Topaz Energy reported third-quarter EPS of C$0.32, beating the C$0.30 estimate. Royalty production growth and higher realized commodity prices helped lift cash flow.
Topaz Energy Corp. (TSX: TPZ) released its third-quarter 2026 results after market close on November 2. For the quarter ended September 30, the energy royalty and infrastructure company reported calendar EPS of C$0.32, 6.7% above the C$0.30 estimate. After missing estimates in two of the previous three comparable quarters, Topaz returned to positive territory, though its recent results have been mixed. Royalty production rose 9% year over year, and realized commodity prices were 42% higher.
Recent earnings trend
Topaz Energy Corp
TPZ.TO
TPZ.TO
Topaz Energy Corp
WealthAwesomeMarket cap
$4.86B
P/E
27.9x
Div. yield
4.38%
Div. / share
$1.37
52W high
$33.17
52W low
$23.60
1W change
-1.50%
Beta
0.61
Analyst Price Targets
Based on analyst covering TPZ · as of Oct 30, 2026
Wall Street analysts forecast TPZ stock price to rise 20.5% over the next 12 months.
Consensus
BullishBased on avg. target vs last close (formal rating unavailable for Canadian listings)
Avg. Target
C$36.32
+20.5% Upside
Previously C$36.35 on Oct 23, 2026
Current Price
C$30.14
Last close
Targets are snapshotted when they change. Unchanged figures keep their original date. Not financial advice.
Wealth Awesome Price Forecast
WA ModelStatistical 90-day price range based on TPZ's historical volatility
30-Day Vol
24.3%
Annualized
90-Day Vol
23.1%
Annualized
Trend (90d)
+0.6%
Annualized drift
90d Mean
C$30.21
Expected price
| Horizon | Expected | 68% Range (1σ) |
|---|---|---|
| 30 trading days | C$30.16 | C$27.74 – C$32.80 |
| 60 trading days | C$30.18 | C$26.81 – C$33.98 |
| 90 trading days | C$30.21 | C$26.13 – C$34.92 |
Methodology: Range is calculated using 30-day realized volatility via geometric Brownian motion (log-normal model). 68% band = ±1σ, 95% band = ±2σ. This is a statistical model, not a prediction. Past volatility does not guarantee future results. Not financial advice.
Analyst coverage: 1 analyst(s) cover this name; upcoming EPS consensus is available.
Beat estimates in 2 of the last 4 comparable quarter(s).
| Fiscal period | Report date | Actual EPS | Estimate | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 | 2026-11-02 | 0.3200 | 0.3000 | +6.7% |
| 2026-06-30 | 2026-07-26 | 0.2900 | 0.3500 | -17.1% |
| 2026-03-31 | 2026-05-05 | 0.2500 | 0.3900 | -35.9% |
| 2025-12-31 | 2026-02-24 | 0.2100 | 0.1100 | +90.9% |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-11-03 | 0.1000 | 0.0700 | +42.9% |
| 2025-06-30 | 2025-07-28 | 0.0800 | 0.1100 | -27.3% |
Investor takeaway: Production growth and stronger commodity prices supported higher cash flow and free cash flow. Topaz also reduced net debt year over year and reaffirmed its 2026 production and infrastructure revenue guidance. But investors should consider the company’s exposure to commodity prices and its reliance on operators’ drilling activity. Topaz declared a quarterly dividend of C$0.35, or C$1.40 annualized, and reported a 62% payout ratio for the quarter.
C$0.32 EPS, 6.7% above estimate
Calendar EPS was C$0.02 above the C$0.30 estimate. Topaz reported third-quarter cash flow of C$0.56 per share and free cash flow of C$0.55 per share. Revenue and other income totaled C$104.3 million: 78% came from royalties and 22% from infrastructure and other income.
Bull case
Royalty production growth, higher realized prices and lower cash expenses helped increase quarterly cash flow per share by 14% year over year. Free cash flow per share rose 17%, and net debt fell 13%. Topaz’s royalty interests across Tourmaline acreage and its activity across several regions give it exposure to development without the same direct capital costs as an operator. The company also reaffirmed its 2026 guidance.
Bear case
Topaz remains exposed to commodity-price swings. During the quarter, it reported natural gas volume curtailments related to maintenance and price volatility. Royalty production also depends on third-party operators’ development plans. Recent earnings results have been mixed, with two estimate beats in the last four comparable quarters. The reported P/E of about 28 and dividend yield of 4.38% provide context, but neither guarantees future returns or a sustainable dividend.
Analysis
Topaz’s calendar EPS of C$0.32 was 6.7% above the C$0.30 estimate. Revenue and other income totaled C$104.3 million, including C$81.5 million from royalty production and C$22.9 million from processing revenue and other income. Cash flow rose 14% year over year to C$87.0 million, or C$0.56 per share. Free cash flow increased 17% to C$85.4 million, or C$0.55 per share. Topaz attributed the gains to 9% royalty production growth, 42% higher realized commodity prices and 13% lower cash expenses. The earnings trend table below shows estimates and results for recent quarters.
Analysis
Average royalty production was 23,507 boe/d, up 9% from the third quarter of 2025. Total liquids made up 30% of production. Topaz said 175 gross wells were drilled on its royalty acreage during the quarter, and its infrastructure assets had 98% utilization.
The company ended the quarter with C$463.5 million in net debt, down C$71.9 million year over year. Net debt was 1.1 times annualized quarterly EBITDA. The board declared a fourth-quarter dividend of C$0.35 per share, payable December 31 to shareholders of record on December 15.
Topaz reaffirmed its 2026 guidance: average annual royalty production of 23,900 to 24,300 boe/d and about C$93 million in infrastructure processing revenue and other income. For more details, visit the Topaz Energy stock page.
Analysis
The supplied analyst-target data shows an average target of C$36.32, compared with the last close of C$30.14. That implies 20.5% upside to the average target. The data labels the consensus bullish based on the average target versus the last close, but does not provide a formal rating for this Canadian listing. Analyst targets are estimates, not guarantees. See the analyst ratings section for details.
Analysis
Wealth Awesome’s statistical 90-day price model gives a mean forecast of C$30.21, close to the November 2 reference price of C$30.14. The model’s 68% range is C$26.13 to C$34.92, and its 95% range is C$22.60 to C$40.37. It estimates annualized drift of 0.6% and 30-day volatility of 24.3%. This is a statistical model, not financial advice or a guaranteed prediction. See the price prediction section for more.
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