Topaz Energy's recent earnings report reveals a significant miss against expectations, raising questions about its future performance.
Topaz Energy Corp (TPZ.TO) reported its second-quarter earnings on July 27, 2026, showing an adjusted net income of C$45.79 million, or C$0.29 per share. This fell short of analysts' expectations of C$0.35 per share, marking a 17.14% miss. While the company experienced strong revenue growth, the disappointing earnings have led investors to rethink their outlook.
Recent earnings trend
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Topaz Energy Corp
TPZ.TO
TPZ.TO
Topaz Energy Corp
WealthAwesomeMarket cap
$4.42B
P/E
30.6x
Div. yield
4.83%
Div. / share
$1.37
52W high
$33.17
52W low
$23.29
1W change
-2.71%
Beta
0.51
Analyst Price Targets
Based on analyst covering TPZ · as of Oct 1, 2026
Wall Street analysts forecast TPZ stock price to rise 26.1% over the next 12 months.
Consensus
BullishBased on avg. target vs last close (formal rating unavailable for Canadian listings)
Avg. Target
C$35.80
+26.1% Upside
Previously C$36.18 on Sep 30, 2026
Current Price
C$28.38
Last close
Targets are snapshotted when they change. Unchanged figures keep their original date. Not financial advice.
Wealth Awesome Price Forecast
WA ModelStatistical 90-day price range based on TPZ's historical volatility
30-Day Vol
25.1%
Annualized
90-Day Vol
23.6%
Annualized
Trend (90d)
-29.6%
Annualized drift
90d Mean
C$25.54
Expected price
| Horizon | Expected | 68% Range (1σ) |
|---|---|---|
| 30 trading days | C$27.40 | C$25.12 – C$29.88 |
| 60 trading days | C$26.45 | C$23.40 – C$29.90 |
| 90 trading days | C$25.54 | C$21.98 – C$29.67 |
Methodology: Range is calculated using 30-day realized volatility via geometric Brownian motion (log-normal model). 68% band = ±1σ, 95% band = ±2σ. This is a statistical model, not a prediction. Past volatility does not guarantee future results. Not financial advice.
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Analyst coverage: 1 analyst(s) cover this name; upcoming EPS consensus is available.
Beat estimates in 2 of the last 4 comparable quarter(s).
| Fiscal period | Report date | Actual EPS | Estimate | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-30 | 2026-07-27 | 0.2900 | 0.3500 | -17.1% |
| 2026-03-31 | 2026-05-05 | 0.2500 | 0.3900 | -35.9% |
| 2025-12-31 | 2026-02-24 | 0.2100 | 0.1100 | +90.9% |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-11-03 | 0.1000 | 0.0700 | +42.9% |
| 2025-06-30 | 2025-07-28 | 0.0800 | 0.1100 | -27.3% |
| 2025-03-31 | 2025-05-05 | 0.0800 | 0.0700 | +14.3% |
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Investor takeaway: Despite the earnings miss, Topaz Energy's revenue growth and increased royalty production guidance suggest potential for long-term stability. Investors should consider this alongside recent performance trends and the broader energy market conditions.
Earnings Miss by 17.1% Despite Strong Revenue Growth
Topaz's revenue surged to C$111.2 million, a 66% increase from the previous year. However, the earnings per share fell short of expectations, highlighting a disconnect between revenue growth and profitability.
Bull case
Topaz Energy's impressive revenue growth of 66% year-over-year, fueled by increased royalty production and a solid acquisition strategy, positions the company for future expansion. The rise in annual average royalty production guidance shows positive operational momentum.
Bear case
The significant earnings miss raises concerns about cost management and operational efficiency. With a high P/E ratio of 37.56 and a volatile market, investors may question the sustainability of growth amid increasing competition in the energy sector.
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