In its Q2 2026 earnings call, TC Energy Corp reported a solid 12% year-over-year growth in EBITDA, driven by strong asset performance and ambitious expansion plans. This growth comes as the company sanctions $3 billion in new projects and targets a backlog of $7 billion.
On July 30, 2026, TC Energy Corp (NYSE: TRP) announced impressive financial results, highlighting a 12% increase in comparable EBITDA compared to the previous year. The company is ramping up its growth initiatives, including significant investments in projects across Canada and the U.S., while facing some regulatory uncertainties that could impact future developments.
Investor takeaway: Long-term Canadian investors should keep an eye on TC Energy's growth trajectory and regulatory developments as the company expands its project backlog amidst strong operational performance.
Advertisement
Earn cash back with a smarter spending account
Open a KOHO account and start earning on everyday purchases — no annual fee on the base plan.
TC Energy Corp Pref Series 3
TRP-PB.TO
TRP-PB.TO
TC Energy Corp Pref Series 3
WealthAwesomeMarket cap
$102.84B
P/E
6.0x
Div. yield
17.35%
Div. / share
$3.43
52W high
$20.00
52W low
$14.77
Beta
0.98
Wealth Awesome Price Forecast
WA ModelStatistical 90-day price range based on TRP-PB's historical volatility
30-Day Vol
9.3%
Annualized
90-Day Vol
12.9%
Annualized
Trend (90d)
+17.2%
Annualized drift
90d Mean
C$21.22
Expected price
| Horizon | Expected | 68% Range (1σ) |
|---|---|---|
| 30 trading days | C$20.37 | C$19.73 – C$21.04 |
| 60 trading days | C$20.79 | C$19.87 – C$21.76 |
| 90 trading days | C$21.22 | C$20.07 – C$22.44 |
Methodology: Range is calculated using 30-day realized volatility via geometric Brownian motion (log-normal model). 68% band = ±1σ, 95% band = ±2σ. This is a statistical model, not a prediction. Past volatility does not guarantee future results. Not financial advice.
Why TC Energy's $3 Billion Project Sanctioning Matters
TC Energy's announcement of $3 billion in sanctioned projects shows its confidence in operational performance and market demand, especially in Alberta, where gas demand is increasing. This growth is crucial for maintaining the company's competitive edge and achieving its target EBITDA range of $11.6 to $11.8 billion for 2026.
Bull case
- Strong Growth: The 12% EBITDA growth indicates solid operational efficiency and effective project execution.
- Expanding Backlog: With a project backlog of about $7 billion, TC Energy is well-positioned for future growth, particularly with the Crossroads project nearing sanctioning.
- Market Demand: The rising demand for natural gas in Alberta and across North America supports the company's growth strategies.
Bear case
- Regulatory Uncertainty: The unclear long-term regulatory framework for NGTL investments poses risks for project underwriting.
- Funding Challenges: Expected growth capital needs in 2029-2030 may require interim solutions, potentially creating financial strain.
- Market Constraints: Supply chain issues and regional pushback on projects could slow down development.
How TC Energy's Growth Projects Are Shaping the Future
Advertisement
TC Energy's recent earnings call highlighted the company's commitment to growth with around $3 billion in sanctioned projects this year. The Crossroads project, a key part of their expansion strategy, is expected to significantly boost their backlog, which has now reached about $7 billion. This growth responds to rising demand in Alberta and aligns with broader trends in North America, where gas demand is shifting towards power generation.
Navigating Regulatory Challenges in the Canadian Energy Sector
Despite the positive financial results, TC Energy faces challenges related to the regulatory environment for its NGTL investments. The uncertainty around the long-term return framework could complicate future project underwriting. As the company engages customers and gauges demand through open seasons, the outcomes of these discussions will be crucial for securing funding and advancing projects.
The Impact of Market Demand on TC Energy's Strategy
The demand for natural gas in Alberta is expected to grow significantly, with TC Energy reporting an incremental demand increase of 8 to 10 Bcf/d. This rising demand is likely to support the company's upcoming phased expansions planned for 2030 to 2032. By leveraging its existing infrastructure and optimizing operations, TC Energy aims to capitalize on this growth, ensuring it stays competitive in the evolving energy market.
Advertisement
Advertisement
Wealth Awesome
Timely coverage of Canadian stocks, earnings, dividends, and market movers for DIY investors. Stories are checked against exchange data and public filings.
View Full Profile →✅ Reviewed by Certified Financial Professionals
This content has been reviewed by CFA® charterholders and Certified Financial Planners (CFP®) with over a decade of experience in Canadian financial markets. All information is fact-checked against official Canadian sources and regulations.
Why these credentials matter: CFA® charterholders complete 900+ hours of rigorous study in investment analysis and ethics. CFP® professionals are held to the highest standards of financial planning competency and fiduciary duty in Canada.
⚠️ Professional Disclaimer
This content is for educational purposes only and should not be considered personalized financial advice. While our team brings professional expertise, individual circumstances vary. For personalized guidance, consult with a qualified financial advisor, tax professional, or mortgage specialist.
