Topaz Energy Corp's recent earnings report reveals a significant miss on EPS estimates, raising questions about future performance.
Topaz Energy Corp (TPZ.TO) released its second-quarter financial results on July 27, 2026, reporting an adjusted net income of C$45.79 million, translating to earnings per share (EPS) of C$0.29. This figure fell short of analysts' expectations, which had set the estimate at C$0.35, resulting in a surprise of -17.14%. This miss comes amid a backdrop of rising production and strategic acquisitions, making the results particularly noteworthy for Canadian investors.
Recent earnings trend
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Topaz Energy Corp
TPZ.TO
TPZ.TO
Topaz Energy Corp
WealthAwesomeMarket cap
$4.42B
P/E
30.6x
Div. yield
4.83%
Div. / share
$1.37
52W high
$33.17
52W low
$23.29
1W change
-2.71%
Beta
0.51
Analyst Price Targets
Based on analyst covering TPZ · as of Oct 1, 2026
Wall Street analysts forecast TPZ stock price to rise 26.1% over the next 12 months.
Consensus
BullishBased on avg. target vs last close (formal rating unavailable for Canadian listings)
Avg. Target
C$35.80
+26.1% Upside
Previously C$36.18 on Sep 30, 2026
Current Price
C$28.38
Last close
Targets are snapshotted when they change. Unchanged figures keep their original date. Not financial advice.
Wealth Awesome Price Forecast
WA ModelStatistical 90-day price range based on TPZ's historical volatility
30-Day Vol
25.1%
Annualized
90-Day Vol
23.6%
Annualized
Trend (90d)
-29.6%
Annualized drift
90d Mean
C$25.54
Expected price
| Horizon | Expected | 68% Range (1σ) |
|---|---|---|
| 30 trading days | C$27.40 | C$25.12 – C$29.88 |
| 60 trading days | C$26.45 | C$23.40 – C$29.90 |
| 90 trading days | C$25.54 | C$21.98 – C$29.67 |
Methodology: Range is calculated using 30-day realized volatility via geometric Brownian motion (log-normal model). 68% band = ±1σ, 95% band = ±2σ. This is a statistical model, not a prediction. Past volatility does not guarantee future results. Not financial advice.
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Analyst coverage: 1 analyst(s) cover this name; upcoming EPS consensus is available.
Beat estimates in 2 of the last 4 comparable quarter(s).
| Fiscal period | Report date | Actual EPS | Estimate | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-30 | 2026-07-27 | 0.2900 | 0.3500 | -17.1% |
| 2026-03-31 | 2026-05-05 | 0.2500 | 0.3900 | -35.9% |
| 2025-12-31 | 2026-02-24 | 0.2100 | 0.1100 | +90.9% |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-11-03 | 0.1000 | 0.0700 | +42.9% |
| 2025-06-30 | 2025-07-28 | 0.0800 | 0.1100 | -27.3% |
| 2025-03-31 | 2025-05-05 | 0.0800 | 0.0700 | +14.3% |
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Investor takeaway: While Topaz Energy's earnings fell short of estimates, the company continues to show strong operational performance and growth potential, especially with increased production guidance. Investors should weigh the earnings miss against the broader context of the company's growth strategies and market conditions.
Earnings Miss by 17.1% Amid Strong Operational Metrics
Despite the earnings miss, Topaz Energy reported significant growth in cash flow and free cash flow, indicating underlying operational strength that could support future performance.
Bull case
Topaz Energy has shown resilience with record liquids production and a notable increase in cash flow. The company's strategic acquisition of 300,000 acres in key royalty areas could boost future production capabilities. Plus, its increased royalty production guidance points to a positive outlook, even with the recent earnings miss.
Bear case
The earnings miss raises concerns about Topaz's efficiency and profitability in a competitive market. The company's dependence on operator capital allocation for drilling activities also poses risks, especially if market conditions change or if natural gas production declines during the summer months.
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