarterly dividend and continues to repurchase shares.
Bear case
Earnings per share missed the calendar estimate by 22.2%, and free funds flow fell 3% year over year despite higher oil and natural gas sales. Tamarack is increasing its capital program and shareholder returns while preparing to integrate Headwater. Lower commodity prices, rising costs or integration challenges could leave less cash for investment and distributions. One quarter of cash generation doesn’t guarantee that payouts will remain sustainable.
Analysis
Tamarack reported basic earnings per share of C$0.21 for the quarter ended September 30, 2026, compared with the calendar estimate of C$0.27—a 22.2% miss. Over its last four reported quarters, the company has had two beats and two misses. The recent earnings trend table shows the quarter-by-quarter results.
The operating figures add context. Tamarack’s Clearwater assets produced 55,298 boe per day, up 16% from a year earlier. Cash from operating activities was C$247.7 million, adjusted funds flow was C$214.0 million, and free funds flow was C$92.4 million, or C$0.19 per diluted share. Year-to-date free funds flow reached C$375.3 million.
Oil and natural gas sales rose 19% year over year to C$468.7 million. Net income was C$98.8 million, compared with a net loss of C$248.8 million in Q3 2025. Tamarack also reported C$141.2 million in net cash and C$1.35 billion in available funding at quarter-end. These figures show why it’s worth considering cash flow and operating performance alongside the earnings miss.
Analysis
Tamarack invested C$120.5 million in Q3 and C$312.6 million year to date. Its waterflood program continued to expand, with water injection rates above 60,000 barrels per day at quarter-end. Management says the program supports production growth and reservoir performance. Investors will want to track whether those investments lead to sustained cash generation.
The company repurchased 4.6 million shares for C$61.7 million in Q3. Year-to-date repurchases totalled 15.8 million shares, costing C$189.1 million. After the expected completion of its all-stock Headwater transaction in mid-to-late November, Tamarack plans to raise its quarterly dividend by 20%, from C$0.05 to C$0.06 per share. The deal is expected to add 25,000 boe per day of production and expand Tamarack’s Clearwater position.
With investment, buybacks and a higher dividend all in the plan, the durability of Tamarack’s cash flow matters. The company generated meaningful free funds flow in Q3, but that figure was down year over year, and the larger capital program adds to the demands on cash. Commodity prices and execution remain key variables. See the Tamarack Valley Energy overview for more on the company’s fundamentals.
Analysis
The average analyst price target is C$17.13, compared with the C$14.33 last close in the supplied data. That implies 19.5% upside. The average target suggests a bullish consensus, though a formal rating isn’t available for Canadian listings. Treat the analyst price-target details as one input, not a promise of future performance.
Wealth Awesome’s statistical 90-day price model gives a mean forecast of C$16.35. Its 68% range is C$14.06 to C$19.02, and its 95% range is C$12.09 to C$22.12. This model isn’t financial advice. Its ranges reflect uncertainty, and it doesn’t account for your circumstances. Consider the price forecast and model ranges alongside the company’s operating risks and transaction plans.
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